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Climate change: 'Trump effect' threatens Paris pact



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President Donald Trump's words and actions are restricting global efforts to cut carbon.

The analysis says the US's withdrawal from the Paris

The author says the world is in denial about President Trump's true impact.

President Trump has brought his country out of the Landslide Climate Agreement by […]

The study comes as a delegate begins two weeks of UN-led talks here on the future of the Paris pact Citizens of Pittsburgh and not Paris.

However, the US pull-out would be galvanizing efforts to cut carbon.

The sense of unity was underlined in November 201

7 When Syria signed the Paris agreement, leaving the US alone in the world as the only country rejecting the deal.

Media caption Secretary General Antonio Guterres: "Climate change is a global issue, we are all failing."

But this new report. Trump's words and deeds are causing "very real damage" to the Paris agreement.

The author outlines three key areas where the trump effect is having an impact.

Under the President, US federal environmental regulations on oil, gas and coal have returned, and as a result, some of the dirtiest fossil fuel projects have become more attractive to investors.

Goodwill damaged

The author says that the US withdrawal from Paris has created the "moral and political cover for others to follow suit", citing the examples of Russia and Turkey – which both have declined to ratify the Paris deal.

The US pull-out has "severely damaged goodwill at international negotiations", something that's crucial to progress in these talks here in Poland.

When it comes to fossil fuels, the author cites the example of 36 US banks, which saw a decline of 38% in 2016 after the agreement was signed, but which rose by 6% in 2017 after President Trump was sworn in.

"This is not a coincidence, there are some underpinning these trends and political signals," said Joseph Curtin, a senior fellow at the IIEA.

"The Paris agreement sent a shiver they were exposed to stranded assets and those political leaders were really serious about climate change. "

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Image caption

President Trump made a key election promise
                

"There is absolutely no doubt that the trump effect has generated a sense of uncertainty."

The switch to coal and oil investments has hurt renewable energy Investment in the US and this has had a global knock-on effect, the author says.

On the political front, Russia, Turkey, Australia and Brazil have all cited the example of President Trump to limit their actions on climate change. Russia and Turkey have said they will not ratify the agreement.

The newly elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has sent mixed messages about climate change. But in recent days, his government has ruled out hosting next year's major climate conference.

The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, speaking recently to the BBC.

"It is clear that the world is more polarized, we have more and more "He said."

"We see the trust between public opinion and institutions necessary political will. "

Sour atmosphere

While the EU, China and India have promised to take more ambitious steps toward the Paris agreement, study author Joseph Curtin believes they are reluctant to take major steps without the participation of the US.

"There's no way the big players will upgrade their ambition without some sort of quid pro quo from the US," he told BBC News.

However, some of those involved in the UN climate process argue that they are focused on the impact of Trump is mistaken.

"It's not just about political leaders in Brazil and the US," said Achim Steiner, who heads the United Nations Development Program.

"The world has seven billion people and over 190 nations, so they are not the entire story – there has been an issue on this issue by India and China . "

The author of the new study says the Paris deal will survive in the short term.

"But in the longer term, without US support, the Paris agreement does not want to be effective and we should be honest about that. "

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