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B / R Expert Consensus NFL Picks for Week 11 | Bleacher Report

1 of 14

    Keith Srakocic / Associated Press

    The Cleveland Browns are desperate to return to winning after defeating the Buffalo Bills in week 10. The team is aggressively challenged in Week 11 take a short break. So it's not surprising that Cleveland scored a field goal against the grazing Pittsburgh Steelers 3-6.

    But none of our experts is ready to return the Browns minus three points.

    "The Steelers may not earn style points," Davenport said. "But the team is collecting the victories and the way Pittsburgh is doing this is causing trouble for the Browns, Pittsburgh's rebound was vicious, and Minkah Fitzpatrick is looking for mistakes committed by opposing callers." It happens that the Browns specialize in bad O-Line play and Quarterback mistakes. However, it is not Baker Mayfield's fault. His fans cheer too loud.


    But Davenport have a point to this special matchup, the Browns are remarkably error prone, the third most punished team in the league, and only four teams have made more sales Pittsburgh's soaring defender has scored a ridiculous 24 goals in their last seven games.

    The Browns have not won two games this season, and there are important questions about the skills of rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens, which may not be a good sign Chance to win twice within five days, the second win against a more accomplished team that has not lost regulation since September and has at least one seasoned head coach at the helm.

    This may be a close game, but more reliable and more consistent team driving a four-game winning streak receives three points, which seems to Pittsburgh to sic to make her choice for Thursday Night Football .

    Davenport: Pittsburgh (+3)
    Gagnon: Pittsburgh (+3)
    Sobleski: Pittsburgh (+3)
    Consensus: Pittsburgh (+3)

    Earnings Prediction: Steelers 20, Browns 17

2 of 14

    Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press

    The Atlanta Hawks have suddenly discussed the point in back-to-back games, which is particularly notable given that they have not previously discussed 16 of their 21 regular seasonal affairs. But the majority of our analysts assume that they now have too much love for a winning team on the road and are prepared to score 5.5 points with the Carolina Panthers.

    "Yes, the Hawks have just blown up the saints in New Orleans while the Panthers lost in Green Bay," Davenport said. "But the Hawks are still 2-7, while Carolina was against one of the best NFC teams in the game, still sitting at 5-4 and staying in the playoffs on the hunt, Atlanta trotting a third-team jam and ready for a disappointment, while the Panthers have taken five out of seven wins since losing last week and have played well at Bank of America Stadium in the past. "

    The Falcons will indeed manage without Devonta Freeman with a foot injury , and this is particularly problematic when tempo change back, Ito Smith already on the injured reserve. This could make it difficult to use Run Defense, which ranks last in terms of DVOA (defense adjusted value above average) at Football Outsiders, especially on the road.

    Back big street games is likely to be low (especially with the outbreak narrow end Austin Hooper also from ), and the Panthers have won 12 of their last 17 games in Charlotte.

    Matt Ryan is still Matt Ryan, and the Panthers lack consistency in the passing game. Sobleski can not be blamed for not commenting on this, and it's worth mentioning that there are 47-40-1 against the majority this season.

    There are several lines this week that are more tempting than these.

    Davenport: Carolina (-5,5)
    Gagnon: Carolina (-5,5)
    Sobleski: Atlanta (+5,5) [19659047] Consensus: Carolina (-5.5)

    Predictive Results: Panthers 30, Falcons 24

3 of 14

    Stephen B. Morton / Associated Press

    At the time of printing Caesars had not posted a line for Sunday's matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts. But the game opened in Indianapolis at 3.5, and in some books a live line hovers around that number.

    If you investigate, you'll be able to find the Jaguars and a field goal, and all three of our analysts will be out of action to stay behind, regardless of who starts quartering for the Colts ,

    It could be Jacoby Brissett, but it would be Brian Hoyer if Brissett was forced to miss a second game in a row due to a knee injury. The backup was a disaster last week when the Miami Dolphins lost, and it's fair to worry about the already conservative Brissett when he's less than 100 percent, especially with the top receiver TY Hilton hurt too.

    "Quarterback matchups often define competitions," said Sobleski. "The Sunday meeting between the Jaguars and Colts will focus on the game's most important position for two reasons: Nick Foles returns as a Jags starter after fracturing his collarbone in Week 1 while keeping Brissett's status in the air It is clear that the Jaguars have an advantage as to whether a limping Brissett or Hoyer will take off for Indianapolis. "

    The Jaguars are becoming healthier on both sides of the ball, having two weeks to prepare after having played two out of three games had won their reunion in week 10. In the meantime, the Colts lost two games after playing with Brissett in the middle over their heads earlier this season.

    The jags in Indy were just a field goal last year in a matchup between Blake Bortles and Andrew Luck. Now they have a former Super Bowl MVP at quarterback, while the Colts have reason to worry about their position.

    If you can, take these three points and run.

    Davenport: Jacksonville (+3)
    Gagnon: Jacksonville (+3)
    Sobleski: Jacksonville (+3)
    Consensus: Jacksonville (+3)

    Earnings Forecast: Jaguars 23, Colts 20

4 of 14

    Darron Cummings / Associated Press

    So much for armored job?

    The Miami Dolphins date back to early October and have already completed five consecutive spreads. By now they have the longest winning streak at AFC East. They had a margin in the fourth quarter before the Buffalo Bills a few weeks ago, and now they're allowed to host Buffalo on Sunday.

    As a result, they receive only six points. This is the second lowest spread in a Dolphins game this season. But with Miami playing hard for rookie head coach Brian Flores and Buffalo, who seem to return to Earth after a 5-1 start, the majority of our gang supports the Phins at this point.

    "The Dolphins have switched from the ultimate NFL punching bag to a team you can not do anything with," Davenport said. "Miami is not good, mind you, talented Dolphins are still the worst team in the league, but with an experienced quarterback who takes everything off the field, and an impressive first-year coach in Brian Flores who boosts the defense, Miami is over the head and has been around for a while – the Dolphins have found a way to make a measure of success out of a complete lack of talent and ability. "

    But Gagnon costs us a unanimous consensus here. He assumes that the weird Miami squad will return to Earth and that the much more talented and hungry Bills can still win by a touchdown, just as they did when they made it in time, the Dolphins with one Double hit to defeat -digit margin in week 7.

    The dolphins may be considered priceless. In that case, you may want to invest your money elsewhere.

    Davenport: Miami (+6)
    Gagnon: Buffalo (-6)
    Sobleski: Miami (+6)
    Consensus: Miami (+6)

    Result Prediction: Bills 20, Dolphins 17

5 of 14

    Hannah Foslien / Getty Images

    The Minnesota Vikings have played four teams this season, who currently have fewer than four wins. In these four games they are 4-0 with an average profit margin of 14 points. They are also home 4-0 with an average victory margin of 16 points.

    We can argue about whether they overcame the hustle and bustle on the road, in primetime, and against high-profile opponents, but the Vikes usually kill it at home against low-quality teams on Sunday afternoons.

    Against this background, our analysts are unanimously ready to work with Minnesota, which released the Denver Broncos on Sunday in the U.S.. Bank Stadium scores 10.5 points, even though Denver scores a victory over the Cleveland Browns and then a reunion.

    "Brandon Allen played well in his first start and he and the Broncos had two weeks to prepare for Minnesota," Sobleski admitted. "However, the Vikings 'defense is far better than that of the Browns, with Minnesota taking fifth place in goalkeeping and playing much more disciplined football – do not expect the Vikings' defenses to allow anyone to work around the edges." They will attack the young quarterback in only his second start. Allen has completed only 12 passes at home to Cleveland and is now facing a talented and opportunistic defense in a hostile environment, making sure he has problems, while a decent but contradictory Denver D is an offense to the third highest passers-by and league leaders likely can not finish.

    Davenport: Minnesota (-10.5)
    Gagnon: Minnesota (-10.5)
    Sobleski: Minnesota (-10.5)
    Consensus: Minnesota (-10.5)

    Result prediction: Vikings 28, Broncos 13

6 of 14

    Ron Jenkins / Associated Press

    This is another game That was missing a live link to Caesars on Wednesday night as we wait for the word from Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, but Stafford's back injury would probably put him back even if he gets dressed. Our experts support the Dallas Cowboys as long as it is a single-score spread.

    For books where lines are posted, the Lions are only interested in one field goal, making it a snap for our trio.

    "Even if Stafford plays, it's unlikely this line will go beyond a touchdown," Gagnon said. "Lock up the cowboys now, if you can, because I doubt he'll be too effective with this Back Issue anyway." The Detroit crime is one-dimensional right now, no matter who's in focus, and Backup Jeff Driskel is not about to kill a talented Dallas defense. "

    The Cowboys have 4: 1 against defeats and 1: 3 against victories this season. The Lions have lost much more than won (they only have one win since September), they are devastated and they are dealing with locker rooms.

    It is not a good place for them, All three experts agree that they will lose on Sunday by a touchdown or more.

    Davenport: Dallas (-3)
    Gagnon: Dallas (-3)
    Sobleski: Dallas (-3)
    Consensus: Dallas (-3)

    Predictive Results: Cowboys 30, Lions 23

7 of 14

    Ed Zurga / Associated Press

    Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are all trendy at the moment, but could a Baltimore team who lacked consistency in the first five weeks of the season come up against a wall?

    The majority of our experts believe that the Houston Texans could at least deliver a speed. Gagnon and Sobleski are unwilling to see Baltimore with four points when Houston leaves the table.

    "The Texans were injured in October, but they still have four of their last five games and they've had two weeks to prepare for this," Gagnon said. "They may not be upset here, but Deshaun Watson continues to fight with his team, and for the first 31 years of regular time, Watson has never lost a game by more than a score."

    Watson is also one of the few quarterbacks in Jackson's neighborhood of late. He scored in the two wins before the week in Houston a pass score of 117.8 and lowered his bag rate significantly. Both quarterbacks should be able to take advantage of vulnerable but opportunistic defenses, but Houston has some more experience with the big game and should be well rested.

    The Texans look as if they would attack Laremy Tunsil and defenders Tashaun Gipson, Lonnie Johnson Jr. and Bradley Roby offensively, while cornerback Johnathan Joseph and offensive tackle Tytus Howard should be farther off than on their return from Injuries before bye week.

    Baltimore is always a difficult place to play, but Houston played the saints hard in New Orleans and beat the chiefs in Kansas City. It should be ready to fight here.

    Davenport: Baltimore (-4)
    Gagnon: Houston (+4)
    Sobleski: Houston (+4)
    Consensus: Houston (+4)

    Prediction: Ravens 24, Texans 23

8 of 14

    Michael Reaves / Getty Images

    The New Orleans Saints are four leagues ahead of Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NFC South, but it was a crazy year for a New Orleans team that only plays 2-2 at quarterback with Drew Brees. As the Bucs receive the saints on Sunday, the majority of our experts are unwilling to give up more than a handful of points with New Orleans.

    But Gagnon's advice is to leave it out altogether.

    "Do not bet on this game," Gagnon said. There's just too much uncertainty – the Atlanta Falcons dominated New Orleans last week, and it's hard to tell if the saints fall apart or if it's a coincidence and this experienced team bounces back aggressively. was a problem, and Brees did not look like a bad defense in Atlanta. Now they are without guard Andrus Peat, and they probably will not have a cornerback Marshon Lattimore either. I do not trust the saint at all, especially against an inferior team that she always plays hard. The Bucs beat the saints at home in 2016 and 2017 and won in New Orleans in 2018. They beat the Cardinals, and before that they almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle. They force me to pick a team here, and you can see why I'm rolling with 5.5 points in my back pocket with Tampa Bay. But we still talk about the unpredictable Jameis Winston. The Bucs have only one victory this year in Tampa, and the saints may be angry. Stay away from this. "

    It is therefore appropriate that we do not reach a unanimous consensus on this issue.

    Davenport: New Orleans (-5,5)
    Gagnon: Tampa Bay (+5.5)
    Sobleski: Tampa Bay (+5.5)
    Consensus: New Orleans (-5.5)

    Result prediction: Saints 30, Buccaneers 20

9 of 14

    Mark Brown / Getty Images

    This is another "Do we?" Game as the New York jets have not yet won on the road while the Washington Redskins Something has to give, and with a semi-pick line, the majority of our analysts are on the side of the team that has won several games this season.

    "Everyone should put on a blindfold and throw an arrow to find out who will win between the Jets and Redskins, as these two teams are so bad, "Sobleski said. Nobody outside the Diehards will be watching this game. But the jets have an advantage, as the defense of Gregg Williams is good. Washington interim coach Bill Callahan wants to establish the run, but the Redskins will bang against a wall as New York allows a league low of 3.0 yards per carry.

    The Jets offense has also made some progress since this Monday night disaster against New England in week 7. Since then, the hit rate has been increasing every week, and the defense has caused quite a stir last week against the New York Giants Strong Run Defense takes away Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice from the equation.

    Even the betting crowd strongly supports the jets, which is not surprising given their victory in the 10th week and the negative press about the Redskins Fading the audience (never a bad strategy) and assume that the jets are not reliable enough to win consecutive victories, especially since the Redskins had two weeks to prepare.

    In any case, consider spending your hard-earned money elsewhere.

    [19659004] Predictions
    Davenport: New York (+1.5)
    Gagnon: Washington (-1.5)
    Sobleski: New York [1 9459015] (+1.5)
    Consensus: New York (+1.5)

    Prediction of results: Jets 20, Redskins 17

10 of 14

    Christian Petersen / Getty Images

    Talk No team that has much money for the public is putting more emphasis on its team this week than the Arizona Cardinals, who lost 11 points in a match against the San Francisco 49ers ,

    That would normally be a red flag, but none of our panelists can bring themselves to score so many points with San Francisco.

    "These divisional rivals only met two weeks ago," Sobleski said. "While the 49ers are clearly the better team, the Cardinals lost three points in the final game, and Arizona admitted they needed 11 unanswered fourth-quarter points to run short, but Kyler Murray and co. Were able to beat San Move Francisco. " The offensive of Niners will not be fully utilized if George Kittle and / or Emmanuel Sanders can not play. Jimmy Garoppolo struggled to move the ball against the Seahawks on Monday without his top two goals.

    It is unlikely that Kittle plays according to ESPN This is notable as the Cardinals' defense is the worst of the NFL in terms of DVOA Sanders, Matt Breida and Joe Staley and the 49ers could be injured, especially after a short break after an emotionally demanding Seahawks crash.

    The charts are much healthier and come from a solid road performance in Tampa, and they have not had a decent team this year but they'll probably hang around here And with this line you also have a potential back door cover in your back pocket.

    Davenport: Arizona (+11)
    Gagnon: Arizona (+11)
    Sobleski: Arizona (+11)
    Consensus: Arizona (+11)

    earnings before hersage: 49ers 28, Cardinals 20

11 of 14

    Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images [19659003] Are you trying to win the Cincinnati Bengals? It's fair to wonder that Andy Dalton is on the bench and newcomer Ryan Finley as A.J. Green and John Ross III are left with injuries on the track.

    Cincinnati was defeated in one-sided duel with 73-23 points. The second defeat scored Finley in the home game with 49-13 points ahead.

    So it's not surprising that the majority of our experts are not prepared to put the Bengals against the mighty Oakland Raiders in the Bay Area with 10.5 points on their side on Sunday.

    "This is admittedly a lot of points for a Raiders team whose defense is still in the works," said Davenport. "But the Bengals defense is a finished product … one that instantly spreads in manners when they hear about it, the difference being that Oakland has a running game and quarterback at Pro Bowl level. " have Joe Mixon's tortured mind (remember when he led the AFC last year?) and Ryan Finley in the middle.

    Nevertheless, the leader of this season spoiled a unanimous consensus.

    "I do not put so many points," Gagnon said. "In 25 games since Jon Gruden's return, the Raiders have only one win with a double-digit lead. They are 5: 4 this season, but they have 3.6 points per game. And while the Bengals are terrible, they are due. This team is not bad enough to lose them all, and it's good enough to hang. The Bengals have been playing street games in Seattle, Buffalo and Baltimore this season, and the back door could be the worst-case scenario there.

    Davenport: Oakland (-10.5)
    Gagnon: Cincinnati (+10.5)
    Sobleski: Oakland (-10.5) [19659033] Consensus: Oakland (-10.5)

    Prediction: Raiders 31, Bengals 17

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    Maddie Meyer / Getty Images [19459066SinceNovember2010theNewEnglandPatriotshavelosteightgamesbymorethan12pointsincludingtheirlasttwoweeksagoagainstBaltimore

    They have followed up ea their recent seven 13-plus-point losses with 13-plus Score Wins Your average profit margin on these rebound wins: 19.0

    And in the past five years, New England has outperformed its opponents by an average of 15.6 points per game, which has strayed from its farewell week.

    On Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field, the Pats have both a 13-point loss st and .

    Against this background, two of our three analysts with the Patriots are on the side as a 3.5-point favorite in Philly.

    "The catch on this track scares me to hell," Gagnon admitted, "but even more frightening than this half-point is the idea of ​​supporting anyone against a team coached by Bill Belichick who has a two-week break I can not bring myself to predict that it will be a field goal, so if I bet here, I could even save up to three points, but the Patriots are still the safer choice under these circumstances.

    The Pats are still very healthy after parting, but the Eagles also had two weeks to prepare, and they have also become much healthier. That and the damned snag might explain why we do not have unanimity here. This is a tricky matchup between two well-trained and very successful teams.

    Davenport: Philadelphia (+3.5)
    Gagnon: New England (-3.5)
    Sobleski: New England (-3.5)
    Consensus : New England (-3.5)

    Prediction Forecast: New England 27, Philadelphia 17

    Tickets for Patriots Vs. Eagles can be found at StubHub . [19659188] Bleacher Report maintains an affiliate marketing relationship with StubHub. We receive income from your purchase.

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    Mitchell Leff / Getty Images

    This does not look like the year of the Chicago Bears, as the crime with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has declined significantly. However, they still have a world-class defense that has dropped just 17.3 points per game in the last three weeks.

    And although they have not been so dramatically downside, Chicago's opponent in Week 11 is also a mess right now.

    Over the last seven weeks, the Los Angeles Rams have only clinched two wins over the 2-7 Falcons and the 0-9 Bengals. As a result, none of our forecasters are ready to touchdown on Sunday night in Los Angeles.

    "Somehow the Rams have a spread of 6.5 points, even though their offense falls apart," Sobleski said. "Yes, the Bears offense is not going well, in fact it was downright awful, but this matchup will lead to Chicago's defense taking advantage of multiple misconducts in the trenches."

    "The Rams' offensive front is in complete disarray. The Center Brian Allen was the last victim with a MCL injury at the end of the season. Properly Attacking Rob Havenstein is week to week with a meniscal injury. And David Andrews did not perform well on the left side in the absence of Joseph Noteboom. Quarterback Jared Goff is crumbling under constant pressure, as we saw on Sunday against the Steelers.

    Remarkably, only four defenders have created as much pressure as Chicago this season, and the error-prone Goff not only has a lower pass rating than Trubisky, but also has the highest NFL bath-throw rate.

    The Rams could win this game with their somewhat limited home advantage at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, but this number is far too high for our boys. [19659004]

    Davenport: Chicago (+6.5) [19459028Gagnon: Chicago (+6.5)
    Sobleski: Chicago (+6.5)
    Consensus: Chicago (+6.5)

    Prediction: Rams 23, Bears 20

    For tickets to Rams vs. Bears, go to StubHub .

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    Peter G. Aiken / Getty Images

    Both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers have suffered heavy losses as they prepare to meet at a neutral location in Los Angeles. City on Monday evening football . Aber während sich die letzte Niederlage von Kansas City gegen Tennessee für Patrick Mahomes und sein zuvor verletzungsbedingtes Team wie ein Schüttelfrost anfühlte, wirkte und fühlte sich LAs Dud einer Leistung in Oakland wie ein Fußball Beerdigung.

    Die Ladegeräte wurden verletzt und können den Quarterback Philip Rivers nicht schützen. Bei 4-6 könnte es sich um einen Toast handeln.

    Zumindest sieht ihr überraschender Sieg in Woche 9 über die Packers jetzt wie ein Zufall aus. Und in diesem Sinne unterstützt unsere dreiköpfige Crew die favorisierten Chiefs trotz eines fiesen Hakens am Montagabend voll und ganz.

    "Nur 3,5 Punkte bei den Chefs zu geben, ist entweder eine Chance für den Wert, nachdem Kansas City letzte Woche gestolpert ist, oder eine weitere Chance für das Universum, mich in dieser Saison zu verprügeln", scherzte Davenport. "Aber wir wissen, dass die Häuptlinge früh und oft treffen können, während die Straftat der Ladegeräte ein Chaos gegen die Angreifer war. Wenn die Häuptlinge in irgendeiner Weise ein 'Anwärter' sind, müssen sie die Ladegeräte hier begraben. Wenn sie es sind." nicht, ich habe in Woche 3 angefangen, eine Tasse zu tragen. Es wurde schwer zu atmen. Es war so ein Jahr. "

    Davenport: Kansas City (-3,5)
    Gagnon: Kansas City (-3,5)
    Sobleski: Kansas City (-3,5)
    Konsens: Kansas City (-3,5)

    Ergebnisvorhersage: Chiefs 30, Chargers 21

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