The struggle for Senate control is getting worse and worse for the Democrats, who just a month ago saw their way to the majority but now look increasingly as if they could lose more seats next year and have a smaller minority.
The Republicans have been polled in several major races since Labor Day. Brett Kavanaugh Brett Michael KavanaughPoll: Palin unpopular in Alaska after jab at Murkowski Fox News Chris Wallace: "Absurd" to say Dems behind The Wandering Caravan arrested New York man because he threatened to kill Senators, the Kavanaugh MORE polarized the electorate, violated Democrats for reelection in states were President Trump is popular
Two states in which Democrats had hopes of drawing big upset – Texas and Tennessee – have in favor of the Republicans emotional. The races in Nevada and Arizona, two other states where the Democrats had hoped to make profits, remain tight, but the Republicans feel more confident about their candidates.
Meanwhile, the tide against Democratic candidates in some states has shifted double digits in 2016.
In North Dakota, Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp Mary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampNursing – Presented by Purdue Pharma – Senate debates highlight fight for pre-existing conditions | Support Grows for Utah Medicaid Expansion Measure | Arkansas Health Official Defends Work Requirements Election Countdown: Small Donor Donations Explode | Russian woman with medium-term disturbances charged takeaways from North Dakota Senate debate | O? Rourke? Definitely? No & # 39; to run until 2020 | The demos hope the Latino voters turn Arizona blue. The Hill's 12:30 Reportage – Trump attacks immigrant "caravan" for Midterms | WHCA criticizes Trump for praising lawmakers, the reporter | attacked Trump takes on Saudis MORE harder has fallen back in the double digits. And in Montana, Sen. Jon Tester Jonathan (Jon) TesterOvernight Energy: Outdoor Dealer Patagonia Makes First Senate Endorsements | EPA withdraws Obama Uranium Meal Rule | NASA boss sees "no reason" to dismiss the UN climate report Trump on the rally "I love you": "I finally heard of a woman" Patagonia makes his first election orders with two Western Democrats MORE ( D), who was still out to win a month ago, has been cramped under the President's attacks.
There is good news for the Democrats in the polls.
Sen. Joe Manchin Joseph (Joe) ManchinFive takeaways from the testy Heller-Rosen debate in Nevada Blankenship advocates exW.Va. GOP senatorial rival, calls him "lying" drug lobbyist The Conservatives funded and dominated the Kavanaugh Affirmation Media Campaign MORE (DW.Va.), The only Democrat who supported Kavanaugh's affirmation has a healthy average lead of 9 points in the polls claims despite Trump in a state that won Trump 2016 a whopping 42 points.
And Sen. Joe Donnelly Joseph (Joe) Simon Donnelly Conservative funded and dominated Kavanaugh's confirmation media campaign Donnelly parodies "Veep" in new campaign ad election Countdown: Florida Senate Fight Continues After Hurricane | Cruz mitigates ObamaCare attacks | GOP ensures that Trump loses suburban women | Latest Senate Surveys | Rep. Dave Brat gets Trump's "total endorsement" | The candidate has the record B MORE (D-Ind.), Who was considered vulnerable for a long time, has an average vote score of 3 points despite a vote against Kavanaugh.
But there are other opportunities for Republicans to increase their 51-49 majority.
Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill Claire Conner McCaskillOvernight Health Care – Presented by Purdue Pharma Existing Conditions | Support Grows for Utah Medicaid Expansion Measure | McCannell defends work demands McCaskill campaign says "internally", the campaign had filmed access to voter data McConnell defends Trump-backed lawsuit against ObamaCare MORE 's re-election race against Republican Josh Hawley remains tight as a wire, while Sen. Bill Nelson Clarence (Bill) William NelsonElection Countdown: Donations from Small Donors Explode | Russian woman with medium-term disturbances charged takeaways from North Dakota Senate debate | O? Rourke? Definitely? No & # 39; to run until 2020 | Dems hope that Latino voters Arizona blue Election Countdown: Florida Senate fight goes to Hurricane | Cruz mitigates ObamaCare attacks | GOP ensures that Trump loses suburban women | Latest Senate Surveys | Rep. Dave Brat gets Trump's "total endorsement" | Candidates raise the record B Florida, which extends the early voting in the districts hit by Hurricane MORE (D-Fla.), Has drawn a tough challenger in Gov Rick Scott (R).
In New Jersey, Sen. Bob Menendez Robert (Bob) Menendez Trump lowers the refugee target to 30,000, he must meet him Blaise Senate, not FBI, for Kavanaugh travesty protesters crowd tech companies, 3D MORE (D) is ahead in polls but Republicans still think they have a chance to exert an excitement.
Democrats argue that they have an advantage in health care, the number one voter.
They seek to capitalize on recent comments by the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Addison Mitchell McConnell Megan calls Russian attacks on her father the "highest compliment" to her family Senate is & # 39; neck & neck & # 39; Nikki Haley powerfully disproves Trump MORE (R-KY.), Who blamed Social Security and Medicare for the country's deficit problems and said Republicans may take another shot on ObamaCare's suspension next year.
"Last week, FOX News, CBS, and Washington Post ABC polls confirmed that the top issue of this election was health care, and then Mitch McConnell reminded voters that he would abolish coverage for pre-existing conditions and target Medicare and Social Security, "said David Bergstein, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"That's not what Republicans want to talk about, and we appreciate his help, which reminds voters exactly what's on the ballot," he added.
Despite the focus of the Democrats on health care is their top GOP goal, Nevada Sen. Dean Heller Dean Arthur HellerFive take-aways by testy Heller-Rosen debate in Nevada Heller complains about media in The Senate Debate: "You'll see how they handle Kanye West's Election Countdown: Small Donor Donations Explode | Russian woman with medium-term disruptions charged Takeaways from North Dakota Senate Debate | O & Rourke will definitely be no & # 39; Running until 2020 | Dems hoping that Latino voters turn Arizona blue MORE has remained stable in polls despite his vote to lift ObamaCare's FiveThirtyEight.com gives him a 56 percent chance of re-election.
Sen Ted Cruz Rafael (Ted) Edward Cruz Democrats Slipping in the Senate Rally O & Rourkes Rise Raising Hopes for Texas Democrat Down Countdown: Donations from Small Donors Explode | Russian Woman with medium-term disturbances charged takeaways from North Dakota Senate Debate | O? Rourke? Definitely? No & # 39; to run until 2020 | The hopes of the Latino voters on Arizona's BLUE MORE (R), who has increased his lead over Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), says the Kavanaugh debate gives him and other GOP candidates helped.
"Absolutely," said Cruz. "I think the behavior of the Democrats in the Kavanaugh hearing was appalling, and I think that many Texans were deeply worried about the partisan games and the political circus, where they denigrated Judge Kavanaugh and his family to earn political points."
The race between Cruz and O & Rourke was closest in early September, when Cruz was just three points clear in the Real Clear Politics poll. But as the fight for Kavanaugh intensified, he saw his lead grow to five and now seven points, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com.
In Tennessee, the Real Clear Politics praises trend lines of Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen and the Republicans Marsha Blackburn Marsha BlackburnKaty Perry praises Taylor Swift for plunging into politics Celebrities are not kingmakers, but they are allowed to be tiebreakers Election Countdown: Florida Senate Fight Continues After Hurricane | Cruz mitigates ObamaCare attacks | GOP ensures that Trump loses suburban women | Latest Senate Surveys | Rep. Dave Brat gets Trump's "total endorsement" | Candidate candidates raise record B MORE (Tenn.), Which was exceeded in late September when the Supreme Court's vicious fight caught the attention of the nation.
Blackburn now has a lead of six and a half points in the average Real Clear Politics competition, a significant improvement over much of late spring and summer, when it averaged five points.
"You probably can thank Brett Kavanaugh for that.Everyone I talked to was in the bubble or maybe even for Bredesen – and I'm talking about republicans – I have not spoken to Kavanaugh with one of them who does not say that I vote for Marsha, "said Chip Saltsman, a Tennessee-based GOP strategist.
Bredesen tried earlier this month to mitigate the impact of the Kavanaugh debate by announcing his support for the candidate, which resulted in some of his volunteers quitting.
Democrats have not written off the contest at all.
A Democratic strategist in the US Senate Senate argued that recent polls show that Bredesen is in deadlock with Blackburn. A poll by Vanderbilt University, released Thursday, showed him 44 percent to 43 percent. And a poll released by Reuters on Wednesday showed that Blackburn was only 3 points short of the survey's margin of error. But a New York Times / Siena College poll, conducted around the same time, gave Blackburn a 14-point lead.
The McCaskill Howley race is tight, but the Republicans also believe the Kavanaugh fight has helped them in that condition.
The Real Clear Politics trend lines crossed when McCaskill was in the lead by mid-August, averaging recent polls. Last month's CNN poll showed them three points ahead, and a FOX News poll showed them even with Hawley.
In Montana, a grave survey by June Tester showed with an eight-point lead during a follow-up Gravis survey in late September, he had shrunk to four points.
Montana is also a key target of President Trump, who made his third trip to the state on Thursday to hold a rally for Testers opponent Matt Rosendale.
Rosendale has attempted to exploit voter anger over Kavanaugh by making comparisons of how he was treated by Democrats in the Senate Judiciary Committee and how Trump's decision to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, Ronny Jackson, The retired tester led the opposition to him.
In North Dakota, Heitkamp has seen their poll numbers drop since Labor Day.
A Fox News poll from early September showed her sluggish Republican representative. Kevin Cramer Kevin John Cramer Overnight Health Care – Presented by Purdue Pharma Senate Debates Mark Fight Over Pre-existing Conditions | Support Grows for Utah Medicaid Expansion Measure | Arkansas Health Official Defends Work Requirements Election Countdown: Small Donor Donations Explode | Russian woman with medium-term disturbances charged takeaways from North Dakota Senate debate | O? Rourke? Definitely? No & # 39; to run until 2020 | The demos hope the Latino voters turn Arizona blue. The Hill's 12:30 Reportage – Trump attacks immigrant "caravan" for Midterms | WHCA criticizes Trump for praising lawmakers, the reporter | Trump takes a harder line at Saudis MORE (ND) At four points, but an NBC poll that was conducted later in the month, Cramer showed 10 points and a follow-up Fox poll on October 3 Kramer a 12-point lead.
Chairman of the Republican Conference John Thune John Randolph ThuneBy a national commitment to youth sports, we can break the obesity cycle Florida policy plays in disaster relief debate GOP Chairman: FEMA has enough money for Hurricane Michael MORE  (R), who comes from neighboring South Dakota, says he feels good about knocking off Heitkamp, though he recognizes she is a good retail fighter.
"She's a good retail fighter," he said, but added that Cramer's race was about to be lost because "it was somehow nationalized."
A Washington Senate Republican strategist said Kavanaugh has polarized the electorate A result of a moderate GOP and independent voters is less likely to cross-talk and cast ballots for incumbent Democrats.
"It improved the prospects of Republicans across the board," said the strategist. "It polarized the electorate in red states and that is the worst thing for Democrats who rely on a handful of Republican voters to cross the corridor and support them to get over the top.
In Arizona, the Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema tries to distance himself from how her fellow Democrats treated Kavanaugh in the Senate.
"I was incredibly disappointed with the way the Senate behaved during this hearing. It was a circus, "she said during a debate on Monday." I was disappointed with the way the Senate handled it. It felt like it was denigrating the work of the Senate.