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Home / US / CNN Key Races: The road to the House majority is moving into focus as a dozen races are moving towards Democrats

CNN Key Races: The road to the House majority is moving into focus as a dozen races are moving towards Democrats

With 100 days to Election Day, Democrats are able to make substantial gains in parliament, backed by an elite electorate and some significant headwinds against Republicans.

Democratic engagement is also evident in fundraising with more than 70 Democrats challengers outdoing Republican opponents in the 95 home race CNN rated as competitive this cycle.

President Donald Trump looks to be a resistance for Republicans, with a ratification rating set between the high 30s and mid 40s depending on the survey. His struggles with independents should be a warning signal to the GOP, considering how critical this group was in previous midterm elections.

Nearly six out of ten independents disapprove of the president's work in the NBC / WSJ poll compared to 36% who agree. In addition, independents prefer a democratically controlled congress with a margin of 48% to 26%.

By comparison, independent parties supported Republicans in 201

4 by 54% to 42%, while gaining 13 seats in parliament. In 2010, independents supported the Republicans with 19 points – 56% to 37% – en route to 63 seats. The Democrats received 30 seats in parliament in 2006, when the Independents moved 18 points in their favor – 57% to 39%.

Another number to keep in mind is the gender gap. More than six in ten women disapprove of the President's work in a recent NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist poll. Half of the men agree. That's an amazing spread of 43 points.

Almost six out of ten suburban women (57%) disapprove of the President's work. With a lead of 59% to 31%, they vote more for the Democratic candidate this fall. These are sensational numbers, considering how many battlefields lie on the battlefield in the suburbs.

In light of this, CNN is pulling 12 seats toward Democrats, including seven that are now classed as Toss-Ups. The Democrats must win 23 seats to gain control of the house.

There are currently 11 seats held or vacated by Republicans who are categorized as Lean Democratic or better by CNN, which would bring the party almost half of its magic number. Of the 27 seats that are currently rated as Toss-Ups, 25 are Republicans – and Hillary Clinton won 11 of them in 2016.

Republicans have strong incumbents who run in several of these districts, such as Rep. Mike Coffman in Colorado. Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida and Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, with unique personal marks and a proven ability to survive adverse political winds.

The majority of the House is accessible to Democrats, but it is far from certain.

Movie Stars:

IA-03: Two-year GOP Rep. David Young runs against Democrat Cindy Axne in the 3rd district of Iowa, owned by Des Moines and Council Bluffs. Axne, a small business owner and former civil servant, outperformed Young in the second quarter of 2018 by more than $ 110,000, despite Young still earning $ 1.4 million in cash at $ 1.4 million. Barack Obama won this district with 52% of the votes in 2008 and 51% in 2012. Trump ran it at 48% in 2016. The district is equally divided between Democrats and Republicans – around 169,000 registered voters for each – with another 161,000 not affiliated with a political party. Another factor that could pose the challenge here: tariffs on pork and soybeans amid the impact of Trump's trade dispute with China and other countries. Race draws from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

FL-13: Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist appears to be in the 13th district of St. Petersburg for re-election. The former GOP governor has more than $ 2.1 million in the bank at the final exam, overtaking potential Republican challenger Brad Sostack ($ 100,000) and George Buck ($ 5,700). In another environment, this race would be a Republican top destination, with Crist only scoring four points in 2016. The name of the game for the GOP this year is the defense of the seats they currently hold. Race moves from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic

ME-02: Bruce Poliquin is the only Republican representative from New England and a top-democratic destination in this cycle. The two-term congressman walks in the rural working-class district that includes Lewiston and Bangor against state veteran Jared Golden, a veteran of the Marine Corps. The district spiked strongly to Trump in 2016, supporting it by 51% to 41% after rising 53% to 44% for Obama four years earlier. The Democrats plan to cast Poliquin's votes in favor of the GOP tax plan and override the central concerns of the Affordable Care Act in the campaign. The only area in which Poliquin has an overwhelming advantage is money. He sits on more than $ 2.6 million, compared to $ 356,000 for Golden – although the Democrat even ran in the money race in the last quarter. Race draws from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

OH-12: The August Special Elections in 12th Ohio County give both parties a final opportunity to assess where they are are the mid-November. Democratic achievement has been the history of election contests in the House since Trump's election, even though the party has yet to win only one victory – Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania. As was the case in this March contest, millions were spent on television in this race in Ohio by the campaigns and outside groups. For the Democrats, Danny O & Connor's victory would further encourage the party as it seeks to recapture the house. A win by Troy Balderson would make the Republicans breathe a sigh of relief. However, a margin closer to Trump's 11-point spread here in 2016 would send further signals to Republicans running in more competitive districts in this cycle that they are in danger. Republicans have controlled this suburban Columbus district for more than three decades, so the race seems to be to lose Balderson. But a low turnout in the summer, with voters focusing more on family vacations and school purchases, could work in favor of the party with enthusiasm on that cycle. Race draws from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

PA-16: GOP Representative Mike Kelly's district became more competitive after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redrawn the card earlier this year and reunited Erie County. The four-term lawmaker is still preferred to win reelection, though he faces a real challenge from Marine Corps veteran Ron DiNicola. Kelly holds a key cash advantage in July, with $ 1.7 million to DiNicola $ 342,000. DiNicola could get a boost from the DCCC, which included him in the committee's Red to Blue program, earning him the fundraising and organizational support of the committee. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican

PA-17: The sole battle of the incumbent this cycle seems to tip Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb over the three-term GOP Rep Keith Rothfus. A recent survey by Monmouth University revealed that Lamb had a 51% to 39% lead over Rothfus in the 17th district, which dropped almost 21 points to less than one under the new congress card from a district that went for Trump changed three points. Lamb outperformed Rothfus in the second quarter with fund-raising of around $ 200,000 and held a slight cash balance advantage. Lamb is seen more favorably within the district than Rothfus, and Trump's disapproval is 51% – including 43% of voters in the district who expressly oppose it. Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

SC-01: This race remains a long time for the Democrats, but the party's prospects have gotten a slight boost as state legislator Katie Arrington defeated rep. Mark Sanford in the GOP primary. During the main phase, Arrington made Sanford's criticism of the president a key issue, stating that the GOP was "the party of President Donald J. Trump." Trump contributed the district with 54% in 2016 – by Mitt Romney's 58% share in 2012 – and its lowest score among the six GOP districts in the state. The President's policy, particularly with regard to tariffs and offshore drilling, could pose a challenge to a Republican candidate in Lowcountry. Having initially supported the president's plan to drill almost all US coastal areas, Arrington now says she is resisting off the coast of South Carolina. Arrington's general opponent is Democrat Joe Cunningham, a construction lawyer and owner of a yoga studio. He started the month with a significant cash-on-hand benefit – $ 318,000 to $ 61,000. The race moves from a solid Republican to the Likely Republican

TX-07: GOP Rep John Culberson seeks a 10th term in this Houston area area, giving Clinton a single point wore in 2016. Romney won here by 21 points – 60% to 39% – four years earlier. This traditionally Republican district has undergone dramatic demographic changes: white people now account for about 45% of the population, Hispanics 31%, blacks 12% and Asian Americans 10%. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher is one of at least 20 Democratic challengers who raised more than $ 1 million in the second quarter and more than doubled Culberson. The established GOP still holds a cash reserve of $ 1.2 to $ 797,000. Race draws from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

VA-02: It's safe to say that Scott Taylor's second campaign will be tougher than his first as he turns a bad one financed defeated Democratic opponents by 22 points. This year he runs against Elaine Luria, a retired naval officer and small business owner. She outperformed $ 745,000 in the second quarter, down from $ 200,000 in cash. Democrat Ralph Northam won this quarter 51% to 47% against Republican Ed Gillespie in the 2017 governor's contest. Trump scored 48% of the vote in 2016. Taylor's offer is made more difficult by Corey Stewart's withdrawal this fall on the GOP card in Virginia. Taylor, a former Navy SEAL, has criticized Stewart and said he has "a zero shot" defeating Democratic Senator Tim Kaine based on the campaign he leads. If some GOP voters stay home because they are against Stewart's hardline policy, Taylor's chances could be a success. Race draws from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

VA-07: The District of GOP Rep. Dave Brat, stretching from the Richmond area to the Exurbs outside of Washington extends, serves as a barometer as the Republicans in November live with voters from the suburbs. The 2016 reorganization in Virginia made this district more competitive and created an additional challenge for Brat, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. In 2016, Trump took the sixth district six points – 50% to 44%. Northam lost the district in 2017 by less than four points. Brat will face Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA Operations Officer. It has outperformed Brat by more than $ 140,000 in the second quarter, even though it has nearly double cash – $ 917,000 to $ 465,000. As in Ward 2, Stewart could also be a factor in this race. Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

WV-03: Democrat Richard Ojeda attempts to turn around a district that Trump carried out on a populist platform of nearly 50 points personal appeal. A Monmouth University poll last month showed a close race between Ojeda at 43% and Republicans nominated Carol Miller at 41%. Ojeda outperformed Miller in the second quarter, with $ 351,000 to $ 291,000. While the district has supported Republicans at the presidential level in recent cycles, he was represented by former Democratic member of parliament Nick Rahall by 2015 and favored Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in his Senate race of 2012. Race draws from Likely Republican to Toss-Up

WI-03: This western Wisconsin district is another that would be a top GOP target if the landscape looked different. Democrat Ron Kind was unopposed in 2016, when the district went 49% to 44% for Trump four years after winning 55% to 44%. Child, who seeks a twelfth term, has $ 3.1 million in the bank. He will face retired Colonel Steve Toft, who started July with $ 107,000 in cash. This financial benefit, along with the declining approval ratings of the President in Badger State, should be enough to keep the seat comfortably in democratic hands. Race moves from likely democratic to Solid Democratic

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