21st June (UPI) – The earthquake-generating gulch releases a lot of stored energy that resonates violently over the earth's crust. Earthquakes also generate new loads.
New research suggests that the accumulation of stress caused by historical earthquakes might explain why and where the next seismic event occurs.
In earthquake-prone areas, larger seismic events seem to occur by chance. However, new findings published in the journal Nature Communications this week suggest that the static stress stored in a fault plane prior to fracture, the so-called Coulomb bias, can explain historical and modern earthquake patterns.
So far Most models assume that the preload is zero. However, the authors of the new study assume that such an assumption is flawed. The burden of a brittle fault surface has accumulated over centuries to millennia due to tectonic stress and earthquakes in the past. Through their analysis, scientists showed that coulombic pre-stress should not be ignored.
Researchers used written records of historical earthquake damage, modern seismic data, and state-of-the-art models to show that the earthquake-related positive pressures almost always occur along pre-break faults.
"Zoe Mildon, a lecturer in Earth Sciences at the University of Plymouth, said in a press release that the forces and tensions in the surrounding rocks are changing following a major earthquake." It is often believed that the next mistake is one closest earthquake is the next fracture. "
The recent study has shown that this is rarely the case, according to Mildon and her colleagues, the current models for earthquake prediction are too dependent on the Coulomb stress transfer theory (CST) which describes the transfer of stress to surrounding material after a seismic event.
The new study suggests that cumulative stress or historical stress within error systems may be a better predictor of future earthquakes.
"Our model adds the stresses of many earthquakes and shows that in most cases it is positively stressed at break lines when they burst," Mildon said. "It is a gradual change in the modeling of CST and shows that this is an ignored but crucial factor when it comes to explaining the tripping of earthquakes." As researchers tracked the location of earthquakes in the region over the last 700 years, they found that 97 percent of the errors before break were completely or partially stressed ̵
"Earthquakes are extremely destructive to both humans and property, and the Holy Grail of earthquake research would be to predict where and when they will happen," Mildon said. "We are still a long way from this, and indeed, it may never be possible to accurately predict the location, time, and magnitude of future earthquakes, but our research could be a starting point for making better predictions of which fault lines might be more susceptible to previous shocks be. "