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Be wary of national primary elections



A national poll released earlier this week provided a shocking conclusion: Democratic leader Joe Biden's lead had waned, while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders advanced to a triple statistic.

Monmouth University's survey immediately met with criticism for good reason. Biden has been in the lead for months, at least 10 points ahead of all other contenders and suddenly dropped to third place? Unlikely. Even the pollsters have admitted that.

Monmouth University Survey Director Patrick Murray admitted that the survey was an "outlier," although the group's methods remained unchanged.

"This is a product of the uncertainty inherent in the query process," Murray said in a statement, noting the high error rate and small sample size of the survey. The numbers we have, "Murray continued. "They should always be seen in the context of what other polls say, not only for the horse race, but also for our understanding of the issues that motivate voters in their decision making."

The survey confirmed what most analysts have been saying for months: Elizabeth Warren is gradually gaining in polls, while Biden's lead is steadily shrinking. The keywords are "gradual" and "steady" the need for healthy skepticism about surveys, especially at the national level. Estimating the national mood is actually quite difficult, and polls tend to be wrong as they are right. Are any bells tolling in 201

6?

Like polls This results in the practice being completely discredited. A majority of registered voters already doubt many of the surveys they hear about in the news media, according to a poll – ironically, right? – Last year's pathogens create mistrust, and if the pollsters are not careful, they can discredit their own legitimacy.


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