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Does the human life span really have a limit?



The limits of human existence may not be as limited as we have long thought.

The death risk of a person slows down and even plateaus over 105 years, a new study reports, formerly proving challenging research results, there is a limit beyond which the human lifespan can not be extended.

Longevity pioneers happy enough to pass it by Dangerous 70s, 80s and 90s could possibly live far into their 1

10s if luck stays on their side, said senior author Kenneth Wachter, professor of demographics and statistics at the University of California, Berkeley.

"Our data tells us that there is no firm limit to the human lifespan that is still in sight," Wachter said. "Very few of us will reach these ages, but the fact that mortality rates are not getting worse and more and more suggestive could well make some progress in improving survival after the age of 80 to 90 years. A valuable, encouraging discovery . "

More specifically, the study showed that people over the age of 110 had the same survival rates as those aged 105-109 years – a 50/50 chance to die and expect to die within a year. English: bio-pro. English:. This plateau contradicts the way in which the risk of death increases with age from the age of 40, Wachter

"If the mortality rate With the increase from 40 to 40 goes up At the age of 90, there would then be a strong barrier to progress in extreme times – a sharply diminishing return to behavioral change or new medical care domestic progress, "Wachter said. "The fact that these rates eventually balance out gives hope that these advances have more leeway."

The oldest known person is Jeanne Calment from France, who died in 1997 at the age of 122 years.

There is continuing debate over whether there is a maximum human lifespan.

Last year, researchers at McGill University in Montreal published a report that challenges earlier claims that the human lifespan is around 115 years. The statistics are not good enough to say that you can not live much longer, based on the data we have, "said McGill Chief Development Officer Siegfried Hekimi," It's just not good enough, to prove this. "

To further investigate this, Wachter and his colleagues tracked the deaths of nearly 4,000 Italians who were 105 years old between 2009 and 2015.

Investigators found that the chances of survival are declining steadily, for example, when a person enters middle age and seniority.

For example, Italian women who reached the age of 90 had a 15 percent probability within one year and an expected six-year life span.

But if they made it to 95, their chances of dying within a year increased to 24 percent and their life expectancy dropped to 3.7 years.

You might think that these opportunities would increase indefinitely as people age to an undefined vanishing point.

That did not happen. The chances of survival rose instead, after people had crossed the limit of 105.

"The risk of death is very high at 105, but next year it will not be higher," Hekimi said of the new study. "Every year you have the same chance of dying, and every year you can be the one who wins the toss."

This plateau is likely to occur because of evolutionary selection and the influence of good genes and healthy life choices, Wachter

said, "If you look at a group of older people who are all the same age, some are quite fragile and some are robust, there is a big difference in frailty, "Wachter said.

"People who go to college, 50th reunion, you just look around, and some people climb mountains, while some people walk with sticks, now 15 to 20 years later, the people who were already weak are those who probably died, "he said.

Not enough study participants

So far, looking at the genetics of long-lived people has provided unbearably few clues for the extension of the overall human life span, Hekimi said.

There are just too few people making it to these extreme ancient times, and the genes that seem to work in their favor vary from place to place, Hekimi said. For example, genes that seem to support a prolonged lifespan in Okinawa are not the same as in England.

But this study shows that there is a good chance that the survival plateau will extend earlier into the average human lifespan, more likely that more people will survive in their 100s, Wachter said.

"It gives us good hope because there are now many ways to look at these bad variants as they are in populations today and to try to understand the interaction of these genetic variants with potential drugs and various health challenges", Wachter said.

"This fundamental theory could help us to inform medical advances and public health advances in 10 to 15 years, while genetic research continues," he said.

Hekimi agreed.

"Given that our life expectancy continues to rise, the plateauing will begin sooner and earlier," he said.

The new study was published in the June 29 issue of the journal Science .


Further research:
The maximum human lifespan has already been reached, the researchers conclude

Further information:
"The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demographics of Longevity Pioneers" Science (2018). science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi … 1126 / science.aat3119

Sources in Journal:
science


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