British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has insisted he is "very confident" that the House of Commons will support his Brexit deal on Saturday After several days of late-night talks and nearly three years of tense discussions, Johnson has on Thursday the draft of a Brexit agreement with the European Union.
Johnson now has to persuade the majority of UK lawmakers to support the draft agreement if he wants to accept it. Britain left the EU on October 31, something he promised: "Do or die, come , What ever".
The showdown on Saturday is likely to be referred to as the "New Deal or No Deal" moment with the Prime Minister is well aware that it will be his last chance to get MPs to sign the deal before the end of Brexit. To approve the deadline.
However, parliamentary arithmetic looks daunting to Johnson after he has agreed to enter into a deal with the world's largest trade bloc witho with support from the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
The DUP, which supports Johnson's government on a trust and supply basis, has announced that it can not support the agreement on Saturday.
Extraordinary Session This is the first time Parliament has met during the Falklands War on a Saturday since 1
Sterling, which hit a five-month high on Thursday, traded little on Friday morning's trading at $ 1.2891.
"Real prospect of a humiliating defeat"
"A narrow defeat in Saturday's vote over the Brexit deal from Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now our key scenario," said Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe Eurasia Group, a study published on Thursday.
Among other things, the DUP has stated that it will reject Johnson's draft agreement on concessions from the United Kingdom to the EU for customs inspections at entry points in Northern Ireland.
One pedestrian goes one Stairway up the southern bank of the Thames with the Houses of Parliament in the background on 2 September 2019 in London.
TOLGA AKMEN | AFP | Getty Images
"From today's perspective, he faces a humiliating defeat, as the 10 deputies the DUP refuse to support his deal, "Rahman said.
He added that the DUP" plays "during Johnson's English: emaga If you drop your opposition to your deal, there was no sign of it before the vote on Saturday and customs orbit with an effective border in the Irish Sea , "
With no support from the DUP, Johnson is likely to have to count on the support of the 21 Conservative MPs he expelled from the party last month, as well as some opposition Labor legislators.
" It's getting tight "
"Johnson has a chance, but it will be tight," said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, in a research report released on Thursday.
The winner po in the lower house is 320, assuming all agree for the extraordinary meeting on Saturday, seven Sinn Fein deputies are not sitting and the Speaker and three MPs are not voting.
There are currently 287 Conservative MPs, and Johnson has to limit any rebellion among them.According to Pickering's 283 estimates, Johnson's becomes newer Brexit deal so that the Prime Minister needs 37 from outside his own ranks.
The Prime Minister "can probably count on the 21 deputies he has thrown out of Parliament's party in the last two months to support the deal on the basis that they will be brought back into the party," said Pickering. However, this would deprive the Prime Minister of 16 votes.
Earlier this year, when Johnson's predecessor Theresa May brought her own Brexit deal to MPs – for the third and last time – a total of Nine legislators (five from Labor and four independents) supported the Prime Minister.
Pickering said even if she and suspended Conservative MP Charlie Elphicke were now supporting Johnson's deal, he still found himself missing six votes to the majority.