With just under a month to go until the Oscars, there is still much uncertainty surrounding some of the year's biggest awards, including the ever-changing tides in the Best Picture race. This is obvious when the SAG Awards bring clarity – not only to the Best Picture frontrunners, but also to the actors. Screen Actors Guild members overlap strongly with members of the Academy, and in the Academy's many branches in the entertainment industry, the reigning branch has the largest number of members. Whatever the SAG voting, the Academy often rejects in the same way.
But this year's SAG Awards, which were presented on Sunday night, were not a guide, but another Kurwball, which has become one of the most unpredictable Oscars in recent years. Against this background, the five biggest souvenirs of the SAG Awards and their possible impact on the biggest categories of the Oscars in February are here. (The full list of SAG winners ̵
Black Panther is not exactly happy to be here
Black Panther was inducted into the Oscar nominations should be a victory Beyond: After all, a superhero movie is awarded as the Best Film Nominee, a decade after The Dark Knight 's far-flung exclusion prompted the Academy's nomination process. (That Black Panther tasted seven Oscar nominations was the icing on the cake.) For a ceremony that had fewer and fewer viewers in recent years, the view was that at least one of the films with the highest Revenues from 2018 could spark Oscar's interest outside of Cinephiles and price-season enthusiasts.
But after winning the stellar performance by casting in a film at the SAG Awards on Sunday Black Panther the race is more than just a welcome addition: it's a legitimate candidate for a dark horse. Granted, winning the award is not the most accurate precursor to winning Best Picture – last year's Oscar winner The Shape of Water has not even earned a nomination – but he gives Ryan Coogler's film some legitimate Groundswear against this year's alleged leaders, Roma and Green Book . (None of these films also received an SAG nomination.)
And when Black Panther gave a boost to the Oscars by winning the Oscars, this also had a knock on the Best Picture nominees of the category: BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star Is Born . ( Crazy Rich Asians was the other nominee in this category but was not nominated for Best Picture.) All three films were on the brink of Best Picture racing and could have earned a SAG victory a chance to use the same as the Green Book or Roma at the Oscars. If there's a movie you can sneak in to the Best Picture Race – even if its odds are still low – it could be Black Panther.
Glenn Close: Wife, Best Actress Leader
The last six SAG winners for Best Actress won the same Oscars Category, making it one of the most reliable forerunners of the price season. This is great news for Glenn Close. She won a Golden Globe for her starring role in The Wife – now she plays on a domestic or transatlantic flight near her – and beats Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born out of time like the best actress of the best actress. Now Close also has the SAG Award for Gaga.
This is officially the Oscar of Close, losing with Gaga and perhaps The Favorite Olivia Colman, who serves as her closest – but at a mile – competitor. (Colman also won the Globes and was able to win at the BAFTAs because it is essentially the British Oscars and therefore very pro-British.) At this point Close has more or less completed the award; She has the most compelling price-season narrative, the most awards and the most momentum. It will be a shock if she does not win for The Wife even if we are not entirely sure if anyone has actually seen The Wife .
Harnesses are officially En Vogue
At first it was Timmy Chalamet at the Golden Globes; Now Michael B. Jordan is at the SAGs.
Whether good or bad, this Oscars season is also the golden age of men wearing harnesses, as they are huge, fashionable dogs.
Malek over Bale
With apology to the great Jackson Maine, the category Best Actor evolves into a two-person race between Rami Malek ( Bohemian Rhapsody ) and Christian Bale ( Vice ). Since both have won in their respective acting categories at the Golden Globes, the one who has won the SAG Prize – in a category where they would compete directly with each other – would have the advantage of reaching February. Nineteen of the 24 SAG winners in this category also won the Best Actor, and the only actor in the past 14 years who won the category, but at the Oscars Denzel Washington lost Fences . which was beaten by Manchester by the Sea Casey Affleck.
You know where I'm going with it: Malek won on Sunday night and gave him the official advantage over Bale. It's by no means a deal. Bohemian Rhapsody for Beginners, got into controversy after The Atlantic published an exposé that contained sexual assaults on the director Bryan Singer. The vote for the SAG Awards ended on January 25, two days after the report was published, but began on December 18th. Since Oscar votes were not even open (starting on February 12), the history of the Atlantic could be more effective than the mere rumors about Singer at previous awards. That still remains to be seen. Just because of the story Malek can be cautiously optimistic that he can win an Oscar in four weeks.
Emily Blunt is an agent of chaos
If there is one acting category that remains unpredictable after the SAGs, it is a supporter. Recent GoldDerby odds still have Regina King ( If Beale Street Could Talk ) as the leader, but she was a surprise to the SAG, which allowed another actress to challenge her in the category. This was a great opportunity for someone like Amy Adams (19459006) Vice (19459007]), Rachel Weisz ( The Favorite ) or Emma Stone ( The Favorite ) to gain some momentum the Oscars
But it was Emily Blunt for her performance in A Quiet Place who got the award. It's a new fold because Blunt was not even nominated at the Oscars. If anything, this is a win in favor of King – though the fact that the SAG and the members of the Academy have the most overlap may not be a big sign considering that the actress was not even nominated. It is probably still king to lose – after all, she has won a Golden Globe – but of the acting categories, the lead actress remains by far the most open position at the Oscars.