The second data point is always more interesting than the first one.
If a player's statistics line for week 2 does not match its week 1 output, you need to understand why this is important. Rookies T.J. Hockenson and Josh Jacobs went from big debuts to quieter performances in week 2. What are the expectations for the rest of the season?
If Week 2 supports Week 1, it may well be the beginning of a trend – Lamar Jackson should be almost at the top of the rest of the season's Quarterback Ranking. However, this is not guaranteed as it is still a very small sample ̵
1; T.Y. Hilton and Derrick Henry each supported two touchdown appearances in Week 1 with another in Week 2, but the pace of their crimes is cause for concern.
We also had injuries, including significant at two franchised quarterbacks and former Super Bowl champions, which are not only of significance to those who designed Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger, but also to the players involved in both crimes in the right position.
There's a lot to clarify, so let's go through the game by game. For week 2, I refer generously to the article of the week 1. This should not be a victory round or condemnation, but a reference point, which allows us to cover more ground than repeat points.
Data were typically created courtesy of Pro Football Reference, RotoViz, the RotoGrinders Premium Usage App, airyards.com. Do not hesitate to contact me on Twitter @YardsPerGretch if you have any questions about what I've covered or express my thoughts on something I glossed over. This is one of my favorite feedbacks because I have often missed it. Call the followers who have noticed that Rashard Higgins' injury and Devonta Freeman's fumble have cost him some snapshots in Week One. Within the 10 yard line of the opponent. HVT – High-Value Touches : To run back, for all receptions and all touches within the 10 yard line. TRAP – Trivial Rush Attempt Percentage : For running backs, the percentage of all non-touch touches. In the last five seasons 75.1% of the touches were not of high value. If a single player has a higher quota, his workload is hollow. A lower score indicates a better chance for the success of Fantasy. WOPR – Weighted Chance Assessment : This metric compiled by Josh Hermsmeyer offsets team share of goals and team share of air craft. Since a player's WOPR is a part of the total opportunity of his team, it is important to consider the team volume as an additional context. RACR – Receiver Air Conversion Ratio: RACR, also created by Hermsmeyer, is calculated as Total Receptions divided by Total Air Houses. Similar to yards per receipt or yards per target, but instead per air yard.
Buccaneer 20 – Panther 14
Thursday Night Football had a few stars, but many more types. While the over / under before the kickoff on Thursday fell, it still closed at 48 points. Six field goals held two touchdowns behind this number.
Let's start with the passing game of the Buccaneers, in which Mike Evans and O.J. Howard was tempered and disappointed, but Chris Godwin looked like a star again in the slot role of Bruce Arians. There is not much to say about Godwin, who for two weeks transforms a strong opportunity into a whole lot of fantasy scoring.
Evans is not, but he also entered the season with an illness that is unlikely to be completely over in a short week. In particular, Evans has seen a good volume and was simply inefficient. For two weeks, Evans and Godwin have nearly identical WOPRs, with Godwin having the higher target share, but Evans sees far more airfields. This is essentially what we expected. The difference in production is simply efficiency.
Evans' RACR over two weeks is .38, meaning that he has converted 38% of his air guard into receiving farms. His career RACR is 0.57 and he has never been below 0.5 in one season. After two weeks, the volume is there, but it was at least 30 or 40 meters away from its typical efficiency. He also failed to find the end zone, even though he was close to finishing in Week 2. He'll be fine when he gets healthier.
O. J. Howard is a bigger concern. Howard saw no targets in Week 2, though his catch was nullified by a questionable offensive pass interference. Interestingly, Howard's role was expanded in week 2. In week one, Howard drove a route with only 55% of the dropbacks of Jameis Winston, in week 2 he was a nice 69%. In the meantime, Cameron Brate was 48% in Week 1. Howard fell to 31% in Week 2, however.
Howard was not an isolated case as he completed both a zero-catch and a one-game play in 10 games last year, and was still in the top six in both the PPR and the non-PPR Points per game. Even with Brate, Howard should still have some Splash Efficiency games.
Howard just has not seen many downfield goals as his aDOT was well into double digits in both 2017 and 2018, but his aDOT in the early 2019 season was 5.8. A brief close to Cameron Brate's first game after the two-minute warning in the first half is a good example of the goals that have not yet been achieved.
The defense had a single high level of security and it did not appear anywhere near Howard's seam line, which could mean a landing of 25 yards. Winston decided to fire the ball on Brate below to make the first descent. The key is that Howard still drives the downfield tracks that have helped him to be so efficient in his limited-volume career.
Peyton Barber looked exhilarated in some games and raced on 12 of his carry rounds, including his touchdown run, between 12 and 16 yards. He had only one valuable grade with a total of 24 touches and even with these Splash games the average was still 3.6 meters per carry. Ronald Jones seems to be buried again; he saw only four rush attempts and barely played. Dare Ogunbowale played again on the third descent. Barber does not manage to play over 20 in most weeks, and as a player has no passing role or explosion, so he is not a recommended game for the future. Jones will be back in the long run until we see him on the field, but he's not a car drop just because he had an exciting week 1 and then in week 2, according to reports he would do, did not get much action. You did not hire him as a big September employee.
On the Panther side, there is concern for Cam Newton. First, Newton does not hurry, which hampers his fantasy blanket significantly. Second, although Newton certainly had the speed of several throws, his accuracy does not seem to be there. Whether this has anything to do with his off-season shoulder surgery is unclear, but Newton certainly had bad accuracy games in the past and could recover. The hope is that this happens here. His graduation rate of 48% is far below any season of his career and especially below his 68% mark last season.
One positive point was that Newton was ready to push the ball down a lot more often in Week 2 (which is probably why his accuracy issues were noticeable because they are more difficult to throw). The depth of the throws was helpful for Curtis Samuel, who saw 13 goals and 234 air yards (18.0 aDOT), more air yards than any other player in Week 1. D.J. Moore also saw big volume and caught nine of 14 goals for 89 yards. His goals are more likely to be owned by an ADOT of 8.5.
Both, frankly, could have been far more productive than Newton's. Both recipients seem to be involved in big roles, just as Greg Olsen actually led the team to receiving with a 9-6-110 line despite a questionable input.
Christian McCaffrey still played his typically big snap assignment, but the Panthers seemed to stay away from him, which makes sense, considering it's only week 2 and he had 29 touches in week one. Chalk it out for a short week and a desire to win this game in a different way; I assume that this is one of the lowest fantasy outputs in McCaffrey's season.
Signal: Cam Newton – no hurry; Mike Evans – many airfields; D.J. Moore / Curtis Samuel – Large Rollers
Noise: Cam Newton – 51 Attempts to Pass; Christian McCaffrey – 2 receptions; O.J. Howard – 0 receptions; Peyton Barber – 24 touches (script related)
Ravens 23 – Cardinals 17
Quick Notes: Marquise Brown – 65% (+ 47%), Mark Ingram – 58% (+ 26%), Gus Edwards – 20% (-18%), Justice Hill – 20% (-10%) )%), Damiere Byrd – 93% (+ 5%), KeeSean Johnson – 32% (-44%), Michael Crabtree – 32% (+ 32%), David Johnson – 60% (-26%), Chase Edmonds – 40% (+ 29%)
Key Statistics: Marquise Brown – 37 Routes (84% of Dropbacks)
The Ravens and Cardinals did not disappoint in an exciting matchup of young quarterbacks with double threats on paper Week 2 begins with Lamar Jackson, who underpinned his strong performance in Week 1 with yet another highly efficient outing, but after just six quick yards in Week 1, he also got his legs open. Jackson won 120 yards on the ground at 16, and the ability to post 12 fantasy points before even thinking about passing stats is what makes him a cheat code for fantasy. As I said in the intro, he is a top 3 fantasy quarterback.
Marquise Brown's huge production with limited snapshots was an important data point for week 1, but now he's completely out of the window. Brown completed a team of 37 tracks and saw 13 goals and 149 airfields, earning the sixth-highest WOPR in Week 2. He is a must in Week 3 against the Chiefs.
The other wide-angle receivers are less notable as the team spun and Jackson continued his penchant for the tight end position, targeting Mark Andrews nine times for an 8-112-1 line and another four passes against Nick Boyle, tossing Hayden Hurst, where Hurst is the recipient of Jackson's second touchdown pass. It's clear that Andrews and Brown are the figureheads here. No other raven had more than three goals in week 2, and in two weeks Brown is the team leader at 18, Andrews at 17, and none at more than six.
Mark Ingram was beaten and did not play full snapshots. All the more remarkable was that his share of snapshots increased significantly. The lack of RB goals remains a concern, and while Ingram was efficient with his two chances and a 2:30 payline, two goals are not enough to release big fantasy weeks in the modern NFL, especially if you Quarterback May Fail – Wear Like Jackson in Week 2. Ingram is still a sale for me, which, despite the offense, is an oppressive production. Justice Hill is worth holding because his snapshots have dropped but not as strong as Gus Edwards', and he's still the most talented supporter here.
While Jackson was great, Kyler Murray was not far away. Murray played on the road against a fearsome Ravens defense and was very efficient especially as a passerby. Murray's lack of Rushing production in two games is a bit strange as he ran over 1,000 yards in college, but his advantage is not too different from that of Jackson when the rushing shows up in a road race in Baltimore Thrown yards. He's a great guy to spot when you buy him, since he did not produce touchdowns in Week 2. Let's hope he learns from that, because it was not great for fantasy.
The passing game was more focused and anticipated in Week 2. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk dominated the destinations and airfields and both recorded 100-yard days. We talked about the high rate of four sentences last week, and in week 2 it went on, though the time has shifted. Damiere Byrd was the clear number 3 and played 93% of the recordings, while KeeSean Johnson made a considerable number of recordings to Michael Crabtree when they shared the fourth broad receiving role. If you added Johnson in lower leagues like I did last week, it can be dropped, but that's a situation to monitor, considering the total number of snapshots and routes available to broad recipients in this offensive.
David Johnson suffered an injury to the same surgically repaired wrist that had shortened his 2017 season, and the team was understandably cautious. Johnson returned to scoring a brief touchdown after the injury, but Chase Edmonds played a 40% quick turn one week after just 11%. The Cardinals stood in a passable script and consisted of only eight rushes, with Johnson taking seven. Johnson only had one catch, but that may be expected since his wrist was injured.
I'm not too worried about Johnson's use or lack of mileage in this one, and I'm glad he got away without major injury. This will be monitored in the coming days.
Signal: Marquise Brown – full-time player; Kyler Murray – Strong Passenger Efficiency in a Hard Street Matchup
Noise: David Johnson – Lack of Touchdowns, Production (Injury, Hard Matchup)
Key Statistics: Marlon Mack – 95.7% TRAP; Derrick Henry – 83.8% TRAP (Historical Average – 75.1%)
Offensively, the Colts and Titans have many similarities at the moment. We talked last week about how the Colts stuck to the running game in a negative script, and during two weeks both teams are among the league leaders in neutral situations.
That was problematic for many of the passing options in this case. Jacoby Brissett threw three touchdowns for the Colts, which helped some of the fantasy buzz on their side. Eric Ebron scored a shovel pass on the first drive, which was triggered by a long defensive pass interference from Deon Cain. Ebron continues to be a red zone-dependent weapon that can be launched in case of emergency.
Last week we mentioned that there may be several recipients behind T.Y. Hilton did with Devin Funchess, and all four played moderate snapshots again, though it was nice to see Cain get that deep look. Parris Campbell scored but managed only 31% of the dropbacks, while Cain was second in the team with 60% of the dropbacks, but was only once officially targeted and had no catch.
It is possible that the offense will be exacerbated, as Brissett certainly looks better than 2017, as we expected. Given that the offensive is currently meager, the secondary options are not good bets. Brissett only has 336 yards through two games, though the Colts lag behind for significant portions of both.
Hilton is not immune to these offensive concerns and needed a late touchdown to set a 6-4-43-1 line. He now has three goals in two games and although I would not betray him for anything, I would like to trade him into leagues where my opponents overstate touchdowns.
Tennessee has similar concerns and almost as many options in passing. Corey Davis played better and caught a pass within the 5 that triggered a short Derrick Henry touchdown, but the general lack of pass meant a mediocre 5-3-38 line. He was the only Titan player to have played more than 60% of the snaps or driven a route with more than two-thirds of the dropbacks, but unfortunately he can be dropped in flatter formats.
A.J.. Brown went 5-3-25 and still looks like a star but only ran 49% of the dropbacks on a route. Volume is the most important red flag in his profile. Adam Humphries caught two short passes and made a quick attempt for a total of zero meters. All three recipients were behind the goals and production of Delanie Walker in Week 2. Walker looks healthy and of the Tennessee passers-by he's the one I'm most willing to do, but the Titans only completed 52 passes in two weeks and have too many opportunities to be consistent fantasy producers to that extent. It does not help that a Tackle Qualifier got a touchdown in Week 2.
The running situations are also very similar for these two teams. Both rounds are not as involved in the passing game as we would have liked, but have enough potential to achieve a solid rushing efficiency and to score on the ground in a given week. Unfortunately Monster Monster simply can not make it up.
It was nice to see that Marlon Mack drove a route to 51% of Brissett's Dropbacks and was targeted three times, his first three of the year. But his snapshots dropped slightly as Jordan Wilkins interfered, and Wilkins ripped off a run of 55 yards and finished the run with 82 rushing yards on just five trages compared to Macks 51 with 20 totes. So it would not be surprising to see Wilkins next week another handful of opportunities.
Derrick Henry was also attacked three times but had a bad drop on an outlet pass at the start of the game and Dion Lewis landed more than twice as fast as Henry, bringing the snap split to exactly 50/50. One of Henry's other goals came in a script, so he was released in week 1 for a long touchdown reception. However, since he does not cover many distances, these goals could quickly go dry, and five or two games are not enough, we would like to see anyway.
Overall, Mack has only two valuable scores from a total of 47 in two games. Henry has only six precious touches out of a total of 37 touches and he has now scored three of them, which is a classic overperformance of the true value of his role. Although we know that both players can beat homeruns, they will have some dud games if things do not change (Mack did so in week 2).
Signal: Colts / Titans – Run First Crimes; Marlon Mack / Derrick Henry – TRAPy Workloads; Colts / Titans – many receiving options, not enough volume for all
Noise: Derrick Henry / T.Y. Hilton – three touchdowns per match in two games (not quite loud, but creates a potential sell high)
Bills 28 – Giants 14
Snap Notes: John Brown – 79% (-6%), Frank Gore – 59% (+ 30%), Devin Singletary – 33% (-35%), Saquon Barkley – 87% (+8 %)%), Evan Engram – 79% (+ 3%), Cody Latimer – 57% (-31%)
Key statistics: John Brown – 8 targets, 110 air meters
It's Week 2 and I've already come across a game I wish I could just skip it. Let's do it fast.
John Brown has posted a solid 8-7-72 line, but it is the one incomplete target that is the story. Brown got behind the defense and should have had a long touchdown, but Josh Allen overthrew him. It will clearly continue to achieve many goals, and it is certainly positive that, despite Allen's inconsistency, he has still set a respectable line (with good overall efficiency).
Apart from this litter, Allen played very well. He scored on a scheduled run, and the Cam Newton comps were all over Twitter. It's not the worst competition in the world, especially considering that Allen has scored up to 10 quick touchdowns in 14 career games, a ratio we've only seen from Newton's quarterbacks so far.
Zay Jones played more in Week 2 and Cole Beasley played a little less, though Beasley led the team with 83 to four goals thanks to a 51-yard game. Isaiah McKenzie and Robert Foster also ran a bit. Rookies Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney take turns with veteran Tyler Kroft. Look, you do not play any of these guys. John Brown is the only option here for a passing game.
Devin Singletary looked really good. He scored 57 rushing yards and a score of just six carry, but Frank Gore was heavily involved throughout because we can not have nice things. To further hurt the insult, Singletary had an Achilles tendon problem in the fourth quarter. I do not care that Frank Gore hurried 19 times for 68 yards and one notch and also caught two passes – I'll turn this bus over and finish your precious little excursion before I advocate starting a 36-year return. If Singletary fails long and you are in a difficult situation, get T.J. Yeldon. He would rather catch passes anyway.
If it looks as if I do not appreciate the bills, I'm almost certainly more for the giants. At least they came out and ran the ball five times right on their first ride; Saquon Barkley was in a hurry at 12:36 in the first quarter at 4: 55: 1. After two battles, Eli Manning reached his first finish on the team's fourth journey. They ran four games on this ride, but got a first defeat!
Of course all the passers-by were injured or suspended. Bennie Fowler led the team with 10 goals, followed by Evan Engram with eight and Barkley with seven. Sources that do not count passes that are scored will score fewer points for Barkley. Eli stabbed at least one at Barkley's feet and dropped another at the line I saw. Barkley has run over 100 meters, but his overall 107 feel a bit disappointing after the quick start. He has a lot to do with the efficiency of the noise, since he has so far negative five air meters. Getting behind the scenes hurts his ability to deliver a solid reception. His seven receptions in two games are also below the average of 5.7, which he had achieved in the past year per game.
Engram has caught six balls for 48 yards, and although we expected many goals and perhaps more production, this must be quite good under the circumstances of the team.
Pat Shurmur – Please just start with Daniel Jones for this crime to have a chance of a life.
Signal: John Brown – Only feasible receiving (and possibly skill position) option on the bills
Noise: Bennie Fowler – 10 goals (someone had to get them with all the missing players)  Week 2
49ers 41 – Bengals 17
Key Stat: Deebo Samuel – 7 goals , 2 Rush Attempts with only 29 Snapshots
From a fantasy perspective, this game was dominated by Kyle Shanahan, whose system is known to produce otherworldly running back numbers, and who did not disappoint here. Unfortunately for Fantasy, these numbers have been distributed to three players.
Despite the statements of the snap-shares – they always have to be included in the blowouts with a grain of salt – Matt Breida was in the lead and looked very good on the ground at 121 meters on 12 rushes, including a 32-yard He seemed to be peaking from nothing.
But he also got only a high grade grade, a reception on his lone goal while Raheem Mostert had four HVT and Jeff Wilson three. Mostert's most valuable achievements were three receptions and a carry from the three-yard line, while Wilson did not record a catch but wore it three times from the mid-ten and hit twice.
However, part of this rotation was due to blowing out. Breida did not touch in the fourth quarter, while seven of Wilson's ten touches came in the closing stages and Mostert played throughout. Wilson was in action for two short runs in the second quarter and finished the race in which Breida had done the aforementioned big chunk. This could be due to Breida taking a breather, or it could be an indication of a particular use of the red zone. Wilson's second goal, however, came after Breida had finally left the game.
Mostert ran 14 routes to the seven of Breida and landed in the first quarter in a landing of 39 meters. All in all, the three backs were together for 35 Carries, four receptions, a total of 315 yards and three touchdowns. In the future, I would expect Breida to lead a committee in which Mostert may see more casuals.
George Kittle was less active in Passing Match 2 in Week 2, but still very efficient, scoring all three goals he saw for 54 yards. Remember, he had two touchdowns in Week 1. There is nothing to fear there, but it has opened some goals for Dant … haha, no. Dante Pettis threw a pass but was not targeted, even though he shot more snapshots this week!
Deebo Samuel and Marquise Goodwin were the first and most prolific recipients. Goodwin landed early on the ground and finished the race with a 3-77-1-line in three goals, while Samuel was the highlight and scored five of seven goals for 87 yards and one goal. He also got two rush attempts and was very dedicated as the 49ers did not have to roll a barrel and the players seemed to change when the game got out of hand – only Kittle played a quick share of over 51%. He is a great abandonment goal that could get a bit under the wheels.
It was not a great game for the Bengals. We knew that Joe Mixon was not healthy and his statistics showed it. He scored six high-profile goals with three receptions and three consecutive rush attempts from the 5-, 3- and 1-yard line, but could not score.
Tyler Boyd repeatedly showed what he wanted with a 10-10-122 line, while John Ross turned it into a 34-yard run, apart from a nice catch-and-run with a quick dip could, for the most part, be quietly profitable … to he also added a 66-yard landing with less than a minute left, again on a catch-and-run. Ross landed with 112 yards on four catches, and 88 of those yards came after catch.
If you're worried that Ross can not keep his ridiculous touchdown rate, you think his college stats were not much different from what he's done at the NFL level so far.
Ross will definitely regress from his first two statistical lines, but he's a solid bet to play games all year round, now that he's an all-round player and clearly an important part of the offense.
Tyler Eifert also scored a goal, but C.J. Uzomah again took the position in snapshots and Rookie Drew Sample got some playing time, although both his catches arrived in the late fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Eifert is mostly a part-time player and not a fantasy option, although he is likely to play in the red zone very often.
Andy Dalton is now a fantasy option. His day was certainly enhanced by the late Ross score, but with the weapons he has around, he is easily seen on the radar.
Signal: Deebo Samuel – 49ers WR to the finish; Matt Breida – to lead back; Raheem Mostert – Going back down; Jeff Wilson – meistens in der Müllzeit gespielt, hat aber vielleicht eine rote Zone
Lärm: Tyler Eifert – erzielte einen Touchdown (lief nur eine Route auf 23% der Dropbacks); Joe Mixon – schildern Sie zumindest einen Teil seiner schlechten Linie für seine Verletzung
Seahawks 28 – Steelers 26
Snap Notes: D.K. Metcalf – 89% (+ 11%), Chris Carson – 54% (-22%), Rashaad Penny – 33% (+ 6%), CJ Prosise – 13% (+ 13%), Will Dissly – 59% (+ 8%), James Washington – 60% (+ 8%), Diontae Johnson – 47% (+ 11%), Donte Moncrief – 32% (-58%), Vance McDonald – 91% (+19%)
Key Stat: Tyler Lockett – 12 Ziele, 6.8 aDOT
Die große Neuigkeit hier ist offensichtlich Roethlisbergers Verletzung, da er operiert werden und den Rest der Saison verpassen wird . James Conner erlitt ebenfalls eine Verletzung, aber das scheint nicht ernst zu sein. Ohne Roethlisberger ist jeder in der Steelers-Offensive stark betroffen, zumindest was den aktuellen Wert betrifft.
Mason Rudolph wird das Kommando übernehmen, und Rudolph hat sowohl in der zweiten Hälfte der zweiten Woche als auch in der Vorsaison gut gespielt, als er 65,1% seiner 43 Passversuche für beeindruckende 8,3 Yards pro Versuch (insgesamt 368 Yards) und vier Touchdowns absolvierte mit einem abfangen. Er zeigte eine starke Verbindung mit dem ehemaligen Teamkollegen von Oklahoma State, James Washington, und diese Verbindung macht Washington zu einer sehr interessanten Option für einen Verzicht.
Washington traf in Woche 2 nur zwei von drei Zielen für 23 Yards, aber er spielte mehr Schnappschüsse, als Donte Moncrief völlig in Ungnade fiel. Aufgrund einer sehr schlechten Woche 1 stieg Moncrief von 90% der Dropbacks in Woche 1 auf nur 31% in Woche 2 und sollte in den meisten Ligen reduziert werden. Washington und Rookie Diontae Johnson waren in Woche 2 die Nos. 2 und 3, und abgesehen von seiner Geschichte mit Rudolph ist Washington besonders faszinierend, da in Woche 1 die dritthöchste Anzahl von Flugplätzen in der NFL erreicht wurde. Johnson ist mehr von einem Watchlist-Typ und in tieferen Formaten hinzuzufügen, hat aber auch Potenzial angesichts des Mangels an Bedrohungen für dieses Vergehen.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ist offensichtlich die Nummer 1 und hatte einen weiteren heißen Tag, aber natürlich hat Roethlisbergers Verletzung nicht geholfen. JuJu brauchte eine Weile, um in der ersten Halbzeit in Fahrt zu kommen, als Roethlisberger noch im Spiel war. Er hatte jedoch zwei Ziele und einen durch Elfmeter negierten Fang und traf auch ein Ziel außerhalb des Strafraums, sodass es nicht so ist, als wäre er unsichtbar. Er endete mit einer 8-5-84-Linie, wird aber einen ziemlich bedeutenden Treffer einstecken, wenn die Steelers ohne Roethlisberger mehr in Fahrt kommen. Ein großer Grund, JuJu in diesem Jahr zu lieben, war seine astronomische Zielobergrenze in einem passfreudigen Vergehen. Trotzdem kann JuJu einen Ball spielen, und er wird nicht verschwinden.
Die Steelers warfen in der zweiten Hälfte der zweiten Woche reichlich, folgten aber und verloren auch Conner. Es wird interessant sein zu beobachten, wie sich das Vergehen ohne Roethlisberger entwickelt, aber in der Regel sind Trainer mit jungen Quarterbacks konservativer.
Vance McDonald spielte in Woche 2 mehr Schnappschüsse und zahlte sich mit zwei Touchdowns – beide von Rudolph – auf sieben Zielen aus. Wir müssen abwarten, ob Conner verletzt ist, aber angesichts des Quarterback-Wechsels wird er wahrscheinlich eine große Arbeitsbelastung haben, wenn er gesund ist. Jaylen Samuels sah für Conner sehr gut aus und sollte in allen Ligen vertreten sein. Benny Snell hat auch einen schönen Lauf gemacht, aber nur zwei Schnappschüsse in zwei Wochen gespielt. Samuels sieht aus wie die klare Handschelle zum Zielen.
Tyler Lockett saw 12 targets and notably at an aDOT of just 6.8. This is a great sign for his value after just two targets in Week 1, specifically because for him to take a target leap this year he needed to see more short and intermediate passes. That's what his whole game was in Week 2; by comparison, his 2018 aDOT was 13.6 and his two targets in Week 1 were both downfield looks, resulting in a 34.0 aDOT. Those deep shots will still be there for Lockett, but now we have confirmation he can rack up short area targets, too.
D.K. Metcalf caught his first career touchdown and saw seven targets and a team-high 113 air yards. Both Metcalf and Lockett ran routes on 98% of Russell Wilson's dropbacks, and are the clear top two receiving options in this offense. Will Dissly scored twice, but he and Nick Vannett split the tight end routes. Dissly got off to a great start in 2018 before a season-ending knee injury, and is certainly a deeper tight end option, but just note that he's splitting reps.
Chris Carson lost two more fumbles after losing one in Week 1, and while the Seahawks really seem to like him and want him to be the guy, they did take action. Carson's snap share was 22 percentage points lower in Week 2 than Week 1, and given Rashaad Penny answered the bell with a 37-yard touchdown run, it's possible we could see more of a split going forward.
Particularly of note was Carson running routes on just 41% of dropbacks after 71% in Week 1. Penny got out in 12 routes to Carson's 17, while C.J. Prosise was also involved in the passing game, running six routes.
Signal: Tyler Lockett — not just a deep threat; Chris Carson — fumblitis, lose some playing time; Donte Moncrief — lost significant playing time
Noise: Pittsburgh — pass-heavy offense we've seen with Ben Roethlisberger over the past few seasons (we just don't know what to expect)
Texans 13 – Jaguars 12
Snap Notes: Carlos Hyde – 61% (+25%), Duke Johnson – 39% (-25%), Will Fuller – 91% (-6%), Keke Coutee – 44% (+44%), Kenny Stills – 38% (-4%), Leonard Fournette – 97% (+11%), Dede Westbrook – 87% (+4%), Chris Conley – 85% (+9%), D.J. Chark – 82% (+11%)
Key Stat: Houston – 263 total yards
Houston and Jacksonville became an entertaining game late, but for the first three quarters it was remarkably dull. The Jaguars did a good job limiting Deshaun Watson and the Texans passing game, and Houston was content leaning on Carlos Hyde. On the other side, Gardner Minshew wasn't able to get anything going until late. He threw for 122 of his 213 passing yards in the fourth quarter.
Hyde was the big story in that he stole 25 percentage points of snap share from Duke Johnson relative to their Week 1 split. He carried the ball 20 times and definitely looks solid in Houston's system. Still, as I'll say with a lot of backfields, one back performing well doesn't have to mean the other back isn't; I've seen commentary that Hyde has outplayed Duke, but that's largely an opportunity thing, because Duke's 5.9 YPC on 15 carries is right in line with Hyde's 5.8 YPC on 30. Hyde of course gets more credit for doing it over a larger sample, but the point is Duke isn't exactly playing poorly.
What was a bad sign for Johnson was the return of Keke Coutee, and it's a safe bet the four targets Coutee got in the short area of the field contributed to Duke seeing just one on the day. Of course, Watson threw just 29 times and for just 159 yards, so this wasn't a good day offensively overall.
As for Hyde, he did notably get a carry from the 3-yard line, although he didn't score and wasn't targeted. Thus, he posted just the 9.0 Fantasy points from his rushing yardage. That's what 20 touches — efficient ones, even! — looks like when just one of them is a HVT, and it's not nearly as good for Fantasy as it seems like it should be when you watch the game. If nine Fantasy points is the output from what was undeniably a good outcome on the field, that's a TRAP back, and not the type of player you want to actively target for Fantasy Football.
Bill O'Brien said Kenny Stills would play more in Week 2, but he actually lost some snaps with Coutee's return. Will Fuller was still out there on over 90% of the snaps and looks locked in to a full-time role. Both Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins had off days, again in large part thanks to the passing offense as a whole being either stifled or taken out of the game by O'Brien's play-calling, depending on your point of view.
Leonard Fournette again played a massive snap share, and he's going to have a big game as soon as the offense has a solid performance. But as noted, the offense was stuck in neutral for three quarters; they finished with just 281 total yards.
Compare what I said above about Hyde to Fournette, who had a poor game. He rushed just 15 times for 47 yards and didn't get any short-yardage runs because of the offensive woe. But, because he is an every-down back involved in the passing game, he added three catches on four targets in the fourth quarter while the Jaguars were in comeback mode. That got him to four catches for 40 yards on the day, and 12.7 PPR points in what felt like more of a floor game than a positive outcome. Not coming off the field for a T.J. Yeldon type in those late-game situations is very big for Fournette's value this year.
The Jacksonville receiving tree got more concentrated with Marqise Lee inactive and each of Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley and D.J. Chark picking up snaps. It was Chark who led the team with nine targets and seven receptions, finding the end zone. He tied with Conley for the team lead at 73 receiving yards, and Conley led the team in air yards. That duo is really raining on the Dede Westbrook breakout parade, but Westbrook shouldn't be abandoned just yet, and if he's dropped, he's an easy add. Chark is a more interesting play than Conley given he's a young guy with a solid profile, while Conley is in his fifth year and hasn't done much to date in his career.
Signal: Carlos Hyde — role expanding, TRAPy touch mix; Will Fuller — still a full-time guy with all four WRs healthy; Leonard Fournette — massive snap share
Noise: Houston — general lack of offense, passing yardage; Dede Westbrook — 3.0 yards per target
Patriots 43 – Dolphins 0
Snap Notes: Julian Edelman – 92% (-4%), Josh Gordon – 79% (+9%), Antonio Brown – 33% (+33%), Sony Michel – 49% (+16%), James White – 31% (-16%), Rex Burkhead – 24% (-22%), Matt LaCosse – 58% (+58%), DeVante Parker – 92% (+16%), Preston Williams – 68% (+27%), Kenyan Drake – 55% (+2%), Kalen Ballage – 34% (-7%), Mark Walton – 16% (+8%)
Key Stat: Antonio Brown – 8 targets on 14 routes
This was a Sony Michel game. That was clear when the schedule was released. It's perhaps alarming, then, that Michel mustered just 12.5 Fantasy points in leagues where fumbles are minus-2.
I could essentially copy and paste the Carlos Hyde section, but Michel rushed 21 times for 85 yards with no targets. He did get five high-value touches, though three came on the same drive where he scored. He got two more chances on another drive, but that one ended with a Tom Brady sneak. Because Brady sneaks a lot and the Patriots also incorporate players like James Develin — who had four touchdowns last year — in close, I've never really bought into Michel's touchdown upside. Given he's only run eight routes this year, there's not much more here but low-value rush attempts in plus scripts. In a game like this, when he plays an elevated snap share and is heavily involved, he should absolutely score more than 12.5 PPR points, or you don't have a high-value Fantasy back.
James White and Rex Burkhead both took a back seat to Michel this week, but Burkhead's involvement in the passing game through two weeks isn't great news for White even when the script calls for more passing, especially with more downfield options in the passing game. Thus far, Burkhead has 10 targets to White's 11.
Antonio Brown ran just 14 routes, seeing eight targets and catching four with a touchdown. This seems an indication that as long as he's active, he's likely to command a high target share. Heath Cummings discussed what that means for Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon.
Matt LaCosse made his debut and was on the field quite a bit, catching both targets he saw for 33 yards. His 11.0 aDOT was notable in that it was more downfield than most tight ends. Benjamin Watson will eventually be returning, but I'm keeping an eye on LaCosse as a potential deeper tight end option.
There's not much to say about a Dolphins team that looks incapable of generating offense. Miami's 384 total yards through two games are the second-fewest in the first two games of a season by any team in the past eight years, trailing only last year's Cardinals. Neither Ryan Fitzpatrick nor Josh Rosen threw for more than 100 yards on 21 and 18 pass attempts, and they combined to take seven sacks and throw four interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Miami was somehow worse on the ground, managing just 42 rushing yards on 15 attempts. You can't start a single player in this offense right now.
Signal: Miami — stay away; Antonio Brown — targeted heavily in limited playing time; Sony Michel — TRAP back
Noise: Sony Michel — snap, touch increase (will fluctuate with game script)
Lions 13 – Chargers 10
Snap Notes: Ty Johnson – 21% (+11%), C.J. Anderson – 20% (-9%), Travis Benjamin – 66% (+18%), Mike Williams – 61% (-4%), Dontrelle Inman – 57% (+16%), Austin Ekeler – 73% (-2%), Justin Jackson – 27% (+2%)
The Lions were substantially slower-paced in Week 2, as expected after their overtime game with the high-octane Cardinals. They didn't have many notable playing time changes, and followed up last week's performance with a similarly narrow passing tree, led by Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones running a full slate of routes and T.J. Hockenson (routes on 73% of dropbacks in Week 1, 69% in Week 2) and Danny Amendola (71% in Week 1, 63% in Week 2) each dipping slightly due likely to more run packages in Amendola's case and more bocking in Hockenson's. Last week, I had this to say about the passing game:
"Detroit also got a nice volume boost from the extra period, and we likely saw far more passing from Matthew Stafford than we'll see most weeks. T.J. Hockenson was a clear star with a 9-6-131-1 line, a phenomenal first performance for anyone, but especially a rookie tight end. Danny Amendola and Kenny Golladay joined him as Lions with at least nine targets and 120 air yards.
Amendola's 13-7-104-1 line also stands out, if only because of the easy comparison to Golden Tate's old high-volume role. But much like the Ravens' and Cowboys' writeups earlier, we do have to be concerned about whether both Amendola and Hockenson can be productive at the same time when the volume — Stafford threw 45 passes, more than any of his final 14 games in 2018 — and overall production comes back down a bit, especially assuming Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay will likely be the lead receiving options most weeks."
In Week 2, we saw that, with Stafford throwing 30 times, Hockenson and Amendola combining for just four targets, and Golladay and Jones leading the way with 10 and six targets. Golladay was particularly good, turning 148 air yards and the second-highest WOPR of Week 2 (0.83) into an 8-117-1 line.
Don't read too much into Jesse James seeing four targets to Hockenson's three. This was the bad end of the spectrum, but Hockenson ran twice as many routes as James, and should still be the lead option at the position for Detroit going forward. The issue is just volume, especially if Golladay is the legit No. 1 he looked like in Week 2.
Kerryon Johnson continues to be explosive and entertaining but a bit underworked for our purposes, while Ty Johnson got a little more work behind him at the expense of C.J. Anderson. J.D. McKissic is also involved, and it all adds up to just 14 touches for Kerryon out of 28 total for Detroit's RBs. Of course, an explosive 36-yard touchdown reception helped him post a very strong Fantasy total. He'll be hit-or-miss without more consistent work.
The only player with a higher WOPR than Golladay in Week 2 was on the other side of the same game, as Keenan Allen posted a massive 216 air yards — atypical downfield usage for him — on 15 targets, for a WOPR of 1.02. His 8-98-0 line undersells how heavily he was used, and he should continue to be leaned on while Hunter Henry is out.
Mike Williams played through injury and got close to his injury-shortened Week 1 snap share, again playing just shy of two-thirds of the snaps. He showed off his downfield ability with a ridiculous diving catch for a 47-yard gain with four seconds in the half to allow the Chargers to tack on a field goal before the break. He's a good bet to have some solid performances while Henry is out, as well.
Outside those two, the only other Charger with more than two targets was Austin Ekeler. Ekeler again played about three-quarters of the snaps, posting another strong Fantasy total that could have been much bigger. I hate to quote myself twice in the same blurb, but last week's Ekeler comment is notable.
"Austin Ekeler's Week 1 was the embodiment of what can happen when a low TRAP back gets a bigger workload. We may have expected a bit more of a timeshare with Justin Jackson, but Ekeler wound up playing 75% of the snaps, and he notably maintained a low TRAP, rushing just 12 times (including twice in the green zone) against six catches on seven targets. In other words, eight of his 18 touches were HVT. He scored on three of those."
Ekeler came back with nine more HVT on 23 total touches, and now leads the league in high-value touches. He scored on a short touchdown run, but fumbled away another opportunity while trying to leap over the pile a second time. It was a costly fumble for the Chargers, but they didn't go away from him, as he got a handoff on their very next offensive play after they regained possession.
Notably, just plays before the fumble, Ekeler took a short pass 22 yards for a touchdown, only for it to be called back. That he didn't get his second score on that drive was a cruel twist of fate.
Justin Jackson isn't getting the usage we'd like, but he also continues to look great. His long run on the day was a 40-yarder that was actually a 60-yard touchdown that was also called back by a downfield hold on Dontrelle Inman that negated the final 20 yards. He's definitely worth a stash, but he's hard to start while Ekeler is dominating the high-value touches. Jackson had just one, a five-yard reception, and ran six routes to Ekeler's 21.
Signal: Keenan Allen — massive opportunity share without Hunter Henry; Kenny Golladay — looked like a true No. 1; Lions — 30/28 pass/run ratio; Austin Ekeler — one of the most valuable RB workloads in football right now
Noise: Jesse James — 4 targets (T.J. Hockenson still ran twice as many routes)
Packers 21 – Vikings 16
Snap Notes: Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 87% (+20%), Geronimo Allison – 45% (-4%), Aaron Jones – 57% (-4%), Jamaal Williams – 47% (+8%), Jimmy Graham – 72% ( +18%), Stefon Diggs – 89% (+29%), Alexander Mattison – 12% (-9%), Irv Smith – 42% (-7%)
Key Stat: Packers – 34/33 pass/run ratio
The Packers dominated the Vikings early, but never extended a lead that was briefly 21-0 early in the second quarter, and probably should have lost because of it. The biggest thing we learned is when they get positive game script, they will feed the running backs.
It might seem odd I said running backs and not just Aaron Jones, but the reality is Jones actually lost a few percentage points of snap share while Jamaal Williams gained relative to Week 1. Despite the fact that Jones out-targeted him six to four, Williams ran more routes, and his nine carries was decent usage on the ground.
Now, some of that was just that Jones likely needed some breathers, given he rushed 23 times and caught four more passes for 27 total touches. But it's worth pointing out that Jones didn't dominate the backfield — it was more that the duo combined for 39 touches!
Perhaps we'll see that type of usage whenever the Packers get big leads, but that's a lot. It ties Baltimore's Week 1 performance against Miami as the second most RB touches in a game through two weeks, behind only San Francisco's Week 2 numbers in Cincinnati, discussed above. Jones looked great, and it was big to see him jump from one high-value touch in Week 1 to five in Week 2, including four catches, but this should absolutely be read as a word of caution.
Outside the backs, it was strictly receivers catching passes, with Davante Adams powering through a tough matchup to post a 9-7-106 line. Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw the second biggest opportunity share with six targets and 62 air yards, but didn't do much with it, while Geronimo Allison turned his five targets at a miniscule 3.2 aDOT into a 4-25-1 line. Jimmy Graham had two catchless targets after being an important secondary option in Week 1.
This is a fairly typical result for a team with a legit No. 1 and a low-volume passing game. Aaron Rodgers only threw for 209 yards, and because Adams accounted for more than half of them, there just wasn't much else to go around.
Despite the huge hole they found themselves in early, Minnesota still finished with a run-heavy lean, with a 32/27 pass/run ratio (they threw more than they ran, but anything approaching 50/50 is run-heavy, especially in a negative script). Those 32 pass attempts are substantially more than last week's 10, and they moved away from their two-tight end sets and opened things up a bit, but the split also drives home the run-first philosophy, given the game situation the Vikings found themselves in. That's bad news for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, and renders Kyle Rudolph droppable.
It's good news for Dalvin Cook backers, and he ripped off a 75-yard touchdown run for their first score en route to another huge rushing line (20-154-1). Cook also chipped in three catches for 37 yards, and while he won't maintain a 6.5 YPC and may not be a top three back if the rushing efficiency dips a bit, there's nothing too concerning here.
Diggs should have had a big day. He had one touchdown overturned on a booth-initiated replay inside two minutes of the first half that became an offensive pass interference penalty that didn't appear to be conclusive enough to warrant an overturn. Cousins also missed him on a couple throws he really should have made — Cousins struggled throughout to a 14/32 line — including this one:
Diggs also had an uncharacteristic drop of his own on what could have been a solid gain, but did bring in another deep pass for a touchdown, and his seven targets and 161 air yards were phenomenal usage. I'm not reading too much into the inefficiency on those targets.
Thielen, meanwhile, converted eight targets and 139 air yards of his own into a 5-75 line. The wide receiver duo combined for 48% of the team's targets and a ridiculous 89% of their air yards. It's not an ideal situation, but as long as they dominate the receiving game to that degree they will still be usable.
Signal: Vikings/Packers — want to be run-heavy; Aaron Jones — only 69% of RB touches
While Lamar Jackson has been rightfully grabbing headlines in the Fantasy community, Dak Prescott is perhaps going a bit underappreciated. The new Kellen Moore offense is clearly a major step up from prior Dallas schemes, and through two games Dak has completed a league-high 82.3% of his passes for a league-high 10.9 yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns and one interception.
That's great news for everybody on the offense, as is the next team on the schedule — Miami. The Cowboys did ramp up Ezekiel Elliott's usage in Week 2 (23-111-1), and it's possible we'll see him running roughshod over the Dolphins in Week 3 rather than Dak throwing 30-plus times. But there's no chance you can sit Dak for that matchup with how good he's been through two games.
It was part-time player Devin Smith who caught the long touchdown in Week 2, while Amari Cooper and Jason Witten caught shorter tosses for scores. Michael Gallup backed up his strong Week 1 with another good performance, leading the team with eight targets and catching six for 68, but he unfortunately tore his meniscus in the second half and will miss 2-4 weeks. Smith is the likely candidate to fill his role — interestingly, Smith's long touchdown came in the second quarter, before Gallup exited, and Smith caught two more passes in the fourth after Gallup was done for the day.
Witten's snaps rose, and he ran a route on two-thirds of Dak's dropbacks, up from 54% in Week 1. He's more of a PPR option, but is someone to consider in deeper formats as well while Gallup misses time. Of course, Amari Cooper is still the locked-in No. 1, and Randall Cobb has caught nine of 11 targets for 93 yards and a score through two games, so the Cowboys have options.
We noted last week Terry McLaurin was already playing a full snap share, and in Week 2 he solidified his status as the team's No. 1, seeing 10 targets for 134 air yards, good for a 0.83 WOPR that tied Kenny Golladay for second-highest on the week. His touchdown came late in garbage time, but even without it he had put together a nice day and seen plenty of volume throughout.
Paul Richardson also caught a touchdown, but saw just three targets at a 3.7 aDOT. Richardson has typically thrived as a deep threat, but despite running plenty of routes as an every-down guy, he has amassed just 86 air yards through two weeks. McLaurin and his 277 air yards has just taken those looks.
Chris Thompson and Trey Quinn were both active with eight and seven targets at low aDOTs and are not much more than PPR options, while Vernon Davis was used similarly but saw just four looks. None had overly appealing stat lines, but all ran plenty of routes and made up the rest of the main part of the receiving corps outside McLaurin and Richardson.
Adrian Peterson found paydirt but his 10-25 rushing line is both light on touches due to the negative script and light on efficiency, likely due to his age. He's unlikely to see much work in the passing game — he caught two balls in Week 2 but ran just five routes — so he's a tough guy to play in any matchup.
Signal: Terry McLaurin — Clear No. 1 usage; Michael Gallup — will miss some time, but someone to add if dropped because his usage and production has been top notch, even better than Cooper's
Noise: Adrian Peterson — The touchdown doesn't make him Fantasy relevant, and his two receptions were fluky given just five routes run
Key Stat: Patrick Mahomes – 549 air yards (career high by 82)
Patrick Mahomes is ridiculous. With Tyreek Hill sidelined, the Chiefs might have been expected to be a bit more conservative. Instead, after the Raiders got out to an early 10-0 lead, Mahomes aired it out more than ever, tossing four second-quarter touchdowns — the shortest of which was 27 yards — and setting a career high on the day with 549 air yards.
Somewhat surprisingly, Sammy Watkins didn't flourish, catching just six passes for 49 yards. But he was still the clear No. 1 by WOPR, leading the team with 13 targets and finishing with 139 air yards. The volume was very much there; his very strong Week 1 efficiency swung back to where he significantly underperformed his Week 2 volume. He's still a locked-in starter.
Travis Kelce did Travis Kelce things, posting a 9-7-107-1 line with 105 air yards. But Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman were the revelations. Robinson caught all six targets he saw at an aDOT of 25.3 (152 air yards) for 172 yards and two scores. Hardman was equally involved, seeing six targets and 82 air yards for a 4-61-1 receiving line but also losing another potential 72-yard score to a holding penalty on LeSean McCoy in the backfield. He very nearly had a line to match Robinson's.
I got asked on Twitter during the game which of the two I'd prioritize in season long by a follower who plays in a league with no waivers. It's almost impossible to say, and both are great adds, but the tiebreak for me right now would be Hardman already producing like this in his second career game, and how that speaks to further development in his rookie season, and likely more upside than Robinson.
With all the downfield passing, there wasn't much running back production. Damien Williams again led the backfield in snaps and routes run, seeing some downfield usage on wheel routes and posting a 9.6 aDOT on five targets, an uncharacteristically high figure for a running back. He left the game with a knee injury early in the fourth quarter that occurred away from the action and we don't have an update on, so his status moving forward is unclear. LeSean McCoy seemed to be filling a larger role even before Damien's injury, and he notably ran twice as many routes (16) as he did in Week 1 and caught three passes, but he too left with an injury. McCoy's was to the ankle, and an MRI revealed no structural damage.
As much as the two running back injuries seem to indicate Darwin Thompson could be in line for a significant uptick in snaps, Darrel Williams was also involved late, and he played five snaps to Thompson's four. We'll need more information on who is healthy to have any idea what the play is going forward.
I had this to say on Josh Jacobs last week:
"Josh Jacobs dominated the game for the Raiders in plus game script throughout, and Jon Gruden called his number 24 times, 23 of which were rush attempts. Jacobs was a hit largely because the offense was so successful — he converted two of his three green zone rush attempts for scores. Only three backs had more green zone attempts in Week 1.
As strong as his workload was, there's minor concern that his heavy touch count featured mostly low-value touches. It's only minor concern because he still racked up a solid four HVT, and Jalen Richard barely played. We don't know what the split will look like in negative scripts, and the Raiders will still find themselves there more often than not, but Week 1 was certainly a positive sign."
Jacobs wasn't completely absent in the passing game, but he gave up a ton of snaps in negative script and ran just 12 routes compared to Richard and DeAndre Washington combining for 21. He still helped his day with a solid 51-yard run, and two of his 12 rush attempts came in the green zone. In fact, right after a Jacobs 6-yard gain to the 4, Derek Carr threw a bad interception in the end zone on 1st and goal, something that might only increase the likelihood Jon Gruden leans on Jacobs when the Raiders get close. The lack of a receiving role is still a pretty significant concern, though.
Last season, Richard was a very valuable PPR back who caught 68 passes, but this year we're seeing him split the backup duties with Washington, which makes neither rosterable.
After a Week 1 where Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller dominated the passing game, Hunter Renfrow played substantially more snaps and became a clear third option, leading the team with eight targets but catching just four for 30. Williams and Waller both saw seven and were more productive, with Williams catching a touchdown and also being the end zone target on Carr's aforementioned interception. Both Williams and Waller are every-week starting options on volume alone.
Signal: Patrick Mahomes — will air it out plenty without Tyreek Hill; Josh Jacobs — lost snaps in negative script
Noise: Sammy Watkins — relative lack of production (still led team in WOPR by a considerable margin)
The loss of Drew Brees was the huge storyline from a game that could have been more of a shootout but became something far less exciting. And it's a significant loss, particularly for Alvin Kamara, as there's simply no one like Brees when it comes to targeting the running back position both from a volume and efficiency standpoint. Virtually every running back that has played with Brees throughout his career has posted elevated catch rates while on the Saints versus the rest of their career, and the Saints have also been in the top five of targets to the position in each season of the decade-plus Brees has been in New Orleans.
With Brees under center, this offense is in its own tier in terms of generating high-value touches for running backs. But with Teddy Bridgewater taking over for the majority of Week 2, Kamara saw just three targets and a less efficient offense overall meant no plays inside the opponent's 10-yard line.
Brees isn't out for the season, and it's possible Sean Payton and Brees will work with Bridgewater and try to fit him to the scheme somewhat, to mimic some of what Brees has done passing to the backs, so hope is not all lost. But it's a significant blow to the values of Kamara and Latavius Murray, especially as they will trade a lot of high-value touches for a likely higher rate of low-value rush attempts as the offense gets more conservative.
Michael Thomas is also hurt by the injury, despite a very typical 13-10-89 line in Week 2. His specific usage isn't damaged as much as the backs, but a big reason he's been so productive the past two seasons is ridiculous efficiency — he set the all-time catch percentage mark for a WR with over 100 targets last season by nearly eight percentage points at 85.0% — and we'd expect that efficiency to take a significant hit with the quarterback change.
And then guys like Jared Cook, Tre'Quan Smith and Ted Ginn were all interesting to varying degrees due to the efficiency of the offense more than their specific volume, because it's challenging to project any for significant target shares when Thomas in particular is such a target hog. So it's going to be tough to use that trio for the six weeks, the estimate on Brees' recovery, even if fewer passes to the backs could mean more downfield attempts.
The Rams' passing game is much the same as 2018, where all three main wide receivers are playing huge snaps, and you'll likely see at least two be productive in any given week. Robert Woods was the odd man out in this one, but he incredibly lost five targets and three receptions to plays negated by penalty, including a would-be 14-yard touchdown. He's not someone to worry about, but Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp were the beneficiaries. Cooks saw just four targets but led the team with 86 air yards, and converted a short touchdown to finish with a 3-74-1 line. Kupp had a phenomenal catch-and-run that was initially ruled a 66-yard touchdown but was overturned on replay as his knee was down at the 1. That led to a Jared Goff sneak, but Kupp still finished with a strong 9-5-120 line. Gerald Everett also saw an uptick in snaps and routes and is a deeper-league tight end to monitor.
Todd Gurley gave up a few more snaps, but we saw the same pattern we highlighted in Week 1. The Rams are simply rotating series, and while last week that meant two touchdowns for Malcolm Brown because he was in as the main back for both of those scoring drives, this week it meant a short touchdown for Gurley on one of hisseries.
Interestingly, Brown was the back to open the drive with the long Kupp reception, and he stayed in for the 1-yard Goff touchdown sneak after the lengthy review that overturned Kupp's touchdown. There was ample time for the Rams to substitute in Gurley because of the review, but they stuck to their pattern and kept Brown on the field. In 2017 or 2018, it's likely that even if Gurley were on the sideline for the beginning of such a series, he would have substituted in there. That's a microcosm of how Gurley's role has changed, but he still has plenty of value.
Still, Gurley had a solid day, catching three passes to jump to five high-value touches in Week 2 after just one in Week 1.
Darrell Henderson, who was going in the fifth round for a stretch this offseason when the Gurley panic was at its most extreme, has played just two snaps in two games. He's a tough guy to cut given the value of this offense when it's rolling and his strong prospect profile. It's probably necessary in shallower leagues, but he's still a good stash in deeper formats as a potential late-season breakout, and if I see him released in deeper formats I'm looking to scoop him up.
Signal: Alvin Kamara — sure to lose a lot of high-value touches without Brees; Rams — rotating backs by series
Noise: Robert Woods — just two targets (lost five targets, three receptions, a touchdown to plays negated by penalty)
Bears 16 – Broncos 14
Snap Notes: Anthony Miller – 52% (+31%), David Montgomery – 44% (+6%), Tarik Cohen – 38% (-34%), Mike Davis – 25% (-31%), Trey Burton – 43% (+43%), DaeSean Hamilton – 66% (-10%), Royce Freeman – 52% (+5%), Phillip Lindsay – 48% (-4%), Noah Fant – 66% (-15%)
Another game where an exciting finish masked a more boring game overall, but there were plenty of interesting usage trends to look at.
Tarik Cohen went from 40 slot snaps and just five in the backfield in Week 1 to just five slot snaps and 15 in the backfield in Week 2. He had never played anywhere near the number of slot snaps he played in Week 1, but there's an interesting parallel in Duke Johnson's 2017 season. The Browns did similar in Week 1, playing Duke 45 snaps in the slot, before immediately reverting him to his old role — he played just 38 slot snaps total the rest of the season. My working theory on Cohen is we'll see similar, and that Week 1 was just a matchup thing and/or an attempt to catch Green Bay off guard.
Anthony Miller was the big winner from this shift, going from routes on 21% of Week 1 dropbacks to 48% in Week 2. He's still not playing enough and it's fine if you dropped him, but that bears watching.
Mitchell Trubisky only threw for 120 yards on 27 passes, and 30 of those yards came on two completions that set up a game-winning field goal. The Bears only generated 273 yards of total offense. Allen Robinson again looked like the clear No. 1, and was on the receiving end of a 25-yard completion on the game's penultimate play. His 7-4-41 line looks a little better when you consider game context.
Trey Burton returned to a partial role, running nine routes, while Chicago's other tight ends, Ben Braunecker (eight routes) and Adam Shaheen (seven), were also involved. All three had three targets, and we'll see whether Burton starts to pick up more snaps going forward.
It was a David Montgomery game, with the rookie taking 18 carries including five in the green zone on the same drive. After Montgomery was stuffed twice, the Bears threw on third down and drew a defensive holding penalty. An automatic first down led to three more Montgomery runs, and he finally found pay dirt on third down. Matt Nagy's willingness to keep calling Montgomery's number in lieu of passing or rotating in Mike Davis was very notable here.
In fact, Davis got just three touches all game and his snap share fell by 31 percentage points. It wasn't all positive for Montgomery, though. That Cohen was more involved in backfield snaps meant that Montgomery's snap share didn't rise by the same degree, and Cohen stole some of the passing downs work as Montgomery went from 15 routes in Week 1 to just seven in Week 2.
Last week, I called the Broncos not using Devontae Booker "one of the most interesting Week 1 takeaways."
"Last season, despite having both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, the Broncos somewhat quietly still utilized Devontae Booker heavily as a third-down back. In games played, Booker averaged 19.8 snaps per game with Lindsay at 30.2 and Freeman at 22.0."
I also noted that because the split between Lindsay and Freeman was closer to 50/50 than last year, Freeman was the big winner. Well in Week 2, Freeman out-snapped Lindsay and was the far more effective back. With Joe Flacco pulling a Joe Flacco and throwing for fewer than 300 yards on 50 attempts, there were plenty of checkdowns to go around, and both Freeman and Lindsay saw seven targets. Lindsay did out-carry Freeman 13 to 11, but Freeman gained 102 total yards to Lindsay's 66.
This is a good time to remind you that Freeman was the second-round pick last year while Lindsay was the UDFA. Yes, Lindsay had a great rookie season, but Freeman had a ridiculous college production record that included very strong receiving numbers — over 800 career receiving yards to go along with over 5,600 rushing yards and 64 career touchdowns — and at nearly 50 pounds heavier (with better agility metrics and without sacrificing much speed) is the far more physically gifted back of the two. Given the team situation with Flacco targeting the position 14 times in Week 2, Freeman is one of the biggest buys of Week 2.
Emmanuel Sanders continued to prove he isn't of this world, both by playing such massive snap shares when most would still be rehabbing but also by posting a 13-11-98-1 line with a ridiculously athletic go-ahead touchdown catch late. I've been slow to come around and have him on zero of my own teams, but he's pretty clearly a feature part of their passing game.
Sanders' aDOT on those targets was just 5.9, and I noted this offseason how his aDOT had fallen for several years in a row even before his Achilles injury.
That helps explain why DaeSean Hamilton doesn't have much of a role, as he's most effective on short-area targets. Courtland Sutton, meanwhile, is locked in to the lead downfield role; he had more air yards (82) on his seven targets than Manny did (77) on his 13. Sutton converted two key fourth downs on the final go-ahead drive and is an important piece of this passing game, but suffers a bit when Flacco is unwilling to take shots downfield.
Noah Fant played a bit less but still ran routes on 65% of dropbacks, and his 4-4-33 line wasn't bad. As an athletic tight end, he's another guy who can be a downfield target, as he showed off on a 24-yard catch in the third quarter. He's certainly someone to keep an eye on.
Signal: Royce Freeman — expanding role, huge upside; Tarik Cohen — back to a normal receiving back role; Mike Davis — relegated to deeper backup role
Noise: Bears receivers — Mitchell Trubisky might not be great, but there will be far more than 120 passing yards to go around most weeks
Falcons 24 – Eagles 20
Snap Notes: Devonta Freeman – 62% (+13%), Ito Smith – 38% (-13%), JJ Arcega-Whiteside – 93% (+86%), Mack Hollins – 85% (+71%), Miles Sanders – 43% (-6%), Darren Sproles – 35% (+5%), Jordan Howard – 22% (-1%)
Key Stat: Miles Sanders — 4 of team's 5 RB green zone touches through two games
Sunday Night Football was weird, as both Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz struggled, combining for five interceptions including a couple pretty ugly ones. The Falcons pulled it out, and there's just not much to talk about with them. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are the clear top two passing options, and both totaled 10 targets, put up over 100 yards and scored.
Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper are full-time players who both also see plenty of targets, and the backfield is a split between Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith. This is essentially what Atlanta was all of last season, just with different running backs.
Freeman did get back to a larger share of the backfield, with Smith still involved. They each had three high-value touches and for the season Freeman has six to Smith's five. Smith got the green zone carry, and we saw him be a vulture of Tevin Coleman at times last year, plus he scored three preseason touchdowns on just 17 rushes, so that's not all that surprising. They like him in close.
Miles Sanders had five high-value touches, including rush attempts from the 8-yard line and 7-yard line on two separate drives. His snap share dipped a bit but he ran three more routes in Week 2, and caught three passes. Darren Sproles was more involved in the passing game this week, leading the backfield with 23 routes, but Sanders has run more routes through the two games combined.
Sanders' output in Week 2 was disappointing and the Eagles are always going to rotate backs to some degree, but he started again, led the backfield in snaps and touches again, and got the high-leverage looks inside the green zone again. He should be viewed similarly to Kerryon Johnson right now but his production hasn't been there so there's still a buying window.
The Eagles lost all of Dallas Goedert, Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson early, which meant a huge uptick in snaps for JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins. Perhaps predictably, Zach Ertz saw 16 targets and frankly disappointed a bit with an 8-72 line, while Nelson Agholor saw 11 of his own and had a strong night with 8-107-1.
If any of that trio misses next week, it will be difficult to handicap this receiving corps. Hollins saw eight targets and outproduced Arcega-Whiteside, but it's Arcega-Whiteside that would be the preferred play if he's again in line for big snaps as a plus prospect who would have made more noise this offseason if he hadn't been buried by a deep pass-catching corps.
Snap Notes: Damion Ratley – 61% (+12%), Nick Chubb – 61% (-9%), D'Ernest Johnson – 39% (+26%), Le'Veon Bell – 90% (-10%), Ty Montgomery – 35% (+28%), Demaryius Thomas – 10% (+10%)
Key Stat: Le'Veon Bell — 10 targets, 10 receptions (19, 16 through two weeks)
The Browns won Monday night, but they didn't look great offensively save for a couple of Odell Beckham highlights. Beckham made a phenomenal one-handed catch early, then scored on an 89-yard catch-and-run late in the third to finish with a huge 10-6-161-1 day.
Nick Chubb was the other offensive star, catching all four targets he saw while running routes on a healthy 55% of dropbacks for the second straight week. With Dontrell Hilliard out, D'Ernest Johnson worked behind Chubb and matched his four targets, but Chubb was out in five more routes. Along with a green zone carry on the first drive (he was stuffed; he scored from 19 yards out later), Chubb finished with five high-value touches. He's a guy I was concerned wouldn't get enough passing-game work, so the routes and the high-value touches he's been seeing have definitely elevated him in my eyes. Of course, Kareem Hunt's return will continue to loom over his late-season Fantasy value all year.
Signs haven't been as positive for Jarvis Landry. Last season, his aDOT (11.9) was more than four yards higher than his career high (7.4) during his time with Miami, and it killed his efficiency. While deeper targets typically mean a lower catch rate, Landry's 54.4% in 2018 was a career low by 12 percentage points, and he also posted the second-lowest YPT of his career, and that's a stat that we would expect to rise with deeper targets. My hope for 2019 was the addition of Beckham would allow Landry to shift back to a role that resembled his time with the Dolphins, but thus far he's seen 14 targets at an aDOT of 11.4 and caught just seven for 99 yards. He's seeing solid volume, but in that role he's tough to start in Fantasy.
Damion Ratley got a little extra run with Rashard Higgins out, while Demetrius Harris picked up snaps after David Njoku suffered a concussion after just 10 snaps. Neither is a Fantasy option.
Without Sam Darnold, the Jets turned to Trevor Siemian, then turned to Luke Falk when Siemian was knocked from the game. They generated just 262 yards of total offense.
Le'Veon Bell looked healthy, and again played a huge snap share. I noted last week how heavily all five starters played for the Jets, and that trend continued this week, with the exception of Quincy Enunwa, who was sent to IR. Each of Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder, and tight end Ryan Griffin played at least 90% of the snaps, and the fifth skill position slot was mostly Josh Bellamy with Ty Montgomery working in a decent amount in two running back sets and a pinch of Demaryius Thomas (seven snaps).
Bell was the star, catching all 10 of his targets and seeing a whopping 31 touches. Through two weeks, Bell is tied with Austin Ekeler for the most high-value touches among the league's backs, and the only issue you can find with his role is the Jets simply aren't very good so the scoring opportunities will be limited. But he's seeing plenty of pass-game work (a whopping 72 routes through two weeks, second behind McCaffrey among the league's RBs), and he looks good on the field after a year away from the game.
Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder each saw six targets and four receptions. That's better for Anderson at his aDOT, and he was able to generate 81 yards, while Crowder is a little more volume-dependent (his four catches went for 40). The quarterback situation will hold them back for a couple of weeks. The Jets do get a Week 4 bye, and it's nice they'll get that out of the way while Darnold isn't fit to play.
Signal: Nick Chubb — strong routes run, passing game involvement; Le'Veon Bell — elite routes run, passing game involvement; Jarvis Landry — aDOT elevated in 2018 range, efficiency lagging
Noise: Baker Mayfield — 325 pass yards, 9.3 YPA (numbers would have looked a lot more pedestrian without Beckham's YAC on the long touchdown, earlier great catch)