After reviewing the most important bubble games in the last few days, let's take another look at the potential bid thieves that are still around at this week's Championship week.
Atlantic-10 – Bubble teams will be tough on VCU here, but it's likely Dayton or Davidson will both reach the final on Sunday, which could give the Rams trouble.
Big 12 – West Virginia is the Cinderella story after taking last place in the league. The mountaineers have already beaten Oklahoma and Texas Tech and kicked off the match with Kansas on Friday.
Big East – The team to keep an eye on is Xavier, who will have an interesting case shooting Marquette on Friday.
Big Ten – Nebraska is the only potential bid thief alive here, but the Huskers must make five wins in five days to dance. They meet on Friday at Wisconsin.
Mid-American – Buffalo's chances of winning the tournament improved when Toledo was knocked out on Thursday. However, if no one other than the Bulls wins this game, the potential of small bubble teams is low.
Mountain West – Bubble teams desperately need Nevada or the state of Utah to win this tournament, and when they both win their semi-finals on Friday, there will be a collective exhalation.
Pac-12 – Although you might be able to compete against Washington and Arizona in the field, the focus here is on Colorado and Oregon, both of whom have been playing well lately.
Before I look at a seed, I have to briefly point out how the NCAA selection committee rates gains based on the new NET rating.
A collapse of the four stages:
· Tier 1 : Home against teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. Teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. Teams r anked 1-75
· Tier 2 : Home against teams with a rank of 31-75 / neutral against teams with a rank of 51-100 / street against teams with a rank of 76 -135
· Tier 3 : Home teams with a rank of 76-160 / Neutral against teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs.. Teams with a rank of 136-240
· Tier 4 : Home Teams Ranked 161-351 / Neutral Vs. Teams with a rank of 201-351 / Road vs. Teams with a rank of 241-351
I said Tuesday morning that Virginia and Gonzaga were one line, and it's reasonable to question one of those after Tuesday night. Still, it's important to know that it's just a game of 33 for Gonzaga, and it's also their first defeat against a team outside the top 10 of the NET. The victory of the Bulldogs against Duke in Maui will still have a lot of weight, and Gonzaga's metrics are among the best in the nation. For the moment, I leave them in one line, as I do not believe that a loss should drop them by three points on the seed list because of their overall profile.
Outside these points, there are four main competitors for the remaining two top names. With a large selection of Duke and nine wins in the quad-1 segment, North Carolina moved into a row earlier this week. The heels are 11: 1 on the road and have no loss outside of Quad 1, but it's possible that the return of Zion Williamson and a run in the ACC tournament of Duke bring the Blue Devils back into the front row. We'll know a lot more when UNC and Duke face each other in the ACC semi-final. I find it unlikely that three ACC teams would get a seed, but after Tuesday night, chances have increased.
The SEC has a similar situation to Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. At the moment, Kentucky gets the nod after defeating Florida on Saturday. The Wildcats have 10 quad-1 wins, while Tennessee has better losses but fewer top-end wins. The situation of the LSU is obviously in flux for several reasons, but winning the regular season and tournament titles in the SEC could make things interesting.
Michigan State is the other team that's in the competition, but they need to create deep Big Ten tournament runs with Nick Ward back in the lineup, hoping for early eliminations from teams ahead of them on the starting lineup.
The following predictions apply to all games that were played until March 14, 2019. Following the brace I have some thoughts on the last four participants as well involved with the other teams I considered.
|EAST (WASHINGTON, DC)||SOUTH (LOUISVILLE)|
|Columbia – March 22/24||Columbia – 22nd / 24th. March|
|1) Virginia||1) North Carolina|
|16) North Dakota St. / Norfolk St. ] 16) Sam Houston Street|
| 8) Seton Hall
||8) Central Florida|
|9) Baylor||9) Oklahoma|
|Hartford – 21./23. March||San Jose – 22./24. March|
| 5) Marquette
 5) Auburn
|12) Murray St.|| 12) Saint Mary & # 39; s
|4) Kansas St.||4) Kansas|
|13) UC Irvine||13) Old Reign|
|Des Moines – 21st / 21st , March||Tulsa – 22./24. March|
|6) Buffalo||6) Villanova|
|11) Temple||11) Arizona St.|
|3) Purdue  LSU|
|14) Harvard||14) Northeastern|
|Jacksonville – 21./23. March||Columbus – 22./24. March|
|7) Iowa St.||7) Cincinnati|
|10) Syracuse||10) Washington|
|2) Tennessee  Michigan Street|
| 15) Bradley
|MIDWEST ( KANSAS CITY)||WEST ( ANAHEIM)|
|Columbus – 22./24. March||Salt Lake City – 21./23. March|
|1) Kentucky||1) Gonzaga|
|16) [19459012PrairieViewA&M||16) Iona / F. Dickinson|
|8) Iowa||8) VCU|
|9) Utah St.||9) Ole Miss|
|San Jose – 22nd and 24th March||Hartford – 21./23. March|
|5) Virginia Tech||5) Mississippi St.|
|12) New Mexico St.||12) Belmont / NC State [Wisconsin||4) Florida St.|
|13) Liberty||13) Vermont|
|Tulsa – 22./24. March||Salt Lake City – 21./23. March|
|6) Maryland||6) Nevada|
| 11) St. John's / Florida
||11) Ohio St.|
|3) Houston||3) Texas Tech|
|14) North Kentucky  19659029] 14) Georgia St.  Jacksonville – 21./23. March||Des Moines – 21./23. March|
|7) Wofford||7) Louisville|
|10) Minnesota||10) TCU|
|2) Duke  2) Michigan|
|15) Gardner-Webb||15) Colgate|
Last Four In :
St. Johns – It was a close call between Red Storm and Ohio State to find out which team Dayton avoided, but I nodded to the Buckeyes. St. Johns did very little in the non-VCU VCU and lost twice to DePaul, Providence and Xavier. The Red Storm swept Marquette in the regular season before he was knocked off the floor on Thursday night against the Golden Eagles, and I do not feel like they're really in danger. The last three teams were much harder to vote.
Belmont – Having lost to Murray State in the OVC championship game, the Bruins get into the big pool and have had the most convincing case of any of the middle majors who have not won the car bid so far , So far, things are pretty well broken for them. They have a momentum from fellow Lipscomb and won the regular season matchup in Murray State. Despite a blistering 25-5 mark against Division I teams, Belmont's status in the bubble is low given a quad-loss of Quad 3 and no wins over potential big-time candidates.
Florida – After the Gators took care of Arkansas on Thursday, they will get another crack at the LSU. Both games with the Tigers this season have led to overtime, with the road team winning in every competition. It's important to know that Florida is only 3-11 against teams in the big conversation. All three of their quad-1 victories have come out on the road, but they have suffered two defeats in quad-3 in their total of 14 losses.
NC State – A huge comeback and late free throws drove Wolfpack to victory over Clemson In their ACC tournament opening match, they were blown away by Virginia on Thursday. Wolfpack's inconclusive strength is the nation's worst, and only one of their nine ACC victories won against a team that has won a league record (Syracuse). Other home wins against Auburn and Clemson are helpful, but it seems as if every year a team is penalized for a poor non-conference schedule, which may only be the state of NC this year. The fact that, except for two, all defeats against teams have come in the top 25 of the NET and decent metrics, she currently has little in the cut line.
Other Teams Considered :
Indiana – The Hoosiers won their last four regular season games to return to the bubble picture, but a lackluster performance for most of the Thursday night. Ohio State was possibly the last nail in the coffin. A passage from the state of Michigan represents two of IU's six quad-1 wins, and the committee chair's comments on diligence in investigating the effects of injury could certainly be felt here. Nevertheless, the Hoosiers have now lost 15, and we have not received a single major bid in just two games over Georgia since 2001. Therefore, despite the losses of Quad 3 or Quad 4, the story is certainly not the side of the Hoosiers.
UNC Greensboro – The Spartans put a tough test to Wofford in the SoCon final and took another victory over co-driver Furman to get there. All six losses of the UNCG fall in quad 1, but two wins against Furman are the only notable ones. The predictive metrics also offer them no benefits, so the Spartans are likely to break into NIT despite 26 Division I games won.
Alabama – The Crimson Tide came from behind and knocked Ole off Miss on Thursday night, a rematch with Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. Alabama, like so many other bubble teams, has already suffered 14 defeats, two of which fall in quad 3 and five against teams that are not in the big talk. Home victories over Kentucky, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are the best in Alabama, but it's hard to see them coming into the field without another win against the Wildcats.
Creighton – The Bluejays still have no loss of a team outside the top 75 of the NET, but the last second of the defeat on Thursday against Xavier brought them for the 14th time this season. Although Creighton has three quad-1 wins, Marquette's road victory is the only win against a comfortable team in the field.
Xavier – The Musketeers, who have won seven of eight successors, continue the spurt last season with a six-game defeat. Although they only have one win against a team in the top 50 of the net, but four quad-1 wins and five more in quad 2. A quad-3 loss holds them back, but a second win against Villanova would remain hopeful alive ,
Texas – The Longhorns fell to 16-16 in a loss of the Big 12 tournament against Kansas. While they have five quad-1 victories, I can not see the committee setting up a 500-man team.
Clemson – The defeat against NC State on Wednesday left the Tigers in quad-1 games falling to 1-10 feels like too much to overcome. Their only major loss came in Miami, but Clemson's best wins were against a Justin Robinson-less Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Lipscomb, who were all at home.
Furman – The aforementioned loss of UNC Greensboro was probably the end for the Paladins, who ended 13-5 at the SoCon. You have a huge non-conference street victory and only one loss in Villanova. However, home defeat to Samford could still persecute them, and it is noteworthy that three came from Furman's 25 wins against non-Division I opponents. The Paladins were also just 2-5 in games against the other top teams at SoCon.
Conference Breakdown :
Big Ten (8): Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan, Minnesota Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Duke, Florida State, Louisville , North Carolina, State of North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (7): Baylor, State of Iowa, Kansas Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech
SEK (7): Auburn, Florida, Kentucky , LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
American (4): Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Temple
] Great East (4): Marquette, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova  Mountain West (2): Nevada, Utah
Ohio Valley (2): Belmont, Murray State *
Pac-12 (2): State of Arizona, Washington
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary # 39; s
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Ocean 10: VCU
Atlantic Ocean: Liberty *
Great Sky: Montana
Bi g South: Gardner-Webb *
G Great West: UC Irvine
Colonial Style: Northeast *
Conference USA: Old Dominion
Horizon: Northern Kentucky *
MAAC: Iona *
MEAC : Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Bradley *
Northeast: Fairleigh Dickinson
SWAC: Prairie View A & M
Summit: North Dakota State *
Sunbelt: Georgia State  WAC: New Mexico State
* – Automatic bid received
Follow Andy on Twitter ( @andybottoms ) for more thoughts on college tires and to get an update as soon as possible new parentheses will be released.