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Home / World / China may backslide on deleveraging if trade was looms

China may backslide on deleveraging if trade was looms



By Elijah Glenn and Stella Qiu

BEIJING (Reuters) – China's efforts to reduce its reliance on debt and its economic benefits .

This is what the year in Beijing is about. "

What is the year in Beijing? ] But there have been signs in the past few weeks that as US President Donald Trump has ratcheted up the pressure on China over its trade policy –

The most obvious sign of this came last Tuesday when China's central bank unexpectedly announced it was cutting the amount of cash that banks must keep in reserve.

Then on Thursday, China's state planner said it would cut to an average of 10 percent

China has so far this year vowed to lighten the tax burden on individuals and businesses and on May 1 wants to lower the value-added tax rate for the manufacturing, transportation, construction, telecommunication and agricultural sectors.

economists predicting that it would be a no-holds-barred trade, then Beijing would like to see a lot more support industry and the overall economy.

"If you were to see a negative growth shock, then I do not think they are still the line and say we are still going to make priority. I think that would change priorities, "said Alex Wolf, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

The Communist Party government has been traditionally sensitive to anything that could create unrest, such as strikes and other protests, and potentially leads to a challenge to its authority.

19659012] SIGNS OF SLOWING MOMENTUM

Too bad, over the past year China has powered down through a slowdown in home price gains, weaker credit growth and environmental crackdown to deliver better-than-expected growth.

In the first quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's second-largest economy grew 6.8 percent – well above the annual target.

And some do not see the trade tensions get

"We are still optimistic about the global economic recovery and China's exports outlook, giving Beijing a leeway to stick to the current deleveraging agenda," said Robin Xing, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley.

But

If there is a faltering in exports – whose strong growth last year provided cover for Beijing to drive down the leverage –

Net exports' contribution to GDP growth was the highest in 10 years, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

Analysts caution that it is still too early to assess the direct impact of tariffs on China's economic growth and macro-policy, as none of the recently announced tariffs

Even if Trump's current threats to impose tariffs on $ 150 billion of Chinese imports are fully implemented, that would still be less than 7 percent of China's total exports last year, and less than 2 percent of GDP.

The direct impact of tariffs is most likely to initially show up in higher inflation and some localized unemployment

Cong Liang, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's national department economy, told Reuters that China's job market is resilient, with a shortage of labor in coastal cities showing the market is unable to absorb any job losses caused by a Sino-U.S. trade was.

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The US Government has also recently rejected attempts by Chinese companies to buy a number of American assets, particularly in sensitive sectors.

These barriers to capital flows and trade will hinder both economies and also hurt China's effort to move up the value chain, improve the quality of its economic growth

MORE RELIANCE ON DOMESTIC DEMAND

The economic tension "will probably dampen productivity growth in the coming decades; it will dampen it in China and it will probably dampen productivity growth globally," said Louis Kuijs, head of economics economics at Oxford Economics.

"We are basically expecting more and more people to grow up in a row."

Oxford Expects China's GDP to grow 6.5 percent this year.

The economists say that investors

One of the things to do in bank reserve requirements. Xing from Morgan Stanley.

(Reporting by Elias Glenn and Stella Qiu; Editing by Martin Howell) [China] 19659036]
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