NEW YORK – Ryan Seacrest and Anderson Cooper will be there. Snoop Dogg too.
But one or two million people in New York's Times Square for New Year's Eve? As Snoop would say, you have to sip on gin and juice.
Crowd-size experts ridicule these mammoth figures worn annually by city officials and event organizers. They said it was impossible to get in the way of so many of the thinnest spectators in such a relatively small space.
The real mass of the Times Square ball probably has fewer than 100,000 people, said crowworship professor G. Keith Still.
"In general, audience numbers are overstated 1
The ratings of viewers are from the New York City Police Department's Ball Falls.
In recent years, the department estimated that 2 million people had seized Times Square. Mayor Bill de Blasio again used a large number on Friday, saying the city was "expecting up to 2 million people in Times Square itself," a bat-shaped zone that runs five blocks from Broadway to 7th Avenue.
Professor of New York University Charles Soife, a mathematician and journalist who has explored statistical manipulation in his book "Proofiness," said the city has an interest in promoting a larger number because "it does not promote the image of New York City as the center of the universe at a certain time consolidates. " and time.
He suggested that fuzzy mathematics and lintier geography were also involved.
"How do you count a participant in Times Square Ball Drop? "Asked soap." Is it anyone who can see the ball or someone being pressed into a bar in Manhattan? "
To accommodate one million revelers, the city in each block of 7th Avenue between Times Square and Central Park would have to be more than the equivalent of a sold-out Yankee stadium whine that starts about fifteen blocks to the north.
Still and his colleagues perform detailed calculations to calculate exact quantities, but even with simple techniques such as measuring Times Square on a map and doing some calculations Clearly, the numbers are not close to 1 million.
Times Square would hold about 51,000 people at a density of 3 people per square meter (square yard), always said noc h, or about 86,000 at 5 people per square meter. It could be as much as 120,000 if the crowd were packed at 7 people per square meter, but he said the density of crowding people from front to back and shoulder to shoulder is unlikely.
These numbers do not count people watching TV from the windows of hotel and office buildings or outlying areas. Nor do they take into account the space occupied by stages, safety devices and exit routes on which people could otherwise stand.
The estimate of the New York crowd has evolved over time. In 1998, the police estimated that around 500,000 people were present. However, at the turn of the millennium towards the end of 1999 Mayor Rudolph Giuliani predicted up to two million.
Accurate public safety ratings are crucial for large events. The wrong number can cause cities to spend too many or too few resources on an event, Still said. But New York manages to crowd the crowds, shoot the revelers into drained areas, despite the puffing of the crowd, so there's no way to get crowded, and check every person for weapons.
Police are planning 65 such pens this year and are located north of Times Square. To get 1 million people into these 65 pens, everyone would have to find around 30,800 people.
The estimate of audience numbers has long been subject to inaccurate conjecture and political pressure.
The arguments about the crowd broke out after he claimed that President Donald Trump had claimed the largest inauguration of the president in history. After a dispute with the leader of the Nation of Islam, Louis Farrakhan, about attending his Million Man March 1995, the National Park Service stopped appreciating the masses for events at the National Mall in Washington DC.
Parades for winning sports teams are some of the most important -the-top estimates. Officials claimed 3.2 million people had crammed the streets of Philadelphia for last year's Eagles Super Bowl parade. The mayor of the city later admitted that the crowd was probably closer to 700,000.
And forget that a million people wrap up the tiny Vatican City for Christmas, Easter, or something else.
"When they are not 17 meters high, they are stacked shoulder to shoulder, so many people can not be found in St. Peter's Square," said Still.