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Home / Business / 2019 could be the worst year for the economy since 08 08 – Axios

2019 could be the worst year for the economy since 08 08 – Axios



Last week was the worst on Wall Street for 10 years. If the Dow and the S & P 500 end in their current state, it will have the worst December since 1931 during the Great Depression.

  • Bloomberg says the S & P 500 is "a bad session" from the end of the decade. long bull market.

Between the lines: Against this backdrop many were open in the financial world when Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin tweeted without actually explaining that yesterday "has one-on-one discussions with the CEOs of the six largest banks convoke the nation. "

  • "The CEOs confirmed that they have sufficient liquidity," the statement said.
  • Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan, tweeted : "If you wanted to create financial market volatility, you would do so."
  • Bloomberg's Headline:
  • "Mnuchin commands to calm markets makes a bad situation worse."

The Big Picture: Almost everything that goes on in the world is bad for the economy, say Felix Salmon and Dion Rabouin in Axios Edge, our weekly eye for business.

  • An incomplete list: Trump attacks the Fed … the trade battle with China … China's growth is slowing down … a possible Brexit catastrophe … slowing German and Italian growth … the French Presidency under victories.

Chris Krueger by Cowen The Washington Research Group, one of the sharpest observers of the collision between Washington and Wall Street, tells me in an email with the subject line "For the night is dark and full of horror ":

  • " 2019 begins with a partial government downturn, fragile markets and leadership vacuums in the White House, the Pentagon, the Department of Justice, the United Nations and the Home Office – at least "
  • " Some call [NearlyeverytoughpolicycatalystinQ1of2019posesasignificantdownsiderisk"

Another worry, according to Dan Senor, a fund manager and former fund manager advisor to spokesman Paul Ryan and senator-elect Mitt Romney: "If we had to fight a real financial crisis in 2019, we will be in much harder waters than in 2008."

  • "In & # 39; 08, sovereign governments support the crisis in the markets with exceptional fiscal and monetary measures their ability to do so was undisputed, "added Senor. "2019, different story."

And Kruger notes how different the US administration is now:

  • "2008 had … the people who took care of the store … like Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Josh Bolten, Steve Hadley, Condi Rice, Bob Gates and Real MPs all had the implicit confidence of the President and the markets – and worked together to prevent a catastrophe. "

Most forecasts reflect the Washington -Chaos and the Global Slowdown:

  • Jon Hilsenrath, The Wall Street Journal's Global Economic Editor writes: "Most private economists expect US growth to slow in 2019. … Global economic growth accelerated In 2017, synchronized with 2018, as the US continued to accelerate, Europe, Japan and China slowed. "

Be smart, by Axios Mark's editor Dion Rabouin:" Hero, because all over the world now is terrible.

  • And he notes this dissonance: "Everything is terrible, but the US data is still good, so most traders and fund managers see this as a buying opportunity. … but the Algos do not buy it.

PS A Little Perspective from Bloomberg: "Even after dropping 17 percent in the past three months, the S & P 500 has risen by 18 percent since Election Day."

Go Deeper : Axios Deep Dive on the Financial Crisis 10 Years Later


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