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Home / US / Census data show that the Chicago area is falling for the fourth time in a row; The districts of Cook, DuPage and Lake are also decreasing

Census data show that the Chicago area is falling for the fourth time in a row; The districts of Cook, DuPage and Lake are also decreasing

New census data show that the Chicago region has lost its population for the fourth year in a row, continuing a nationwide downward trend that could jeopardize future federal funding, economic prosperity and political representation for the bereaved.

The Chicago subway station lost importance According to data from the US Census Bureau, the data from 2017 to 2018 was estimated at 22,068 inhabitants on Thursday. While New York and Los Angeles also contracted, the Chicago area saw a greater decline in both total and percentage terms. The area lost 0.23 percent of its population, more than double the 0.10 percent of New York.

As defined in the census, the Chicago metropolis of Cook County extends into the suburbs and includes parts of southeastern Wisconsin and northwestern Indiana. Despite the population decline, according to the latest estimates, almost 9.5 million people still live in it.

Cook County, which includes the city of Chicago, has seen its population decline for the fourth year in a row at 24,009, or 0.46 percent from a year ago. While Cook is still the second most populous county in the United States after Los Angeles County, it has been in a downtrend since the early 2000s, when the county's population declined by 1

44,220 for seven consecutive years before it began to rise again.

At that time, the collar circles – DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane and Will – added hundreds of thousands as Cook's population shrank. But that is no longer the case, the data show. Population growth in the collars slowed considerably, and the total population of the five counties actually declined from 2017 to 2018.

Over the past eight years, the Halsland counties have grown by 38,273 people. In an equivalent period, which ended in 2007 – just before the Great Recession – this gain was more than eleven times greater, with 428,954 more people populated these counties than at home.

There were a few growth years in the region last year; The districts of Kendall, Kane, Will, and McHenry recorded modest gains. The districts of DuPage and Lake have lost residents for the third consecutive year, a total of 9,539 residents between the two districts during this period.

The data released on Thursday include the population by county and metropolitan area. State-by-state data released in December showed that Illinois declined for the fifth year in a row and lost around 45,000 between 2017 and 2018.

Illinois Population Concern Focuses Primarily on Residents When you move, census figures also reflect "natural" gains or losses – births vs. births. Deaths – and the number of people coming from other countries, states or other nations. In the Chicago area, declining birth rates and stagnant international migration have contributed to resident resettlement in recent years.

Census numbers on migration are expressed only in terms of net profit or loss. Cook County's net migration has been negative for at least 27 years, meaning more people are being moved away than being moved to the area. The latest data show that the net immigration rate is currently at 8.6 per 1,000 population, although the lowest point in the county was in 2005, when about 13 out of 1,000 more people were left than had invaded since 2011 every year more than what reverses the previous trend.

Census figures do not explain why many people move out of the Chicago area – some followed their employers or graduated – but in interviews with the Tribune Former residents who opted to resign gave rise to a litany of reasons, including high taxes, government corruption and crime rates, economic instability, long commutes, a general increase in the cost of living and the weather.

Michael Gillam and Mary Green, both from Ohio, loved the Chicago skyline, the waterfront, and the restaurant scene while living in Ravenswood in 2015 and in 2016 In Naperville, DuPage County, he lived a more suburban lifestyle for a year.

However, when it was time to take root, the couple moved to Houston in February 2018, looking for more affordable housing and a warmer climate in one of the country's fastest-growing areas.

"We just wanted to move where our money would continue," said Gillam, 29, software developer. "The real estate market here is fantastic, it explodes. In Illinois, people seem to leave. "

Gillam and Green, a 33-year-old state-certified practitioner, said they had become uncomfortable with the city's crime and instability in the Illinois government, especially after seeing two people-state budget that ended in 2017. They want to buy a house and were afraid that real estate in a neighborhood with declining population is a bad investment and hard to sell.

I will be returning to Chicago for their wedding in the summer of 2021, they are not planning to do so permanently.

"No regrets," said Gillam. "We have never looked back."

Not just migration

Escape to other states is a factor in the population decline in the region, but not the only one.

Some experts also point out that the metropolitan area does not attract enough new arrivals to compensate for people who are moving away. Immigration from other countries has also mitigated the loss of population for a long time, but in recent years the inflow has been less robust according to the census estimates. Meanwhile, the birth rate is slowing nationwide, which means fewer new residents will have to pay for other losses.

Example Cook County. From 2017 to 2018, according to the census, there were more births (63,850) than deaths (43,455), leading to a "natural increase". Over the same period, Cook recorded a net increase of 18,796 people from other countries. (The census includes American troops and civilians returning to the United States in this census.)

However, both gains failed to offset the net loss of 63,339 on domestic migration. All in all, this leads to a total loss of the county of more than 24,000 people.

In Kane County, a suburb to the west, the picture looks different, with thousands of babies promoting population growth. Kane had an estimated 6,516 births last year, enough to compensate for a net migration loss of 2,011 people and 3,446 deaths.

From 2017 to 2018, Kane recorded the highest natural growth rate in the region's 1,000 population in births and deaths. Although Kanes birth rate has declined over the years – reflecting the rest of the state – he is still the highest among the suburbs in northeastern Illinois, with 12.2 births per 1,000 population.

These trends surprised Tara Burghart, who is a rural councilman in the western suburbs of Geneva, and formerly ran the blog "Go West Young Mom," a hyperlocal site for parents in the Kane County area.

Burghart believes the county attracts young families with great schools, libraries and a thriving park districts and more affordable housing compared to other parts of the region.

"And people might feel that they have more physical space and maybe economic space to have another child," she said.

Amanda Pauli, who lives in Geneva, agreed It's a great place to raise children – but that's not enough to keep them around. Her family plans to move to Michigan in June, near the city she grew up in and near relatives.

Pauli said they currently pay about $ 1,000 a month in property taxes, as opposed to the $ 450 a month that is payable in Michigan. You will also live on a lake in a wooded area, where there are more opportunities for cycling, hiking and skiing.

"The two biggest things are the family and the cost of living," said Pauli-home mother of two school-aged children. "And the free part of it. We really miss that. "

Your family will join one side of the net migration calculation, those who leave. However, some experts say that the focus should also be on attracting new people to the region.

"We do not have a particularly high churn rate, but in relation to our population very few people come here from the rest of the country," said Daniel Kay Hertz, research director at the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability.

Using numbers from The American Community Survey 2015, conducted by the US Census, found his agency that Illinois was in the middle of the US Census. The pack was national on the rate of people who left the state but was on the US third place from below, at the rate of people who came in.

The possible reasons why people do not move to Illinois should be part of the conversation, Hertz said. 19659002] "The narratives surrounding the state issue and may change the choices Hertz said, "And those in Illinois are really, really, really negative in a way that I think surpassing some of the problems compared to other locations. "

Jody Cameron, 44, came to Chicago from Dallas in November 2016 to get a job. In the Radiology Administration, he said he was glad he had taken the step.

While he found the cost of living in Texas much lower – there is no state income tax and less parking due to more open space – he said his salary had risen 50 percent because his education was in greater demand.

He values ​​Chicago. & # 39; Diversity, restaurants, cultural opportunities and sporting events, and feels no less secure than in Dallas. When he releases pictures of snow on social media, friends in Texas comment that they are jealous. He does not fail to burn hot summers.

"The people here are like, why should you move here?" Said Cameron, who lives in the neighborhood of Logan Square. "Because people think the grass is greener elsewhere. In my view, there are pros and cons of every place.

Consequences of Change

Chicago's population loss blends into Illinois with a broader pattern of decline that lost its place as the country's fifth-largest state in 2017.

Listed by 102 counties in Illinois only 16 grew from 2017 to 2018, and only 11 were able to make net profits this decade, said Brian Harger, a research associate at the Center for Governmental Studies in northern Illinois University.

After several decades of modest growth, the state population began to decline after 2013 and has since had a net loss of more than 138,000 people, he said. The growth in the Chicago area and some failures were enough to offset losses elsewhere, but that was not the case in recent years, he said.

"Even the Chicago area did not work very well," Harger said. "There were only a few districts on the periphery that gained in population, and their profits were relatively modest."

Subway Districts – Districts that surround a core of at least 50,000 people, such as Moline in the four-city cities of Peoria and Bloomington – similarly suffer larger net migration deficits that have turned the population gain into a loss, census data shows ,

From 2001 to 2007, subway areas added 144,089 inhabitants, mainly due to immigration gains. However, in the last seven years, these areas have lost a third of this profit, about 43,000 people.

As far as the rural districts of the state are concerned, they have been losing their population since 1997, as the deaths of residents exceed births and more people emigrate come in.

While many experts complain about population declines, Chicago Demographic Democrat Rob Paral investigated recent numbers from Cook County, stating, "There is no cause for joy or cause for alarm.

Since Cook is such a large county, the number of inhabitants is less important than the percentage change Cook County's population increased for several years after 2010, Paral said in 2015, the percentage decline was minimal.

The population loss is While important to monitor, he does not believe there is a crisis in Cook County.

"There is no mass exodus," he said, "I think that's important, because for many years there was a fear the county would have sped up the loss, but that's not what we're seeing people used the loss of population here … as a hook to hang their favorite problem, they would say it was because of taxes or this and that Figures do not really support the assumption that we have a serious problem. "

Other experts warn that the consequences of a progressive loss of population are bleak

At least $ 34 billion in federal funding for programs According to a recent report by the George Washington University Institute of Public Policy, direct support to Illinois residents for the upcoming 2020 census. Population loss could mean less money. Illinois is also risking the loss of up to two mandates in Congress if that count causes a declining population in one decade, with consequences for long-term political representation, according to a report by the Illinois Complete Count Commission.

Population loss in the Chicago area is particularly worrying in terms of the region's economy, said Aseal Tineh, Associate Political Analyst at the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning.

"We talk a lot about how demographic trends and population changes are a condition of economic prosperity," she said. "If we see a population decline, it may indicate how well the economy is suited to individuals and communities. But the opposite is true. With the loss of the population, we also lose the human capital and our workforce. And that concerns the growth of the regional economy. So the concern is in both directions.

Norman Walzer, senior scientist at the Center for Governmental Studies of the NIU, who has been studying rural development and public finances in rural areas for nearly 50 years, found that these parts of the state are already coping with the lack of access to health care. Walzer said that the population slump also weighed on the finances of the municipalities.

Population decline can tear down the social fabric of the most affected communities, especially when businesses close and local schools close or merge, said Kathleen Cagney, director of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago.

An aging population with less growth and a stagnant birth rate is shifting the economic burden more to younger workers, she added.

"You have to think about something called dependency," she said. "The number of people on the job market is lower than those in need of support. As people live longer, many of these people are not fully engaged in the labor market. So there is a population that needs some form of support and fewer people to help.


eleventis@chicagotribune.com [19659002] Twitter @kcecireyes

Twitter @angie_leventis

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