Published on December 6, 2018 |
by Zachary Shahan
6. December 2018 by Zachary
Thousands or tens of thousands of Tesla Model 3 shoppers received their cars earlier than expected. Tesla reached its original Production Plan for Model 3.
Misleading analysts and media coverage of Tesla continue. One of the most common wrong or misleading actions regarding Tesla is a strange one. Yes, the Tesla Model 3 production ramp was slower over time than Tesla had predicted in previous quarters ̵
Every time someone says Tesla has delayed his original Production Plan for Model 3 I can wince a little. Tesla actually put his original plan for the Model 3 into a nutshell, which meant that tens of thousands of buyers got their Model 3 faster than originally expected. I'll get back to the original timeline right away, but we should go through the new comments first.
To be clear, the new comments come from a Tesla bull, Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research. New Street Research has set a target of $ 530 on Tesla. His statement this week (about Teslarati and of Barron ) read: "With a high shot, Tesla failed in his original plan, but scored a world-class result. The next production sites will be much more efficient and increase very fast. "Of course, I agree with the perspective expressed in the end, but I note that Tesla has not reached his original plan . Nevertheless, the model 3 is inaccurate.
Luckily, I've already dealt with this problem, so in the following I will mainly republish an article that I originally published in March this year. First, however, the short summary points are as follows: In 2013, Elon Musk predicted that the production of Model 3 would begin no later than 2017 (note that this was before the name of the model "Model 3"). The production of the model 3 began in the middle of 2017 and was started up slowly. By the end of November 2014, even the majority of CleanTechnica readers, who are usually fairly optimistic on Tesla, had expected that Model 3's production would not start in 2017. This implies that thousands or tens of thousands of buyers of the Model 3 model are involved got their cars earlier than originally expected. In August 2015, Tesla reiterated that first deliveries of the Model 3 would be expected by the end of 2017. It was not until the production of Model 3 began that Tesla's forecasts ran into trouble. Basically, the start-up of Model 3 production was more difficult than expected, but Tesla's much earlier predictions were not met.
It was also worth noting that the plan for Gigafactory 1 should reach battery production in early 2014, supporting 500,000 cars per year by 2020. Tesla seems to be on course. Elon Musk also pointed out in 2014 that he expected Tesla's battery cost to drop to $ 100 / kWh before a decade was over, and this year it was twice stated that Tesla would reach that battery price by the end of this year , Again, it seems Tesla had no problem meeting his early goals and forecasts.
The remainder of this article – after a brief pitch to a CleanTechnica trailer – is the majority of the above-mentioned article from March 2018. Have fun.
I think it was in April 2013 when we first learned that the production of Tesla Model 3 was expected to start in 2017, so we called it " Tesla's fourth production model ". Tesla boss Elon Musk apparently hoped for a release in 2016, but knew calmly and knew 2017 was more likely. His exact answer to some questions from Engadget in the matter: "Hopefully 2016, but I would say no later than 2017."
In August 2013 we realized that the name would probably be Tesla Model E. Tesla has tried to label this name to have fun with the spelling of the possible vehicle series (SEXY). However, Ford had the trademark "Model E" and did not want to pass it on to Tesla, so Tesla later changed the name to Tesla Model (aka Tesla Model 3).
What is interesting for me here is the statement that the car would be in production until 2017, was accurate, although it was long before the model 3.
In addition, the production of the model 3 began, although the whole hype of the model 3 was late. In the timeframe estimated Elon already in 2013 .
I think the estimate for 2017 was reiterated by Elon the following year, but I can not find any reference to it in our archives.  At the end of November 2014, I asked our readers about the 2017 production target for the Tesla Model 3. The target at the time did not predict the number of cars produced by the end of 2017. The majority (62.5%) of our Tesla fans / fans responded that they did not believe the Model 3 would arrive in 2017. (If you missed it, the Model 3 arrived in 2017.)
By the way, in October or early November Jerome Guillen (then Tesla's "Chief Designer", now President of Automotive) said in 2014 that Tesla would be ready by 2020 Wants to produce 500,000 automobiles per year. If people thought the Model 3 would not arrive on time, they also believed 500,000 cars a year by 2020 were unrealistic. However, Tesla later increased the target from 500,000 by 2020 to 500,000 a year by 2018 (in response to massive consumer demand for Model 3). Although this mileage goal was not possible, the goal of 500,000 cars per year by 2020 still seems to be a good option. As a side note: In June 2015, we heard the rumor that the Model 3 actually has a range of 250 miles per kilometer fee, not just the promised 200 miles. That was a big rumor, and we were not sure if we should be upset or skeptical. As it turns out, the EPA range of base model 3 is 220 miles *, and long distance model 3 has a range of 310 miles according to the EPA. (* It is claimed that the reach of the real world is significantly higher. )
In August 2015, these were some of my notes from a quarterly Tesla shareholder report:
- The Model 3 design becomes be announced in the first quarter of 2016. (Woohoo!)
- First deliveries are expected by the end of 2017.
- Basically, the 3 is still on schedule, but at this point is not much to say.
- Tesla believes it is still on track for 500,000 cars a year by 2020, and that it could even go beyond that. 500,000 is based on the production capacity of the Fremont factory, but Tesla can localize production at some locations in three to five years. (I suspect Australia and China are being considered.)
Again – first deliveries were made in 2017. In fact the first deliveries came in the middle middle of 2017, not the end of 2017. However, it is true that the first deliveries to non-staff customers took place at the end of 2017.
Now, I would say that Elon never said that mass production would start immediately. Anyone familiar with starting production of a new vehicle knows that this is not the case. In light of this, the start of production in mid-2017 and the slow increase (with hiccups) by the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 are actually ahead of the timetable we had adopted in 2015.
And again, if you look at our 2014 survey, even bullish Tesla fans did not expect Tesla to bring the Model 3 2017 into production. (Context, Sherlock, context. )
I & # 39; I have another note "by the way" for you. In late 2015, Elon said, "And with the (Tesla) Model 3 and various iterations on this platform, I'm really confident that we can create another 300,000 or 400,000 cars a year." This implies that Elon thought of annual demand and production Model 3 and of Model Y (at least) amount to 300,000 to 400,000 units per year (combined).
Mr. Musk's recent comments on this topic (while not super-current) indicate that he now expects the demand for Model 3 and Model Y to be approximately 500,000 to 1,000,000 units each year, respectively together means 1-2 million units per year.
In other words, Elon's 2015 model 3 timetable was essentially accurate, but drastically underestimated demand compared to today's expectations. (Sound familiar?)
When did the production target come into play for the first time in mid-2017? On May 4, 2016, Elon reluctantly announced the accelerated target. You could say, before he said it, that he did not really want to share the data, but I guess he thought the word would come out anyway (or he was trying too hard to explain how the tofu was made becomes). He revealed that the official Tesla finish for the production launch was July 1, 2017. He emphasized, however, that the goal was for suppliers to try to deliver them in a timely manner. The realistic goal for the actual start of production was late in 2017.
Here's my last summary sentence: "Given the fact that some suppliers will be late, there could be tool / ramp issues. Tesla expects to have the Tesla Model 3 in serious production by the end of 2017 … but the closer the July 2017 level is, the better. "
As it turned out, at the beginning of 2017 everything seemed to be on schedule starting production in July 2017. It was shocking. Most people did not believe it. Hardcore critics still claimed that the production of Model 3 would not start before 2019 or 2020 or so.
No, serial production did not start in the summer or & # 17; but the production of the Model 3 actually started At that time, of course, many skeptics, "very serious analysts", and naysayers have theirs Claim dropped Tesla could not produce the model 3. They gave no one hundred percent certainty that it would take years for the Model 3 to go into production, if it ever was so. They have rejected their claim that Tesla would by no means reach the intended start of production "at the end of 2017". No, the goalposts were postponed.
And in the second half of 2017, it finally happened. Tesla eventually lagged behind some production targets for the Model 3. In particular, bottlenecks in battery production – recently admitted by Elon Musk, were ironic and presumably due to inappropriate complacency – slowed the production ramp of Model 3 from Tesla. Maybe there are other bottlenecks, but we have not really heard anything else yet. With just one critical engine and a bit slower than planned, Tesla has missed some Model 3 production forecasts in recent quarters. This is not fun. It is another sign that Tesla and Elon are not challenging the laws of this universe and are indeed fallible. But it is also a bit extreme, shortsighted and insincere, if you behave so that Tesla always comes too late and late looking for a working clock.
Indeed, bottlenecks in the second half of 2017 did not stop Tesla from achieving Model 3 production in 2017, as it had been aiming since 2013 or earlier. The bottlenecks slowed down the production increase Tesla was aiming for, but they left Tesla more or less where they expected when they predicted the story in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.
Elon is often forced to adopt an optimistic timeline strategy. If you look at what he said in 2013 about the production of Model 3, which starts no later than 2017, the man was accurate. His estimate was over. His timeline (not quite his hopes, but his timeline) was just right.
Who trusted his timeline? Who expected that in 2017 he will actually commission the Model 3? Not many people. And certainly not the people who said that Tesla burns in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and again in 2017 together.
Considering who's more accurate with the timing, it may be time to give Elon some more props and a little less sass.
Related: Tesla Sales Reports
About the Author
Zachary Shahan Zach tries to help society itself to help themselves (and other species). Most of the time he spends here on CleanTechnica as its director and editor-in-chief. He is also the president of Important Media and the director / founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love . Zach is recognized worldwide as an expert in electric vehicles, solar energy and energy storage. He has reported on Cleantech at conferences in India, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the US and Canada.
Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG and ABB. After years of coverage of solar and electric vehicles, he simply has great confidence in these particular companies and feels like a good cleantech company to invest in. He does not offer professional investment advice and does not want to be responsible for losing money. So do not hit the conclusions.