A war between the US and Iran would have a direct impact on global crude oil prices, as the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has already shown. The only question is how high the crude oil could go.
In early June, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's advisor warned that oil prices for the US and its allies would rise to levels that are "unbearable" and are likely to hit $ 100 a barrel if and when "First Bullet" is fired in the Gulf.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent finished weekly green trading after Tehran shot down a US surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil supplies. The largest gains were recorded immediately after the incident on Thursday, as WTI rose more than 4 percent and Brent grew more than 3 percent. These prices were the highest prices since the end of May. WTI was trading at $ 57.43 a barrel and Brent was trading at $ 64.45 as trading closed on Friday.
The beginning of a war between the US and Iran could lead to a supply disruption According to analysts, the oil markets will continue to rise.
"Markets are sure to be very optimistic, especially when the Strait of Hormuz is closed. We could easily see that the oil price exceeds $ 100 a barrel. " Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, said:
While an open conflict is unlikely to break out, oil prices may rise more than $ 100, according to Jeffrey Tucker of the American Institute for Economic Research. However, it could take months to reach these levels, the analyst added.
"We could see a real increase in oil prices when a real war erupts", he said, pointing out that ] "Nobody is ready for a disruption of the supply chain" and would avoid an open confrontation.
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The uptrend will depend heavily on the duration of the supply disruption in the Middle East, Lipow believes. "I would expect it to take a few weeks or a month or two for the hostilities to subside and the strait reopen and be safe for transit by ships," Lipow told RT.
In the meantime, Tucker says The temporary surge will continue for up to half a year as markets finally stabilize.
Higher oil prices would certainly be beneficial for oil producers outside the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, the chain disruption could hamper oil sales in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, as they depend on supply over these waterways, Lipow told RT.
] "I do not think this conflict is good for anyone, but I suppose there is a chance that US producers believe it is in their interests," analyst Tucker said. He added that currently no one is ready for such disruptions in the oil supply chain and this may be one of the reasons why the US withdrew from Iran.
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