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Expect further 1,000-point turns for the Dow 2019: Mohamed El-Erian



Goodbye 2018. Do not let it knock you out … yadda yadda

The screens reflect a bit of green this morning, though in a year since the financial crisis for some major indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average the worst should be, looks little

DJIA, -0.33%

and the S & P 500

SPX, -0.12%

To properly immerse, our last call of the day for the year comes from the Alliance's senior economic adviser, Mohamed El-Erian.

In a interview with Fox News on Sunday, El-Erian said he sees no recession in the US, but believes that investors could see more of a 1,000-point surge for the Dow as a wild day last week , "This is our new reality for a while," El-Erian said, explaining his reasons why this might be the case.

These are: 1) Unease over uncertainty for Europe and China's growth, the latter which just reported factory activity in December at a two-year low. 2) Central banks like the Fed buy "no more securities" and keep interest rates low. 3) Wall Street is no longer a BTFD but "any rally for sale" – something exaggerated by the computer trade.

However, the market needs to focus on one thing, namely that the US needs a massive market crash to push us into recession, "but the situation will slow if not built on the pro-growth policy." He expects the economy to grow by 2.5% to 3% in 2019. More pessimistic is Goldman, who is slashing growth prospects for the US from 2.4% next year to 2% but still sees a low risk of recession.

As difficult as 2018 may have been for some investors, it is always important to remember that lessons are held in a great or terrible year.

The trader Stefan Cheplick, who had been investing in times of financial crisis, shared 50 things he learned in a blog post in 2018, and more than a couple is emerging. Take 9th place, notably with a profit in the first quarter around the corner and a lot of jitter when it concerns these. "Quarterly earnings moves are noise. Avoid them at all costs. The shares move within a few seconds of a profit report by 10%, 15%, 20%. Never play in this game, "he says.

Read: That's why stock market bulls set to stabilize the ship in January.

At # 18, he says margins are now his preferred Measure that replaces free cash flow. "Margin control is power, it's a company you want," he writes, declining to buy back with # 20, saying it's useless. "They want to find businesses who have not yet announced a buy-back but are able to do so Sell your shares back to them. "

Here's No. 34:" I used to think that politics does not matter when it comes to stocks. I was wrong, "says Cheplick.

What he learned in 2017 now resonates." The three-day rule will save you forever – never buy a stock after a big fall, always wait at least three days He says, this could be a piece of advice again proving useful in 2019 when a turbulent holiday trading season is a foretaste of what is to come.

Feliz año nuevo of us all at Need to Know.

The market

Dow

YMH9, + 0.92%

S & P 500

ESH9, + 0.79%

and Nasdaq

NQH9, + 0.96%

Futures are higher. This is after a not so great session for Dow, S & P 500 and Nasdaq

COMP, + 0.08%

on Friday, even though it looked better on a weekly basis.

More information about Market Snapshot

Crude

USA: CLU8

stands, but is facing the worst year since 2015. The dollar

DXY, -0.22%

and gold

USA: GCU8

are pretty stable.

It is everywhere in Europe where the Stoxx 600

SXXP, + 0.46%

posted the worst return since 2008. The Hang Seng

HSI, + 1.34%

was one of the few markets in Asia that reached 1.3%, but lost just under 14%.

The Chart

The S & P 500 is "far from the market," says Chart of the Day by Otavio "Tavi" Cosa, global macro analyst at Crescat Capital. Here is his tweet that shows that the US economic cycle has peaked and is therefore a big downside for equities.

The stat


Getty Images

2008 – This is a marker for this How stocks around the world have done this year. The list of the worst results is long and usually ends in 2008, the culmination of the global financial crisis.

For example, the Dow faced a loss of 1,656.82 points or 6.7% for the largest one-year point and percentage decline since 2008 at its meeting on Friday, 2018. It's also the worst year for the S & P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, the Stoxx Europe 600, the Nikkei

NIK, -0.31%

and the Shanghai Composite

SHCOMP, + 0.44%

The Hustle

"Great progress is being made," Trump tweeted on Saturday, but some fear he might surprise the markets. Meanwhile, the White House is urging China to hammer out solid plans after it promised, after the heads of state and government of the two countries met in Buenos Aires a month ago.

At the closure, talks broke down on the weekend when lawmakers came home for the holidays. In the meantime, Trump says there will be no salary increases for federal employees in 2019.

Tokyo authorities will arrest ex-Nissan

7201, -0.51%

Chairman Carlos Ghosn another 10 days.

Researchers have developed fingerprints that they claim could release a third of smartphones.

With his fate in the balance sheet, bankrupt retailer Sears

SHLDQ, -2.24%

will close 80 stores by the end of March 2019.

Steve Eisman, best known for his "Big Short" on the US housing market in 2007-2008, sees a 50% chance of a "tough" Brexit. He shortens major retailers and banks in the UK, such as Marks & Spencer, Royal Bank of Scotland

RBS, + 2.84%

RBS, + 1.21%

and Lloyds

LLOY, + 1.25%

LYG, + 2.00%

The Economy

The quality this week is not the quantity. Highlights include weekly jobless claims and the ISM index for industrial production, as well as non-farm payrolls on Friday, although shutting down might disturb some data. The Economist says that these are the best young economists of the decade.

Random reads

Great, exhausting: words to describe in 2018

Putin for POTUS in the holiday message: "Are we talking."

These Iranian migrants have been desperately trying to cross the English Channel.

Louis CK takes over heat when audio is leaked to a new routine

Terrorist attack means increased security for New Year's Eve in Paris and NYC also takes no risk

Time for French executives to dodge taxes 19659002] More Force and Death for Journalists in 2018 Than Any Other Recorded Year

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