It happened. It actually happened. The bizarre silence over Khalil Mack's contract ended, and the rumors that the Oakland Raiders would drive out their star-pass rushers came true on Saturday morning when Oakland exchanged them for a package of two first-round passes against the Chicago Bears. Mack goes to the Bears along with a 2020 second round pick and a conditional 2020 fifth round pick, while the Raiders pick 2019 first round, 2019 sixth round pick, 2020 first round and 2020 third round pick
It's an absolutely breathtaking Trade. Even in a league where trades are becoming more popular and stars like Marcus Peters are being treated in the midst of their rookie contracts, Mack is the most accomplished player in the prime of his career since the Broncos acquired Champ Bailey in 2004
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This is a huge bet from both sides. The bears are sure to give Mack a blank check, while the trade suggests that the Raiders' checkbook is under wraps. So many questions came to my mind as I tried to figure out this exchange. Let's go through them and see what we can find out about the biggest trade in recent league history.
Is this a logical trade for the bears?
It depends. The 2017 bears did not cry out with a desperate need for a pass rusher. In defensive DVOA, which was carried by the league's sixth-highest sacking rate, Chicago finished 14th. That could be put on the list in the absence of a well-known pass rusher like Mack, but Akiem Hicks & Co. was fourth in the league if they did not flash. Hick's 8.5 bags made him the only player on the team to beat 4.5 sacks, but the Bears managed to reach the quarterback as a whole well.
There are good reasons to believe that the bears in this category may have declined in 2018 without adding a player. Apart from expensive reserves like Pernell McPhee and Lamarr Houston in this offseason, Vic Fangio's defense was unusually effective at turning pressure into sacks. While the Bears were sixth in the sacking rate, they were 19th in the league in pressure rating. When it put pressure on opposing quarterbacks a year ago, Chicago fired these passers-by 25.6 percent of the time, ahead of the league's 21.9 percent.
Teams with a gap between their sack and pressure rates tend to decline the following year. ESPN has only print data dating back to 2009, but from 2009 to 2016, 45 teams ranked 10 or more points higher in the Sack Ranking than their print rankings. (The bears were, of course, 13 points higher.) These teams saw their sack rankings fall an average of just under seven places the following year, suggesting that it would be difficult for the bear to keep its sacking rate high in 2018.
Adding Mack gives the Bears one of the highest floors for every pass rusher in the league. He has scored 10 sacks and 20 knockdowns each in the last three seasons, which accounts for three-quarters of his professional career. There's nothing in his track record that says the production is fibing or likely to go beyond the typical pass-rush failure rate. He is still only 27 and has not missed a game. The last time Fangio had a pass-rushing combination was this estate in San Francisco with Justin Smith and Aldon Smith, who smashed 33.5 sacks from 2011-12.
The fit on the field is just peachy. Mack was very popular in Oakland's locker room. Bruce Irvin does not seem to be very happy about the move . It feels like the Raiders are organizing a Sterling Shepard-style party for Mack, who will get a massive new contract, even though Mack will not be there to attend the celebrations.
Mack will get a massive extension of this agreement. If anything, its representatives can demand more under an agreement than they ask of the Raiders because the bears have less influence to work with. Can you imagine the bears negotiating two first-round picks for Mack just to get him compensated in free agency for the maximum return of a third round? Of course not. You must imagine that the bears were in contact with Mack's representation during these trade negotiations, but during these first discussions and in the ensuing talks, the bears will basically pay what Mack wants. There are no problems. He deserves to be one of the three or four highest-paid defenders of all football.
Adam Schefter reports on the Raiders using DE Khalil Mack for the Chicago Bears.
Is there a "but"?
Yes. The problem is that the combination of the contract and leads to a ridiculous price tag. The goal of any NFL contract from a management perspective is to pay the team one player less than its production value. We acknowledge this by talking about quarterbacks on rookie contracts that were the most important asset in the game, dating back to the beginnings of the new CBA in 2011 and its draft regulation.
Teams rarely trade two net first-rounds tips for rookie quarterbacks who offer the most value added from any player in the league. The advances for Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, for example, included two first-round picks in an exchange to advance for a first-round pick. The last trade for a team in which they lost a net of two first-round picks (excluding the non-first-rounders) was the Robert Griffin Trade in 2012.
If you design a quarterback in the first round and land on a star you create an added value. The Eagles were played in 2017 by Carson Wentz in the MVP caliber before the former second overall anglers ripped his ACL. Top tier quarterbacks were paid about $ 25 million a year last season, but Wentz was at that level, costing the Eagles only $ 6 million. That extra $ 19 million can be added to the list elsewhere, and even after they had exchanged a lot of money for Wentz, the Eagles were able to cash in on these savings for guys like Alshon Jeffery and Tim Jernigan. Even after Wentz went down, General Manager Howie Roseman was strong enough to win the Super Bowl with Nick Foles.
The bears, of course, hope to do the same with Mitchell Trubisky, and Trubisky's four-year $ 29 million contract allows her to spend money on other positions. You probably have a second opinion on this Mack deal when you pay Mike Glennon $ 16 million a season as a starter or go in a different direction, with her quarterback position in the last offseason.
The difference between these rookie quarterback deals and this swap is that the bears do not buy Mack on a beginner contract. You will basically pay him what the market would give him in a veteran business. If he is not Defensive Player of the Year for four consecutive years, the Bears will not gain much in this contract. At best, considering that the forefront of the defensive market is going to grow, they're likely to see between $ 10 and $ 15 million over the next four to five years if everything goes right, and even if Mack continues to play at extremely high levels does not hurt.
Two first-round picks for the right to possibly to pay $ 15 million in added value does not make economic sense. Teams do not value their design capital like that. The uptrend for a quarterback like Wentz, for example, is a completely different economic offer. The Eagles sent less capital to Cleveland than the Bears sent to Mack and came in with a quarterback that exceeded $ 100 million in five years.
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The drawback, of course, was also much smaller; If Wentz failed, the Eagles would have been no more than $ 26.7 million. If Mack gets injured or fights in Chicago, the Bears could pay tens of millions of dollars a year for a player who costs them money. Wentz is the best scenario for this example, but the same logic applies to Mahomes, Trubisky and Watson, all of whom cost much less to purchase in draft capital than Mack and offer the same blend of a higher ceiling and a far less dangerous floor
To be worth two value additions to his market value contract in the first round, Mack, as a well-founded guess, would have to be worth something on the order of $ 15 million more than his actual deal with the Bears Over each of the next five seasons. If he gets Aaron Donald-level money and reaches $ 23 million a year, Mack probably has to play like a $ 38 million a year player to get the economy working in this swap. That is not possible humanly.
To think about opportunity costs, the Bears will miss the chance to grab two players in the first round at market prices over the next few years. Chicago hopes Rookie in linebacker Roquan Smith will become a superstar. Smith was committed to a $ 18.5 million four-year deal after the Bears picked him out with the eighth point total. When Eric Kendricks and Benardrick McKinney extended this off-season, the first four years of their deals came up with an average of just over $ 40 million in new money. The bears give up the opportunity to make bargains with these two first-round picks and otherwise have to find players to fill the positions that would occupy these first-rounders.
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The bears pay a huge premium to sign a player they would not otherwise have access to. General Manager Ryan Pace's designs have produced some useful players, but his first-round selections included Kevin White, Leonard Floyd and Trubisky before adding this off-season to Smith. It's still too small for a sample size, but White was not worth it because of injuries, and Floyd has not met expectations due to injury. Pace landed a hit with Hicks, but his free agent additions were mostly missed, including a terribly bad class last season.
The Bears pay two first-round picks and lose a ton of added value because Mack is too good to misunderstand. Is it an efficient use of assets? Absolutely not. They value Mack as more valuable than Aaron Rodgers over the next five years, and that's simply not the case. Is the best thing these bears could have done with $ 23 million or so a year in cash and two first-round picks? Quite likely.
Do teams who trade two first-round pucks for experienced players lovingly return to their decision?
Ask a bear fan. The last time a team sent two first-round picks in exchange for a veteran was in 2009, when Chicago chose two first-round picks, a third rounder, and Kyle Orton sent to the Broncos for Jay Cutler and a fifth round. Cutler came with the Broncos from a Pro Bowl season and was three weeks away from his 26th birthday; it was a rare opportunity to acquire a Pro Bowler in the prime of his career in a position of great necessity and importance.
Cutler threw 26 interceptions the following season and never made the Pro Bowl again. The often-frustrating Cutler certainly had his moments and often took more flak than he deserved, but it's fair to say that Cutler never lived up to the player the bears believed he was. The Broncos were able to place the picks in a bevy of selections, two of which became future launch wide receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas.
The same goes for many of the veterans with this high price tag. ESPN Stats & Information has found nine other cases in which a player has been changing hands for two first-round hands since 1986. A list with no limited free agents like Sean Gilbert and Wilber Marshall who have cost their new teams two first-round picks. I've gone through these trades and figured out how long each of the stars in their new city lasted, as well as the possible return for those players. In many cases, the teams wrote a more effective player than the one they handed out:
|Player||Year||From||After|| Seasons as
a starter w /
| Best Players
|Jay Cutler||2009||DEN  CHI||8||0|| Demaryius Thomas,
|Ricky Williams||2002||NO||MIA||2||1||Charles Grant  Keyshawn Johnson||2000||NYJ||TB||4||1||John Abraham|
|Joey Galloway||2000||SEA||DAL||19659048 ]||0||Shaun Alexander|
|Jeff George||1994||IND||ATL||3||0||Marvin Harrison|
|He rschel Walker *  1989||DAL||MIN||2.5||0|| E Mmitt Smith,
|Fredd Young||1987||SEA  IND||3||0||Cortez Kennedy ^|
|Eric Dickerson||1987  LAR||IND||4.5||2.5||Fred Strickland|
|Jim Everett||1986||HOU||LAR||8||1||Haywood Jeffires||19659110] * Walker tasted three first-round exchanges|
| ^ The Seahawks used one of the first-round picks in one Package with
their own first-round pick to ascend and grab Kennedy
I would argue that after Walker Mack alongside Dickerson as the most accomplished players in this group would have acted at the time of trading. It is also noteworthy that none of these businesses made the acquiring team a superstar for years to come; The narrowest example is Dickerson, who had a great first year and a half and a half years with the Colts before relegation and finally forced his way out of Indianapolis. The two young quarterbacks, Cutler and Everett, were the only ones to last more than five years with their new team.
That should be enough to arouse a little skepticism that the bear's movement is a stroke of genius, but it is important to note that many of these trades took place in an era in which the league, frankly, is much more stupid the value of draft picks was. (This applies to all American sports.) Looking at recent trades, Mack is clearly a better player than Galloway, Johnson and Williams at the time of their trades. He's better than Cutler, though Cutler plays in a more valuable position.
Do the teams really young superstars act like this very often? It works?
No, that does not happen very often. During his first four seasons, Mack made three Pro Bowls and was twice All-Pro's first team. Awards are not perfect measures of player quality, but there are no bad players who have made that achievement. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, 53 players have made it to at least three Pro Bowls and were in the first four years of their career twice all-pro the first team. Thirty-eight of them are eligible for the Hall of Fame, and 25 are actually anchored in Canton.
Teams often do not let these players go. Many of them spent either their entire career or most of their careers with a team. Some others, including recent examples such as Darrelle Revis and Richard Seymour, were treated in the midst of their second contract with their original franchises. These do not really compare to the Raiders who trade Mack before the end of his rookie contract.
I can only find four examples of players with a similar pedigree to Mack who were treated so early in their careers. One is Dickerson, who was dislocated in the middle of his fifth season during a contract dispute. Two of the others were Chargers Wideout John Jefferson and Eagles tight end Keith Jackson. Jefferson made another Pro Bowl and was out of football until the 30th. Jackson made two Pro Bowls and retired after his 31st season.
The third was Jerome Bettis, who moved to Pittsburgh with the Rams after just three seasons, was an all-pro first-team player in his first season at the Steelers and played with Pittsburgh for a decade. Mack is more in line with the first group than Bettis, but you have the idea: This is something akin to a decade, and no team has thrown a player so early in his career in more than 20 years.
So why are the Raiders trading a franchise pass rusher?
That's a tough question, and it's easier to disqualify bad arguments than find the right one. In the beginning, the idea that the Raiders did not have the money to sign Mack seems absolutely bizarre. The Raiders have known for three years that a Mack deal is due this summer, and they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars en route, including  $ 55 million for contracts that were only off season . It would have taken about 10 minutes to increase the cash flow to sign Mack if owner Mark Davis could not balance his checkbook. This should be a non-starter.
It also seems unlikely that Reggie McKenzie does this. The Oakland manager liked Mack enough to be nominated for fifth overall in 2015 and was looking forward to limiting him to an extension last November. McKenzie told the fans that they should not panic on August 1st.
We've heard many reports that coach Jon Gruden is the one who makes staffing decisions in Oakland, which is reinforced by the Raiders' options in this offseason in adding veteran veteran to free agency , (McKenzie did this early in his tenure with Oakland, but that was out of mere reality that players in their prime did not want to play for the Raiders at the start of their recovery.) Several reports suggested that McKenzie didn I want Mack and do not mandate that Gruden direct the organization . Given that Gruden has a 10-year $ 100 million contract and McKenzie has extended half of his term for four years, we should not be surprised.
When I wrote about Gruden's track record in January, I found out that there was a big gap between coach Gruden and staff evaluator Gruden. The former ESPN commentator de facto took control of the staff in Tampa Bay after the 2003 season and was a relatively poor writer. It would be difficult to argue that the roster he had left after the 2008 season was better than the one he received either as a coach in 2002 or a hiring manager in 2004.
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If we focus specifically on the defensive line, Gruden really did not pay much attention to putting his time to shopping for the food. Cap constraints led Gruden to dismiss Warren Sapp after the 2003 season, and while edge-ringer Edge Rice did not let his nerves down, the Bucs lost $ 7.3 million to him after settling in the Season 2006 had a shoulder injury. Rice later called Gruden a "scumbag" for letting him lie about his future in the team.
The Bucs came out on the defensive with players like Greg Spiers, Dewayne White and 34-year-old free agent Kevin Carter. Gruden signed Chris Hovan to a one-year contract and then signed him to a five-year, $ 17.5 million contract after being impressed with the interior design, but he also swaps former first-round picker Booger McFarland midway through his contract extension , Gruden's most notable investment on the defensive was Gaines Adams, whom the Bucs took fourth overall in the 2007 draft. Adams was traded after Gruden left the city and played a season with the Bears before he died of heart disease.
Gruden is reported to have been better able to take advantage of the $ 20 million the Raiders have spent on Mack across multiple players, and his track record with the Buccaneers indicates that the Raiders are taking things in similar approach. Andrew Hawkins also tweeted an interesting quote from former quarterback Jeff Garcia about his old boss:
In the words of Jeff Garcia: "Jon Gruden likes to meet players, not to marry"
Never embark on great talent (esp QBs) Because big contracts admit that they are good.
Admitting that they are good means he loses the excuse "we need the right man" when the team starts to lose
– Andrew Hawkins (@Hawk) September 1, 2018  Grudens reasoning could well be that the Raiders with Mack in the lineup were not very good in defense. Oakland's defense ranked 26th in the DVOA during Mack's rookie season and moved up to 15th in his 2015 season, but in the last two seasons the Raiders dropped to 22nd and then 29th. McKenzie's defensive plan simply did not work out: Oakland has not had much of Gareon Conley (who was injured for most of his rookie season) and Karl Joseph. Second-rounder Mario Edwards did not develop after missing out on most of his 2016 season, and second graders Jihad Ward and Obi Melifonwu were even less impressive. Ward was distributed to the cowboys this offseason while Melifonwu was cut before returning to the Raiders.
At the same time, however, when you realize that the defense is bad and Mack is acting like a pile of holes is the roof of your house and react by tearing the foundation. The Oakland defense will not get any better if it's Mack, and while they like rookie third grader Arden Key, there's no obvious substitute for Mack on the list. If the Raiders play their cards properly, they could turn the two First-Rounders and $ 22 million they've saved for Mack into four useful NFL starters. Of course, with their recent past in the defense and Grudal's leadership as Tampa hiring managers, they do not seem to be big card players.
What does that tell us about the Bears and Raiders (and the rest of the league)? )
From the bear's point of view, they are basically all-in with this core of players for the foreseeable future. Chicago should have $ 45 million in Cap Roster Hall next season, but much of it is likely to go towards the Mack expansion. The Bears will also lose their next two first-round tips so they will miss important assets that could have helped them shape their squad around this core.
In particular Brian Burke noted on Twitter the Bears have no first choice to either design a quarterback or trade for one if Trubisky does not develop. It's obviously too early to judge Trubisky, having started just 12 games in a very limited game last season, but it's not as well that he played as well as Dak Prescott did during his rookie campaign , We still have no idea if Trubisky will be a successful NFL quarterback. Pace's long-term job security was probably already all-in when Trubisky became a useful passer-by. Now there is no question.
The Bears were already one of the most likely teams in the league to improve this season. Of course, trading for Mack does not hurt these opportunities. After the news arrived Saturday morning, Chicago went from 100-1 to win the Super Bowl all the way down to 40-1 while their over-under for the season jumped from 6.5 to 7 wins , 5 wins.
As far as Oakland is concerned, trading with Mack seems to be a suggestion that Gruden thinks his lineup is not good enough to win in a wide-open AFC West this season, which should help the Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers. It could be argued that it is advisable for a man with a 10-year contract to think long term, but it's not as if Mack was 34 years old. There was every reason to believe that Mack would be a star to the Raiders in years to come, well beyond the planned move to Vegas in 2020.
Again, there will be a deterrent effect. Fans and media outlets often underestimate the importance of re-signing players in bad teams – remember that McKenzie was widely criticized after Houston and Jared Veldheer left in the spring of 2014 and regret not one step – but Mack is not the typical one Player. Will the Raiders pay Amari Cooper as he nears the end of his rookie deal? If you're a free agent who wants to sign up to the Raiders in a few years and see players like Conley and Key break out, will you believe that Gruden will pay the value of those people to the market? Wären Sie bereit, den Sprung zu wagen und es herauszufinden? Selbst wenn die Raiders Recht haben, diesen Handel zu machen, nehmen sie eine Menge Wärme auf, um überhaupt an erster Stelle zu stehen.
Wie steigen Quartergehälter schneller als die Gehaltsobergrenze werden wir mehr Situationen sehen, wie die, die die Raiders mit Mack und Derek Carr unter Vertrag hatten. Es hätte etwa 48 Millionen Dollar pro Jahr gekostet, diese beiden Leute in der Stadt zu behalten, oder fast 27 Prozent der Gehaltsobergrenze. Ich werde dir nicht Vorwürfe machen, dass die Raiders die Kugel gebissen haben und woanders Kürzungen vorgenommen haben, aber es ist klar, dass es Gruden nicht angenehm war.
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Viele der besten kompensierten Pass-Rushers der Liga sind bei Teams, die entweder einen Quarterback auf einen Rookie-Vertrag oder einen ansonsten unterbewerteten Deal haben. Aaron Donald ist mit Jared Goff. Chandler Jones ist mit Josh Rosen, obwohl Sam Bradford einen großen kurzfristigen Deal hat. DeMarcus Lawrence ist mit Prescott. Fletcher Cox hat Wentz. Von Miller, Calais Campbell und Geno Atkins arbeiten in Case Keenum, Blake Bortles und Andy Dalton jeweils mit drei der besser bezahlten Quarterbacks zusammen.
Die Wikinger sind eine offensichtliche Ausnahme mit Everson Griffen und Kirk Cousins und den Saints Cameron Jordan hat sich mit Drew Brees an das Top-Level-Geld gewöhnt. Die Wikinger sind in den letzten fünf Spielzeiten wohl auch die beste Mannschaft in der Liga, die sich aufziehen und weiterentwickeln konnte, und die Saints hatten große Löcher in ihrer Verteidigung, bevor sie den Entwurf für 2017 in Angriff nahmen. Teams können einen Star-Quarterback und einen Star-Edge-Rusher haben, der riesige Geldsummen verdient und gut abschneidet, aber es ist nicht genug, um zu gewinnen.
Schließlich beleuchtet dieser Deal weiterhin den Wert von Rookie-Quarterbacks. Die Bären sind sich nicht einmal sicher (oder sollten es nicht sicher sein), wenn sie in Trubisky einen guten haben, und sie hätten sich entscheiden können, ihren Platz in die Zukunft zu rollen, aber das tatsächliche Geld, das sie an der Position sparen und die bloße Möglichkeit, auf Quarterback gesetzt zu werden, erlaubte ihnen, bei einem bekannten Franchise-Spieler in der Blüte seiner Karriere einen großen Schlag zu machen. Selbst wenn Sie denken, dass sie eine enorme Prämie gezahlt haben, um Mack zu erwerben, tauschten die Bären gegen einen 27-jährigen Spieler in einer kritischen Position, der heute auf einer Hall of Fame-Karriere zu sein scheint. Wenn du jemals zu viel bezahlen willst, ist das die Art von Spieler, die du maximal aus deinem Bankkonto herausholen kannst.
Für die Raiders haben sie unterdessen ein riesiges Loch in ihrem Herzen und eine Menge Unsicherheit. Oakland hätte seine Entscheidung, Mack mit dem, was beim Quarterback passierte, nicht zu treffen, aber Carr nahm in der letzten Saison überraschend einen Schritt zurück und sieht plötzlich aus, als ob er eine Haftung von $ 25 Millionen pro Saison darstellen könnte
Fehler ist viel bequemer, wenn der Starting Quarterback $ 1,3 Millionen pro Saison macht, wie Carr vor seiner Erweiterung war. Werden die Teams aggressiver werden, wenn sie aus Deals für Mid-Tier-Quarterbacks aussteigen und ihren Cap-Platz anderweitig nutzen, während sie ihre Entwurfspicks für billige Passanten im Entwurf verwenden, wie es die Rams and Eagles vor zwei Jahren getan haben? Hätte das Mack in Oakland auf Kosten seines früheren Quarterbacks behalten? Wir werden es nie erfahren, aber da Carr kein garantiertes Geld nach der Saison hat und Gruden die Aufstellung nach seinem eigenen Image wieder aufgebaut hat, ist es unklar, ob der Kern der Raiders, der 2016 die AFC West gewonnen hat, dieses Mal als nächstes in der Liga verstreut sein wird Jahr.