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Elizabeth Warren was able to win the Democratic nomination and beat Trump



T During the weekend, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Officially launched her presidential campaign. Previously, she had been on the track in Iowa, trying to bolster her presence with videos about beer and Acela riding.

Some Conservatives quickly named her as a candidate, not least because she is very liberal and America, we are told, is a "center-right" country. Others have pointed to their "improbability", to which Warren responded by saying that "unlikely" is political code for "female."

But Warren & # 39; critics, of which I'm one, should not assume so quickly that they will lose either the primary or, if nominated, the general elections. Warren is not our thing, but she has many strengths as a candidate, at least if you see the voters as they are and not as you wish.

Let's anticipate that the rules that have been pre-selected in politics since Donald Trump won the presidency, these rules now disappear from the window. People who you believe have no hope of winning elections can actually win. This is particularly the case if these people can get a ton of free TV coverage daily by holding tweets, out-there statements (via guidelines or anything else), or massive rallies for which people put up hours in the rain or snow or extreme heat.

In 201

6, this was Trump and in 2020 it could easily be Warren. Their Iowa "kickoff" was well covered by cable news, particularly those important in the MSNBC Democratic primary. Her Instagram video, in which she turned down a beer, also received a lot of free media. The Acela video too, even though half of it, like at least half of Trump's free media, was negative. Time will tell if she's really as skilled as Trump when she gets the cable and the transmitter to give her literally several hours of unpaid air time per day. But so far does she look like she is. It's not like Warren did not get any TV attention anyway.

Warren does not participate in the contest as a completely unknown person who needs to rebuild her name ID from scratch.

Do not forget, in 2004 she appeared on "Oprah" to talk about personal finance.

Previously, she was a fixture at campaign events across the country. Alison Lundergan-Grimes and Natalie Tennant, who each ran in non-liberal Kentucky and West Virginia, calculated in 2014 that a Warren appearance is not a liability for them. In 2018, Warren of Democrat Andrew Janz, running against Rep. Devin Nunes in a deep red district, was considered a potential killer by Californian GOP strategists. Nunes, however, won only 52.7 percent of the vote.

All this represents their tremendous popularity among the progressive activists known earlier as "Netroots," whose support, while not a candidacy or break, certainly helps, especially when it comes to winning primaries.

Warren will also be a fundraising powerhouse. Last year, she stood for re-election in a race that she certainly wanted to win. Nonetheless, according to OpenSecrets.org, it raised around $ 35 million. Only $ 8.3 million of it came from donors who donated more than $ 200. By the end of the first quarter of 2018, nearly 99 percent of their donations were under $ 100; 82 percent were for $ 25 or less. Warren reportedly accumulated around $ 300,000 in the first 15 hours of the announcement of their Presidential Inquiry.

Now she is early in the presidential race. This means that not only does it have a huge pool of small donors, but it also has the advantage of having many, many months between the Iowa caucuses, where they will pocket their $ 5 or $ 10. This is an advantage that many other Democrats do not have, either because they lack the fundraising strength or they will go into the race later.

Contrary to what Warren fans claim, there is not much evidence supporting the thesis that money buys in politics. But it can buy ads and more of these cherished cable news and social media offerings just to make sure the public generally does not see enough of Warren as a matter of un-bought, free media coverage, they'll once advertise their operation is in full swing.

But what about the criticism that Warren is too liberal? In the ideological spectrum, it is indeed far left. Their positions on issues such as trade, Afghanistan withdrawal and drug prices, however, hardly differ from Trump's position. As they do so, Warren is more trade-critical and campaigns for Big Pharma when Trump has shown up in office.

October 2018 According to Pew, only 35 percent of the public believe that the US is "largely successful" in Afghanistan. Not even 50 percent of Republicans, generally the Hawkier party, apparently believe we are winning.

The December poll by the advocacy group Patients for Affordable Drugs Now suggests that the general public agree with measures aimed at reducing drug prices that are below the free market. These measures seem to favor Trump and Warren.

The skepticism of the trade is indeed a potential hurdle for Warren in the democratic preschool. According to the Brookings Institution's Metropolitan Policy Program, the counties that went to Hillary Clinton in 2016 accounted for about 60 percent of all US exports. Pew data from 2018 shows that 67 percent of Democrats and Democrats have a positive attitude to free trade agreements between the United States and other countries. Around 63 percent oppose raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. According to June Quinnipiac polls, the Republicans are the only population group that supports tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

However, this underlines the point: to the extent that voters vote on issues, a not uncontroversial proposal, Warren has the potential to take the votes of trade-critical independents and even dissatisfied or disillusioned Republicans (heck, as recently said (She was a Republican by Mediaite until 1996.) By 2020, many of them will not be libertarian or neo-conservative "Never Trumpers," but people who have enthusiastically supported Trump in 2016 because they like economic populism, but Warren is actually not really crazy on literally anything. "While MEPs Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, DN.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., are feeling disappointed at this time, especially when it comes to an economic slump.

., Advocating a very costly and impossible to achieve "green new deal" to our eco To improve Logical Footprint, Warren demands that listed companies disclose their carbon footprint. While there are constitutional and conceptual shortcomings in their government ethics package, voters rarely understand the nuances of these things and tend to regard the government as corrupt. This is especially true for a presidential cycle, after Crooked Hillary has been regularly called in the eyes of many Democratic voters and Trump, who himself has ethical scandals, was elected.

It would be nice if Conservatives could just laugh at Warren's candidacy, because she really has unsightly notions about a number of things. Perhaps her worst concern was a consumer protection office that she wanted to be irresponsible to elected officials. But the truth is, she could win the Democratic nomination and parliamentary elections in 2020.

Liz Mair ( @LizMair ) is the founder, owner and president of Mair Strategies LLC and a political adviser to the GOP. She is a long-time critic of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.


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