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Home / Business / At G20, the oil queens try to fix a new fiasco – Axios

At G20, the oil queens try to fix a new fiasco – Axios



Once again, energy experts misunderstood the oil market: less than two months ago, Brent's crude oil price was around $ 86 a barrel, and there was talk of a return to ultra-sustainable oil of $ 100. Today, Brent closed at $ 58.68, down 31% from its peak after the industry's worst two months in a decade.

The Biggest Kingpins of Oil are now at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, where they will try to set things right. But if they are unable – due to reasons such as President Trump's pressure and their own division – to seek a new bloodbath in oil, threatening the world states and many other industries.

What's going on : For oil and gas, the last decade has been a downright illusory series of bad calls – starting in 2008 with oil prices rising to $ 147 a barrel and a consensus that the era of low prices was due to a shortage was past fossil fuels. [19659004] Instead, shale oil and gas advanced, and in 2014, the US was suddenly flooded.

  • This was presented as incredibly good news for the US, a platform for the US to enter an industrial renaissance.
  • Instead (another bad call), prices went into endless rotation, eventually plummeting below $ 27 a barrel. The slaughter included dozens of oil company bankruptcies, a mini recession for several industries and hundreds of thousands of job losses.
  • "Analysts always tend to extrapolate current trends and miss turning points." John Kemp, senior energy analyst at Reuters, told Axios

    In the final chapter of this poor forecast, analysts and traders saw oil prices tumble above $ 80 a barrel in the last week of September the new normal. Besides, as traders crowed at a major industry conference in Singapore this month, the $ 100 a barrel barrel of oil would soon be back, crossing a threshold that would never have replaced anyone else during the harsh stain.

    We've Got an 8-Week Price Crash:

    • In a report today, the US Energy Information Agency said US oil drills reached a record volume of nearly 11.4 million barrels a day for the fourth month in a row. nearly 2 million higher than a year earlier.
    • The accesses in August and September are the largest in almost a century.
    • Amazing Fact : First in the US since 1948 Net oil imports will drop to zero next year before stabilizing at 320,000 barrels a day, analysts say.

    As usual, analysts cite a dozen reasons why they could not have remained blind, even though the oil game is so all about avoiding being blind. [19659002] What They Have Missed:

    • That Trump would grant a series of sanctions in 19459006 to give up buyers of Iranian oil instead of immediately forcing a large portion of the market off the market, Amy Jaffe said Council on External Relations. Also, the Saudi, which itself expects Iran to export relatively little, would produce a record of 11.1 million barrels of oil per day.
    • That slate-borers would continue their deluge – another 5 million barrels of oil, including this and next year.
    • That the world economy would slow down: Barclays has a 20% to 25% chance of a US recession by the end of next year and 25 According to Michael Cohen, head of research for energy markets, it is said 40 % to 40%.

    What's next : OPEC will meet next week in Vienna to discuss a production excerpt. But the real game takes place in Buenos Aires, where the most powerful men in the oil – Vladimir Putin (Russia), the Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohammad bin Salman and – due to the strength of his tweets – Trump – sat at the G20 summit

    saud for one needs 73-dollar barrel oil to finance the state budget, according to the IMF. Putin, with a break-even of $ 40, will be cut as he seeks Russia in Saudi Arabia, said Scott Modell, head of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy.

    • At today's meeting, an OPEC Advisory Committee proposed a reduction of 1.3 million barrels per day. This is exactly the 2019 oil surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency, but it could be more – in a recent announcement to customers, such as RBC's Helima Croft, they forecast a surplus of 1.4 million barrels a day next year No cuts.

    The worst in a sustained low-price era said model: Venezuela and Nigeria.


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