Both Marvel films have very good reviews and a rabid fanbase, but only one will be king of the local box office.
Will "Avengers: Infinity War" reach the level of "Black Panther" in North America? Three months ago this question would be a sacrilege. But on his tenth weekend, "Black Panther" is still in the top 10, where it probably stays for at least another weekend; it should reach about $ 700 million gross worldwide, $ 1,360 billion worldwide.
Almost certainly, "Avengers" will earn "Black Panther" the best worldwide. "Black Panther" made over $ 650 million overseas, but the recent top Marvel releases, including "Avengers: Age of Ultron," saw about 65/35 foreign shares, nearly a billion dollars abroad.
Weekend estimates for "Avengers: Infinity War" are about $ 200 million, give or take $ 20 million; "Black Panther" opened on the holiday weekend of the President's Day $ 241.9. Here are the cases for "Black Panther" and for "Avengers: Infinity War;" as always all the cash register figures adjusted.
Matt Kennedy  WHY "BLACK PANTHER" BROUGHT MORE
- "Black Panther" was an independent social phenomenon characterized by strong reviews and original elements who stand out this year with limited blockbuster competition. It's hard to see what factors another "Avengers" title has, almost doubling its appeal.
- At $ 700 million it will be effective with the first "Avengers" (2012) as the largest Marvel (or indeed, comic universe) movie in adjusting for ticket prices in 2018. It's a huge number, in indeed the biggest one except "Star Wars: The Awakening of Power" in 2012.
- Just once before – in 2015 with "Force Awaken" and "Jurassic World" – have released two films in the same year reached this sum , Two in the first half of a year would be unprecedented.
- As with other genres, the longer it has been since the last hit, the bigger the boost for the next one. It's been 72 days since "Panther" was released – the shortest gap between the big Marvel movies.
- The first "Avengers" grossed 705 million dollars; the second 491 million dollars. Historically, when a third Marvel entry surpasses its predecessors, it hits titles that range from $ 200 to $ 400 million. Reaching $ 500 million for the third installment would be great (it's great for any movie). It would be historic to reach $ 700 million.
- We have a precedent for an ensemble title that followed a big comic success. "Wonder Woman" late last summer surprised the industry as a female superhero movie with over $ 400 million. "Justice League" followed five months later with all the important D.C. Comics characters, including Wonder Woman, and grossed around $ 230 million. The momentum did not continue.
WHY "INFINITE WAR" MORE BRIMS COULD
- "Black Panther" changed everything. Yes, they have been on steroids for years (nine movies costing over $ 400 million so far), but with "Panther" approaching $ 700 million it proved the brand's power is even more important than their fans might have expected. The two "Avengers" titles and "Panthers" are three of the top five Marvel titles ever, and the new "Avengers" title could be prepared for the same success.
- "Panther" also added many viewers who were generally less interested in Marvel films. Unlike some studios, Disney does not publish racial / ethnic demographics, but a 2015 study by Facebook's Marvel Fan Pages showed 11 percent of its members were African American and 19 percent were Latino. According to studies outside of Disney, "Black Panther" showed 35% African American and 17% Latino. "Panther" clearly shows that Marvel's appeal is universal, but this title (not unexpectedly) made for black cinemagoers (who are usually 14 percent of ticket buyers). In addition to the Black Panther, "Infinity" includes most Marvel characters (Sony's Spider-Man, but not Fox X-Men or Deadpool). Is the debt interest worth $ 100 million to $ 200 million for Infinity? It will be necessary to achieve parity.
- "Avengers: Infinity War" launches the "Summer" movie season on the last weekend of April – a weekend before Marvel's May date since "Spider-Man 3" in 2007 This extra week of breathing is one great strategy. The mid-February release of "Black Panther" had the luxury of limited competition (it played five times as much as any other 2018 release, an incredible dominance). It will be May soon, and big movies will open, but in its first three weeks of "Avengers," only Melissa McCarthy's "Life of the Party" stands as a true breakout hit. (Marvel's own "Deadpool 2" and Disney's own "Solo: A Star Wars Story" arrive on May 18 and May 24, taking some wind out of their sails.)
- With a $ 200 million opening weekend and $ 250 million or more in the first week, "Avengers" could reach $ 500 million after three weeks, just as summer begins to kick off. A great first answer means it could go much higher.
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