Dominic Lipinski / AP
The UK faces another showdown next month in the context of Brexit, a matter that has paralyzed British politics for several years and ended the careers of the two previous prime ministers.
Earlier this year, Parliament has defeated a British withdrawal three times agreement that the government of Prime Minister Theresa May had negotiated with the European Union. Parliament reassembles on 3 September.
Here are some of the key challenges facing new Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has pledged to eliminate the UK from the EU one way or another on October 31st.
What strategy is Prime Minister Johnson pursuing to make Brexit a reality?
Johnson calls on the EU to remove the provision that reduced the deal in Parliament: a commitment for the UK to stay within a customs agreement with the EU until both sides find a way forward to avoid a hard border across the island of Ireland. The leaders of the bloc in Brussels have repeatedly stated that this is not negotiable. If Brussels remains, Johnson is prepared to remove his country from the EU without consent. This would mean that tariffs and customs controls at the borders would quickly come into effect and slow down trade. Analysts say a Brexit without agreement would hurt the EU economy, but significantly more for the UK.
A majority in parliament refuses to leave the EU without agreement. Can British lawmakers stop Johnson?
Lawmakers have limited options and little time. One possibility is to try to gain control of the legislature and vote to block Brexit without agreement and postpone the exit date again. This is difficult in the British parliamentary system, where the prime minister and his government control the agenda. Another option threatened by opposition leader Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn is calling for a vote of no confidence in Johnson's government, which is only a few weeks old, but it is by no means clear that Corbyn could win a vote and form a new government , Even if Johnson were to lose a vote of no confidence, he could try to postpone the general election until after 31 October so that the UK can break out of the EU, as the deadline is already set by law. Analysts say it would be very irresponsible and cause a stir, but could happen. "I think it is quite possible that we will leave the European Union at the end of October, although the House of Commons will be very determined to prevent it," says Robert Hazell, a constitutional scholar at College College London.
Let's say that Parliament is in a position to fight off a Brexit without an agreement for the time being.
Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Center for European Reform, a London think tank. Many are considering what Johnson's Plan B or perhaps its ultimate strategy is: "Boris Johnson refers to a parliamentary election and uses the narrative:" It's the people against Parliament. I tried to push through Brexit and Parliament stopped me. So vote for me and give me a bigger majority and I'll be able to deliver what you want, "says Lowe.
In this scenario, Johnson carried out a classic populist campaign against the bureaucrats in Brussels while holding the British Parliament called anti-democratic and defying the outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016. Like most observers here, Lowe sees Johnson as a very flexible, political animal.
"I think the only question that really interests Boris Johnson is is how I can stay prime minister, "says Lowe," and everything else he does right now flows from it.
Could Queen Elizabeth be dragged into Brexit and forced into action?
If the Queen interfered, that would feel like a Brexit's "highlight," but it would Hazell, University College London, offers a distant scenario: If the parliament hits Johnson with a vote of no confidence and chooses a new leader, but Johnson refuses to resign in hopes of triggering Brexit, the queen would have the power to oust him But Hazell says he finds it "unimaginable" that Johnson would not resign, and that the queen is the head of state and should stand above politics, and if she were dragged into Brexit, that would be in the royal family, let alone for the British people, very badly arrive.
The last Prime Minister, Theresa Mai spent three years with it to try and prevent the Brexit. Why would anyone think that Johnson is not heading for a similar fate?
The line you hear in political circles in London is that Johnson's Prime Presidency can be measured in months or years. The Brexit has become so precarious and unpredictable. Johnson has advantages over its predecessor. Unlike May, who voted against leaving the EU in 2016, Johnson was involved in leading the referendum campaign and has greater political credibility among Brexit supporters. The analysts regard Johnson as a more skillful politician than his predecessor, who looked wooden and could not convince the opponents. Johnson is also something of a political escape artist. Often funny and disarming, he has grossly misled voters during the referendum and so far has not paid any political price. Brexit has proven to be a career cemetery for prime ministers. Now Johnson has to prove he has what it takes.