Recently, Elon Musk suggested in a recent analysis that nearly a quarter of the more than 400,000 advance reservations for Tesla's Model 3 battery sedan had been canceled.
"No idea where the BS is coming from," Musk said in a tweet on Thursday night. If anything, he boasted the automaker had received 5,000 new orders for the Model 3 the week before, as well as 2,000 orders for the older S and X models.
A spokesperson for Tesla told CNBC that, to June 31: "The remaining net reserves for Model 3 at the end of the second quarter were still at approximately 420,000, though we have delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date."
For those who now convert reservations into actual orders, as well as new customers, the spokesman added, delivery will come in "about one to three months". Meanwhile, three people booking early told CNBC that they've heard of Tesla in recent weeks, stating that they might even accept the delivery earlier than that.
But the numbers do not necessarily add up. As the second quarter ended, Musk announced that the carmaker had reached its revised goal producing 5,000 Model 3 sedans in the last week of June. Tesla has set itself the goal of reaching 6,000 a week within the next month and is aiming for the longer term at its original target of around 8,000 a week. That was the number Musk had previously announced before heading south at the assembly plant in Fremont, California.
Even with this highest number, Tesla should take more than a full year to meet existing concerns, provided that everyone succeeds in commanding them. And that does not take into account brand-new orders, as the 5,000 Musk claims to have received last week.
In other words, if Tesla can bring you a Model 3 in as little as three months, it either suggests more. Reservation holders have resigned than they claim – or that a high percentage has so far renounced these reservations in actual orders convert.