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Crisis-laden central banks brace themselves for turmoil as Italy implodes



Just as central bankers thought they would step out of the business of acute economic stimulus, nervous financial markets are threatening to retrieve some of them.

For the European Central Bank, the recent threat that calls for vigilance is political unrest in Italy, resuscitating the memory of the debt crisis that threatened to put the euro area on hold. The Bank of England's path is made more difficult by Brexit, and central banks in emerging markets are trying to tackle the strong dollar.

The People's Bank of China has recently eased the liquidity conditions for banks, while the Indonesian central bank forecast to raise interest rates at an extraordinary monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve is a bit of an outlier ̵

1; it is already far from its plans to normalize interest rates in the US. June as a virtual certainty. But after this meeting, market turmoil in Italy is clouding the outlook for further interest rate hikes by the Fed on the Federal Funds futures market

More on bond market expectations of the Fed

The problem for policy Uncertainty prevails everywhere that Italy's prospects might drag on until the next election day, possibly in September. This vote, which could be understood as a referendum on the country's European future, could even affect the Fed's plans to raise interest rates in the second half of the year.

"September has become a question mark," said Paul Richards, president of Medley Global Advisors, a market research firm. "Now you have all this geopolitical risk, you and the ECB in October will have to make decisions at the very moment you make Italian elections, and this geopolitical risk will really put September into question."

Right now Turn your eyes to the ECB as political struggles in Italy worsen and populist parties mobilize for another election campaign. The issued notes rise to a level that has not been recorded since 2012.

The euro fell 0.7 percent on Tuesday, dropping one point to a 10-month low. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.4 percent, while the Italian stock index lost almost 3 percent. In the US, the S & P 500 Index fell by a third trading day, losing 1.2 percent.

Just eight weeks ago, Christine Lagarde, chair of the International Monetary Fund, faced a audience in Berlin and said the euro, zone recovery, has finally turned into a sustained and broad upswing. "

" Serious Risk "

Italy is only a few steps away from the" very serious risk of losing irreplaceable trust "," Governor of the Central Bank, Ignazio Visco, warned in one Speech in Rome on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the outgoing ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio recalled that the bar was high for any intervention and stressed that it needed to meet "specific conditions". and advised Italian leaders to read these rules "carefully" again.

"I doubt they can make a ton," said Roberto Perli, Partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC in Washington.

While officials of the Frankfurt-based Monet could have an impact on politics when it comes to avoiding a politically sensitive debate on the future role of a country in the euro area.

Read More: It feels like 2012 again, while European markets are hovering over Italy

If the market raises borrowing costs and exacerbates financial conditions, it could weigh on the entire European economy and reduce confidence and demand. With the euro area economy already cooling, this could influence the ECB's debate on reducing asset purchases that will take place this year. However, the Franche-Comté governor, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, recently said officials will not delay normalization "to address the debt problems of a Member State."

In Turkey, policymakers are trying to regain control of their markets, after months of pressure on the lira and concerns over overheating in the economy, plans to end a much-criticized yield structure. This move follows an extraordinary meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee last week, where interest rates were raised by 300 basis points to 16.5 percent.

Battered Lira

The Turkish Lira faces some of the toughest raids In the emerging markets, Asian central banks are also trying to fight their own currency devaluation.

The Indonesian central bank president has set the course for a second rate hike in two weeks and scheduled a meeting on Wednesday. This is about a month away from the next scheduled transaction, giving Bank Indonesia the opportunity to adjust its policy ahead of the Fed's expected tightening on June 13 . Fed chairman Jerome Powell has denied the claim that the US rate increase is due to a rebellion in emerging markets. Speaking on May 8, he said the Fed is not the main determinant of capital flows worldwide, and that emerging markets are well positioned to steer the shifts in US policy.

He noted, however, that "Risk Mood will be closely monitored as normalization progresses around the world."

At the BOE, Brexit's approach has a major impact on decision-making. Governor Mark Carney last week told economists at an event that Britain's exit from the European Union is a "regime change that has significantly increased the range of potential outcomes for the UK economy, and hence the potential monetary policy pathways."

Euro Stress

Even as central banks around the world are under new pressure, the ECB has been bearing the brunt of the market on Tuesday as Italy could leave the euro, possibly triggering its liquidation.

If government bond yields rise another 100 basis points – after increasing by that amount in the last two and a half weeks alone, the country's debt mountain would, in the words of Bloomberg Economics become too expensive to finance ,

"Everything could go wrong," said billionaire George Soros in a speech in Paris. The world "could be heading for another major financial crisis," he said.

– With the support of Alessandro Speciale, he said, "A volatile greenback, capital flight from emerging economies and imminent existential threat to the European Union are threatening." Alix Steel, Francine Lacqua and James Mayger


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