But probably not really, at least according to a new poll conducted for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and released on Monday. In it, Trump is double digits behind former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders holds a 49% to 40% lead over the incumbent Far from Trump's near miss in Minnesota in 2016, when he lost over 44,000 votes in more than 2.6 million votes – one of the country's narrowest margins.
Currently it is October 2019, not November 2020. And as Strib's J. Patrick Coolican noted in a recent article, Trump's 2020 campaign is already spending a lot of money in a state that has two things in favor of Trump : 1
) A large number of white working-class voters and 2) a booming economy.
Nonetheless, these poll numbers must dampen the much-publicized hopes of the Trump campaign to include Minnesota in their column. The same Star Tribune poll showed that Trump's work permit was only 40%. This is a very difficult starting point for starting a successful campaign.
In fact, Trump does not have to win Minnesota to be reelected. He did not win the state in 2016 and won the Electoral College relatively easily.
The bigger problem for Trump is whether his numbers in Minnesota point to a broader weakness in the industrial Midwest – Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin – – where he won the 2016 elections. Trump's coverage in these states is at least as good as that of the Star Tribune survey at least last year. If this trend continues, its path to a second term will narrow considerably.
The Point : Trump's 2020 election card is already pretty tight. If its Minnesota numbers indicate a broader softening in the region, pay attention.