D Despite numerous evidence that Gary Johnson, the presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party, which received 3% of the vote in 2016, has deprived President Trump of more votes than Hillary Clinton, Neera Tanden still has an ax, with whom he can mess around with actress Susan Sarandon for the support of Jill Stein, the Green's Companion.
Although Clinton still has not won the White House with all his votes, savage leftists have further considered their nightmare scenario: a serious third-party vendor appeared in 2020 to hand Trump a second term.
I do not know what Mooch or anyone else is up to. It would be nice to see Trump competing against a true Conservative for a preselection, but do not let anyone – left or right – sell you in 2020 to run Trump from a third party. That only helps Trump. The math is clear.
– Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom)
August 17, 2019
Nichols is definitely not wrong, but unless Democratic leader Joe Biden claims his persistent and convincing lead, it's hard to see how he's right.
In 2016, voters were asked to choose between a blovial billionaire accused of sexual assault by several women and a corrupt professional politician protecting her husband from credible allegations of sexual assault by several women. Hillary Clinton had always been a conservative Democrat, and Donald Trump had been a fairly liberal Republican after being a Democrat. Voters did not trust any of them, leading to a largely non-ideological choice between two liars with similar policies and malevolent personal behavior.
The upcoming race could offer voters a completely different choice. If Biden wins the nomination, the uprising against the Republicans in the 2018 suburbs could be repeated. Biden's policy is not too different from Hillary's, but on a personal level, most Americans like him and trust him. Even if a particular coalition of dissatisfied republicans marginalize Biden in front of Trump, it's hard to imagine the Ohio Americans risking a Trump victory by voting for a hypothetical candidate, rather than Biden.
No convincing candidate has yet quoted a third-party bid, but the calculation is simple, no matter who runs it: A third-party bid hurts every major party that runs too high. Trump's actual policies may have been far more established and successful than voters had imagined in 2016, but his rhetoric and Twitter considerations have portrayed his presidency as extremely biased and polarizing.
A contrast to Biden would highlight Trump's mistake. The other democratic leaders would stand out mainly from their political extremism of Trump.
It is reasonable to ask a small business owner in the suburbs of Orlando to trade new tax cuts for a return to an Obama-era policy with a friendly and well-known crowd in the White House. It is a very different question to tell them to trade Trump's Twitter meltdown for the abolition of the private health insurance market and wealth taxes or inheritance taxes to finance the free college. Trump is so detested by the Democrats that every candidate will get the vote of the left, but if the candidate is too extreme, that crucial Never-Trump vote goes to a third-party candidate.
It is unlikely that a candidate with already sky-high popularity, such as Michael Bloomberg or Michelle Obama, or a candidate with a well-defined constituency like Justin Amash, will be in for a third party bid. The ephemeral "libertarian moment" of 2016 was a failure, and it is unclear who is ready to wade into the water until the decision on the Democratic primary. In any case, Democrats should remember that a third-party challenger only jeopardizes their chances if they choose the option that they can not choose.