LONDON (Reuters) – After losing the most controversial referendum in British history, James McGrory went for a drink at The Hope near the medieval meat market in London. Amidst butchers in bloody coats, his dream of reversing Brexit seemed hopeless.
A British Union flag and a European Union flag will be overflown by offices on 30 March 201
Two years later, the country is in crisis, whether or not it's left behind In the European Union, McGrory feels more confident that his campaign can help to reach another referendum he hopes to win that it could topple the 2016 result.
The idea of a second referendum was supported by some senior British politicians and seems to resonate with parts of public opinion, but the political situation is so uncertain that it's hard to say if this will actually lead to another vote and when and how this could be done or what question could be asked.
"We have rejected, rejected, and laughed at a foreign point of view and are now at the center of the Brexit debate," said McGrory, the 36-year campaigning leader of the People's Vote campaign an interview.
"The odds are diminishing with each passing day that we have another referendum. The moment is in our campaign. "
Betting odds show that an EU referendum of 43 percent is likely before 2020. Players believe Britain will not exit as planned with a 55 percent chance on March 29.
Surveys show that voters have shifted slightly towards EU whereabouts, but the public remains largely divided in the middle.
It remains unclear how exactly a second vote can be called, although some Members of Parliament have drafted a detailed roadmap outlining possible legislative paths for another referendum.
In the meantime, campaigners are fighting for further lobbying with parliament and trying to increase public support with rallies and in social and mainstream media. They note that Prime Minister Theresa May has picked up her desired outcome as one of three options for the country: her deal, no deal, or the Brexit reversal.
US. The investment bank J.P. Morgan said the chances of Britain losing Brexit had increased after a series of parliamentary defeats in May, casting doubt on their plan to leave the bloc.
VOTE VICE VERSA?
If Brexit were turned upside down, this would be one of the most extraordinary twists in modern British history, probably alienating the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the EU.
The road to a new referendum is crisis-prone.
May's Brexit deal must first be rejected in Parliament on December 11th. Second, their government must endure an attempt by the opposition Labor Party to overthrow it and then demand a national election.
With the time running out to March 29 and the financial markets pricing in for a potentially disorderly exit, McGrory and his activists hope that British politicians will accept that they will reach a dead end and throw the question back to the voters ,
David Lammy, a Labor Party legislator, said that after the parliament failed to reach consensus, it will reluctantly agree to consider another referendum as the best of a limited number of escape routes to avoid a potentially chaotic outcome.
"We're probably going around in circles, and if politics gets stuck and can not compromise, then the only way to get out of it is to return to the people," Lammy told Reuters.
Lammy said the situation may resemble Charles Dickens & # 39; Roman Bleak House, which is about a testament settlement that has been on trial for so long that few participants can remember the original arguments.
A new referendum can only be called if approved by parliament. This could be put forward either by the government or by rebels.
The hurdles for another referendum are high.
Both major political parties have committed to leave the EU following the 2016 referendum.
The Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who voted in 1975 in a referendum against membership of the European Community, said he was not interested in another referendum.
His party has said that they will only vote for another referendum if the agreement is rejected and they do not force universal suffrage.
Some union leaders have rejected another referendum because they believe millions of Brexit supporters in Labor's polling stations are considered treason.
Brexit supporters say that the 2016 vote must be respected. "It is absolutely dangerous for us to turn to the people now and say, 'They have abandoned us. They got it wrong, "said Nigel Evans, a Conservative MP.
Even if Parliament had in principle agreed to a second referendum, Britain would have to request an extension of the EU withdrawal schedule to allow enough time for a campaign, probably by withdrawing the exit notice under Article 50.
Am On Tuesday, just hours before a five-day parliamentary debate on the May agreement, an adviser to the European Court of Justice said Britain could cancel its formal divorce decree. The court is scheduled to rule on 10 December.
Even if sentiment changes, there is controversy over what the question would be and whether another referendum would lead to a different outcome.
Following the failure of the 2016 campaign, pro-Europeans turned on each other and pretended to the Brexit campaign what they saw as the chicane of their opponents.
But in the aftermath of their defeat, a small group of influential politicians, journalists, and activists began working out a plan to retain Britain in the club it joined in 1973.
They had to struggle with inedible truths.
Her 2016 campaign was marked by rivalries damaged by her association with then-Prime Minister David Cameron, below average in the social media, and used by opponents as the voice of the establishment for the status quo.
EU activists have been more optimistic in recent months. In October, the referendum organized a march of nearly 700,000 people through London, calling for another vote.
"The tables have turned," said McGrory. "We are the outsider. We are the inglorious campaign that does something different.
Last month, two ministers resigned and demanded another referendum.
Three of the four former British Prime Ministers – John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – have also stated that a second referendum is the solution to the crisis.
The mood at People's Headquarters # 39; s vote in the Millbank Tower near the Parliament is bullish.
Young people investigate maps of target audiences and organize a publicity campaign to convince parliamentarians to block the government's deal.
"If anyone considers Brexit a closed deal, he should be ready for another surprise," McGrory said.
Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Additional reporting by William James; Edited by Guy Faulconbridge and Giles Elgood