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Five Key Experiences from CNN's CITIZEN Conference



. 1 Kushner calls Donald Trump a "black swan"

Donald Trump's son-in-law has a unique perspective on the man he calls "boss." (Kushner is married to Ivanka Trump and serves as Advisor to the President.) If Kushner talks about Trump – and he does not often – you have to be careful.

On Trump and the possibility that the upcoming 2018 intermediate elections for the Republicans could be very bad, Kushnner told CNN's Van Jones, "He's a black swan, he was a black swan all his life."

This is a very interesting way to think about Trump. Black Swan theory, for those who do not know, is the idea ̵
1; first described by scholar and essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb – that there are high-profile, extreme outliers who defy all known wisdom and expectations and in their wake, reshape what is expected can and should.
Here is Taleb's own explanation – from an excerpt from his 2007 book – which constitutes a black swan moment:

"First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past secondly, an extreme effect, and thirdly, despite their outlier status, human nature allows us to make explanations for their occurrence after the fact inventible and predictable. "

There is little doubt that Trump's election in 2016 fits this description. There were ZERO indicators – national poll, swing state poll, fundraising, ad spending, news polls – leading up to the 2016 vote, which suggested that Trump beat Clinton. Then he did it. And in recent years, the political world has been working to reorient itself to explain how – of course! – Trump would always win.

The question is whether Trump, as a black swan, passes to elections where he does not stand for election. Or other elections than 2016. Kushner believes 2018 could be another black swan. We will know it in 15 days.

2. How Nancy Pelosi Sees to Use the Power of Subpoena

Pelosi was VERY cautious about talking in ALL OUTSTANDING AREAS about what the Democrats could do if they regain the majority of the House would. So it was very interesting that when Dana Bash of CNN asked Pelosi how Democrats could use precharge power if they were in the majority in 2019, Pelosi said the following:

"Bias is interesting to use is a great arrow that you have in your quiver when you negotiate about other issues. "

So Pelosi considers the ability to require members of the Trump administration to appear before various house committees. essentially, a negotiating crepe to bring people to the negotiating table in their words.

What is fascinating. Because it suggests that Pelosi does not necessarily want to summon everyone and her brother in the Trump administration – and she said she is skeptical of Trump – but use the ability, if necessary, to get what she is, or at least, wants something of what she wants.

Then the question arises, how do the Republicans in Congress and the Trump government react to Pelosis "Do not make me use this threat against subpoenas"? Do they play a ball, especially considering that a majority of the Democratic House could make their lives very uncomfortable and mess up their work in the next few years? Or call her Pelosi's bluff and see how far she's ready to advance subpoenas?

3. Pelosi Believes She Will Be the Next Speaker When the Democrats Win the House

Pelosi was confident when asked if she would feel good if she led the Democratic faction if their side would win back the majority. "It's up to you to make that decision, but I feel pretty good about where I am," she said of her Democratic colleagues.

She should feel good. While Pelosi has lost the support of the Democrats every two years, the truth is that there is no one to beat them – or, to be honest, get close to us. Both Steny Hoyer (Maryland) and Jim Clyburn (South Carolina), the two men just below the Pelosi in California on the leaderboard, can not beat her. And there is no one at the younger end of the caucus – where there is the greatest dissatisfaction with Pelosi – who can seriously challenge her.

The only scenario in which Pelosi could lose its top spot is when the Democrats get too short in 15 days and remain in the minority. But under this scenario Pelosi could not want to stay anyway.

4th Earl Rahm in the crowd not talking about impeachment

The outgoing mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel, rejected the idea of ​​the Democrats arresting President Trump, claiming that this was " basically with the chin would lead ". "

Emanuel insisted that his party, to win both in 2018 and 2020, need an affirmative message that goes beyond the mere assertion that the Democrats will (or will try) get rid of Trump if they retake the house Senate.

Emanuel's skepticism regarding impeachment positions him on the side of Pelosi, who on Monday and more generally has suggested that Democrats should "strategically" choose their seats as far as Trump is concerned.

The indictment will do little to turn Emanuel into a liberal already deeply skeptical after his tenure as chairman of the Democratic campaign in the last decade, but Emanuel does not care, he does not stand for a third term in 2019 and he did Sherman-esque statement on presidential candidacy in 2020, "I can tell you with 100% certainty that i I'm not interested, "he said. "I've been in the Oval Office for eight years and I have no interest in returning to the White House."

5. Jeff Flake admits that thoughtfulness is dead

Arizona Senator Jeff Flake (R) is in his last days in Congress, forced to retire – at least in part – by a catastrophic decline in his poll numbers that are caused by his frequent Trump criticism.

And while he tried to give the current state of politics a brave face, he did not sound particularly optimistic for the future. As Flake said to CNNs Jake Tapper:

"Take the Kavanaugh thing, for example – but it can happen in almost every case – there is no currency, there is no market for being thoughtful On something like In fact, to go to a hearing with Dr. Ford and Brett Kavanaugh and say, "I'll actually see what comes out in this hearing instead of announcing what you're going to do." [19659003] Flake's broad point is clear : There is no political currency to be thoughtful. Or undecided. Or convincingly based on the facts presented to you. The best way to succeed, according to Flake, is to simply agree with Trump or disagree with everything. There is no room left in the middle.

What is even more depressing? He is 100% correct.


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