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buy stock sectors when the bond market flashes a recession signal



A recession warning is triggered on the bond market. However, certain stock sectors can still hold.

Stocks can have a bit more room to run until they get hit. Six months after the yield curve normally reverses when equities peak, Garthwaite said. In the three months following a changeover, the S & P 500 rose on average by 4 percent and rose by 75 percent. However, over a longer time horizon ̵

1; after 18 months – the S & P fell by an average of 8 percent, only 38 percent.

In some sectors, however, some sectors perform better than others. In the first three months after the inversion, insurance and industrials recorded the strongest average outperformance. Semiconductors and durable consumer goods have been the biggest delays in the past.

One year after the reversal of the yield curve, however, there is a clearer split. Defensive stocks such as health care equipment, pharmaceuticals and insurance outperformed over the last 12 months after the yield curve reversed. A defensive stock has a constant demand for products and is not normally associated with the rest of the business cycle. They tend to withhold a constant dividend and relatively stable returns regardless of stock market conditions.

Depending on market conditions, "cyclical" stocks tend to underperform, according to Credit Suisse. Cars and technical hardware are among the laggards 12 months after the yield curve was reversed.


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