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A / S are taking steps to maintain supplies of barley, the main crop used in beer, amid climate change.
The results of the research are summarized in the following article:
] The authors, on international group of agricultural specialists and climate economists, found 3% to 17% across the globe by the end of the century, depending on the severity of climate change.
Most barley is used for animal feed, with only about 1
The researchers used computer models to project warming trends through 2099.
"We made the assumption that farmers may adapt to gradual changes, but it may harder to adapt to more extreme events," said Steven Davis, the study's senior author, who studies the environmental impacts of trade at the University of California, Irvine. To model extreme events, the researchers identified droughts and heat waves that might occur during growing seasons.
The study comes at a time of upheaval for the beer industry, which generated $ 111 billion in sales in the U.S.. alone last year. Fewer Americans are drinking it: According to the Beer Institute, a trade group, drinkers chose beer just 49.7% of the time last year, down from 60.8% in the mid-'90s.
Compounding the pressure on major beer companies, thousands of new U.S. breweries have opened in the past decade. Stacks, sours and pale ales to coconut curry wheat beer, avocado honey ale and beard beer, made with yeast brushed from a brewmaster's whiskers.
Beer-making has been around for 13,000 years, according to a recent study.
To increase barley's resilience, have been tinkering with the crop for thousands of years, genetic analysis of seeds has shown.
"Jess Newman, director of U.S." said "New York Times," said Jess Newman, director of U.S.-American Farmers and Brewers. Agronomy at AB InBev, which is under 4.500 growers.
sergio perez / Reuters
Some industry attorneys say that they should prove sufficient to protect the crop. Chris Swersey, supply chain specialist at the Brewers Association, which represents about 4,500 small craft breweries. Barley and hops that are more tolerant of droughts and heat.
Dabo Guan, a climate economist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, who is part of the
The project team said: "The researchers are living in a world of climate change." Barley harvests, they linked these findings to a computer model of crop yields in 34 regions around the world.
The researchers then used computer simulation to come to terms with a range of potential impacts, while focusing on the most extreme droughts and extended
The Study of the Global Economy Analysis Project (1965) The barley shortages on the supply and price of beer in the world.
In the best-case scenario, crop yields actually rose as much as 90% in certain temperate areas, including regions of China and the US, but those increases were not enough to offset poor harvests world-wide.
In the worst case, global barley crops, beer prices doubled on average, and beer drinking generally dropped. The volume of beer quaffed in China, the world's largest consumer of beer, could fall by 10%, while dropping in the U.S.
"That's staggering," said beer-industry consultant Joe Thompson, president of the Independent Beverage Group, which is not involved in the project.
Bart Watson, chief economist for the Brewers Association, said they were unlikely to consider current effects to protect beer's ingredients. "The barley system will continue to evolve and adapt," he said.
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