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7 things that Tesla could not do



19th October 2019 by Zachary Shahan


One year ago this week, I published a story about 8 "impossible" goals that Tesla had achieved. The idea actually came from a joke I sent Elon Musk. I found it so funny (the joke sent to Elon Musk) that he inspired an entire article. In fact, it and several other pieces inspired a whole series of "Tesla Flashbacks". The fact is, Tesla short sellers and other people who benefit from Tesla's failing on a particular day have various "concerns" about Tesla's future. However, if you look back at them after a year or more, it's clear that this was usually nonsense that did not cost anyone a minute.

However, there is no doubt that Tesla has made some very unexpected achievements. One of my favorite songs of all time is "The Impossible Dream" as sung by Roberta Flack. While the dream alluded to in this song is different, it makes me think of Tesla. The company that survived long enough to build a car was an early "impossible dream" that came true, but the dreams did not end there. When the first roadster came off the line, Tesla already had much bigger plans. They were so ambitious that they were ridiculous. Surely Tesla could not reach her.

1. Make model S before the end of 2012. A certain auto journalist (who is now very optimistic about Tesla) bet on Elon Musk in 2009 that Tesla could not roll off a production model S before the end of 2012.

Whoops. I will not select this journalist because it was widely acknowledged that Tesla could not achieve this. The journalist was the norm rather than the exception, and Elon seemed to be faced with impossible opportunities. As we all know, Elon won the bet, and Model S made it into the hands of customers in mid-2012. (Elon still donated $ 1 million to charity, which he promised when he ] lost the bet.) Without a doubt, the task was not easy, since to date no automaker has made an electric car that competes fully with the 2012 S model.

[19659005] 2. Sell more than a few thousand Model S limousines in the US. Aside from the skepticism that Tesla could even produce a single Model S, it was common in the auto industry that Dante's inferno was impossible, that more than a few thousand people a year would buy a Tesla Model S. The smart skepticism of the renowned research firm IHS stated:

"It is possible to sell a few thousand things in this country, just because of the novelty value. IHS Automotive predicts that if Tesla gets it to market, the car is likely to sell at least a few thousand times.

"But the idea that Tesla could sell tens of thousands of Model S sedans in the US is nonsense. The most popular vehicles in this segment sell themselves few tens of thousands, with some models – Audi A6, Jaguar XF, Lexus GS – sold well under 10,000 a year. "

Whoops. As it turned out, Tesla had no problem selling tens of thousands of Model S sedans a year, displacing his competitors in the big luxury car market. For example, in 2018, the Tesla Model S accounted for about 37% of the large sales of luxury cars.

3. 48% CAGR from 2013 to 2020. Tesla had bold dreams in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Well, brave was one way to define it – completely unrealistic was another. At a Tesla [TSLA] stock price of $ 121, Bank of America's analyst team at Tesla set a price target of $ 39 for the stock. The idea that Tesla could achieve its growth goals was utterly absurd. The company summarized, "We estimate that a stock price of $ 120 in 2020 represents a sales volume of over 321,000 vehicles, an increase of 300,000 units over our current 2013e and represents an annualized annualized return on sales of 48%." Bank of America has not done so Consider this at least as realistic, hence the price target of $ 39.

A consistent Tesla critic of Business Insider added some fuel to the burning criticism: "A growth rate of 48% was reached by none other automaker ever. (Was not done = can not be done, this is what the non-dreamers teach you.)

Whoops. Tesla has not only nullified this 7-year growth forecast, but Bank of America's TSLA target of $ 39 was also unfortunate. Do not worry, Bank of America has a new, depressingly pessimistic forecast for Tesla. After all, in one of these years, the sale of Tesla will have to collapse. (Not true?)

4. Have a Tesla Model S automatically change lanes at the push of a button (in 2015). It may now seem like a simple, banal feature to a Tesla – the car can easily change lanes on its own – but in 2014 it was largely impossible. Okay, maybe cars could do that in 2020, but certainly not before. A well-known auto journalist was so convinced of the usual wisdom that he wrote in 2014, "If this autopilot automatically shifts track in a year or so at the touch of a button … I'll publicly eat a Tesla baseball hat on Twitter, Facebook and YouTube. "Good that he and others knew all about Tesla's borders and that this would definitely not happen . Otherwise, he would devour a disgusting, dry baseball hat.

Whoops. In October 2014, Tesla had a big public event where journalists, early Model S owners and other Tesla guests got to know the first version of Tesla Autopilot. The cars could indeed change lanes, with the owners only having to hang up the turn signals. Surprisingly, the above-mentioned critic did not eat a hat, either with a Tesla logo or otherwise.

I'm sure he did not have much faith in Tesla when he released Smart Summon, but at least this time He did not make bets with a hat on the table.

5. Series production of the Tesla Model X. One of the most famous "impossible dreams" of Elon Musk and Tesla was the dream, the Tesla Model X, the Hawkwing doors and everything that everyone knows is a technical impossibility to mass-produce. Again, it is not necessary to highlight a critic, as this was widely adopted in early 2016 and in advance. However, it is likely that Bob Lutz had the most prominent and direct expert commentary on this vehicle. "The Model X seems to not be buildable with these automatic gullwing doors, which everyone in the industry always said were not going to work," he noted. In fact, everyone in the industry knew it. They knew it was either an unrealistic dream, a total fraud, or something in between.

Whoops. If critics knew the difference between gullwing doors and folding wing doors, they might have understood it correctly. Unfortunately, her claims that Tesla could never produce the model X in series proved unwise and inaccurate. Tesla produces tens of thousands of these SUVs every year.

6. Achieve mass production of the Tesla Model 3. However, Model S and Model X were not the only vehicles that Tesla could not produce. The somewhat affordable model 3 was also on the list. Tesla had produced tens of thousands of Model S and X vehicles, but in no case could the company ever produce hundreds of thousands of Model 3 vehicles per year. Everyone knew that. That goal was just crazy. In addition to this madness was the fraudulent idea that Tesla could sell a Model 3 for under $ 40,000. Haha, what a joke of a promise.

Whoops. Tesla could produce the Tesla Model 3 in series and could offer middle-income buyers looking for such a car a Model 3 worth less than $ 40,000. [19659005]

7th Tesla Gigafactory 3. Pfff – You make jokes. Tesla's statements about the rapid construction of a gigafactory in China had to be fraud, lies, smoke and mirrors and flatulence of unicorns. There was no chance Tesla would achieve his goals. The specified schedule and forecasts were proven to be so wrong that they were punishable. In addition, Tesla would crash and burn, presumably to file for bankruptcy before a single Chinese-made car could be delivered to customers.

Whoops. Not only was Gigafactory 3 built at a shockingly fast pace, but it also showed that Tesla critics, who misinterpreted history again and again, had no problem duplicating and increasing their skepticism in the face of real facts. [19659025] Do you remember when @lopezlinette was so damn sure that Tesla would not meet or even exceed Gigafactory 3's expectations @elonmusk ? ¯_ (ツ) _ / ¯ https://t.co/wy8D72TbJy pic.twitter.com/AIGedZofW0

– Viv 🕸 (@flcnhvy) July 16, 2019

Too bad. Maybe next time.

Do you have any other impossible goals that Tesla could not achieve? Do you have any ideas for things that our Tesla vehicles can not?

If you would like to buy a Tesla Model 3 and charge 1,000 miles of free charge, you can use my reference code: https: //ts.la/zachary63404 – or use another one if you have one Friend or family member with a Tesla. I will not cry.

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Tags: Tesla, Tesla Autopilot, Tesla Flashbacks, Tesla Gigafactories, Tesla Gigafactory 3, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model S, Tesla Model X , Tesla Short Seller


About the Author

Zachary Shahan Zach tries to help society to help itself word for word. Most of the time he spends as director and editor-in-chief on CleanTechnica . He is also CEO of Important Media . Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has reported on Cleantech at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the US, Canada and Curacao.

Zach is involved in Tesla's long-term [TSLA] – after years of experience with solar and electric vehicles, he simply trusts in this company and feels like a good cleantech company he can not invest in recommends to Tesla or any other company invest.




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