(This is the 14th edition of our democrat power rating, which is likely to receive the party's nomination for president in 2020.)
There's also the fact that Warren is a woman and Sanders a woman, well, not , When Warren asks, "Who is the most liberal of them all?" With a draw, the female voters, who arrive in droves to force the Democrats back into the majority of the House of Representatives in 2018, could be behind their candidacy for 2020, which could be crucial.
Below is our ranking of the 10 candidates who will most likely run for Democratic presidential candidates as of today. We update these rankings every two weeks. So, if your favorite candidate is not on the list or not as high as you think, stay tuned. That's politics! Things change!
0th Julián Castro
: Take a walk through the dozen baker candidates we did not list on this list. Now try to find one more credible than Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio. Castro is Latino and is committed to a message that focuses heavily on the fight against President Donald Trump's immigration policy. And Castro is averaging 1% for national polls for 2020 – which is not much, but more than the people who could take his place at # 10.
. 9 Andrew Yang: Yang's move to ninth place can be considered in two ways. The first is that Yang scores better than expected and consistently scores at least 1% in national surveys. It even reached 2% in a Fox News survey last weekend (and 2% will be the key to the September debates as skills tighten significantly). The other way to see Yang's rise is that the majority of so-called conventional candidates in a field of more than 20 are bad.
. 8 Amy Klobuchar : The Senator from Minnesota remains virtually a foreigner in the national primary election – with a 1% share. It is in slightly better shape in Iowa, where it is averaging just over 3%, according to the Real Clear Politics survey average. Klobuchar would be wise to focus almost exclusively on the Hawkeye state, where their roots in the Midwest could theoretically help them gain much-needed traction.
. 7 Cory Booker: If there's a candidate we may underestimate, it's that guy. Booker always offers some of the best reviews in the field. For example, its favorable to unfavorable ratio was actually better than Warren's in a recent Monmouth University survey of likely Democratic citizens of Nevada. Despite its popularity, Booker was the first choice of only 2% of voters. The big question is whether Booker can express his goodwill among the Democratic voters in votes.
. 6 Beto O & Rourke : We weighed down the former Texas Congressman under Booker, but in the end we held him here because he's a little better off in national and early polls than the New Jersey senator , But man, that's all the good news we could find for O'Rourke, who still looks totally lost as a candidate. Conducting the debate on the first night and standing on a stage with fewer "star" candidates feels like an opportunity for a candidate who desperately needs it.
. 5 Pete Buttigieg: The Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, received some of the best news of his campaign since our last ranking. He earned 14% from the likely Democratic Iowa citizens in the CNN / Des Moines Register / Mediacom survey. That was good enough to secure Sanders and Warren in second place. In addition, Buttigieg looks like he's going to raise a lot of money this quarter, which will fuel his campaign and his perceptions. The problem for him is still the inability to win non-white voters. He picked up 0% of them in a recently voted poll of Democratic voters at Quinnipiac University in Florida.
. 4 Kamala Harris : The California Senator received the draw she wanted – on stage on the second night, with most of the candidates standing in front of her or running alongside her in the race. This should make it easier for the voters to compare, and the Harris people must like the dynamics of an African-American woman discussing three white men (Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden) against whom she fights for the nomination.
. 3 Bernie Sanders: The good news for the Vermont Senator is that he is still in second place in most national polls. The bad news is in the trend lines. Sanders has dropped significantly since March. In some early surveys, he either barely occupies second or third place (behind Warren). The one thing Sanders definitely wants to do for him is that he has a core of followers who will never leave him. The question is how big this core is. The fact that Sanders is only 15% suggests that the core may be smaller than Sanders would like.
. 2 Elizabeth Warren : The (re) rise of Warren speaks for the marathon-like nature of a presidential campaign. The Massachusetts senator was the first major runner-up candidate for 2020 last year, and had a very weak start – driven by her failed attempts to challenge questions about Native American heritage. But Warren kept rolling out policy papers, visiting early states and meeting with voters. And it has paid off. She is currently the most dynamic candidate in the field – and that's a good place to be.
. 1 Joe Biden: The case that Biden is numero uno is simple. He conducts surveys in the states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. He has more supporters than anyone else and will raise a lot of money this quarter. The big problem for Biden is the time. There is a ton left in the main season. His projections in the polls (usually 15 to 20 points) are not tiny, but not insurmountable. Biden will enter the debate next week. How will he appear to the viewers compared to the other candidates? Voters are worried about nominating someone over 75, as Biden is.