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Home / Business / FOMC meeting, July job report, earnings – What you should know in the coming week

FOMC meeting, July job report, earnings – What you should know in the coming week



Stocks are at record highs, but the market will be in a busy week ahead of its moment of truth.

Despite the recent signs of a solid US economy, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut US short-term interest rates for the first time in over a decade this week. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will open its two-day meeting on Tuesday, and Chairman Powell will hold a press conference Wednesday after the political decision.

Economists agree that the Fed will lower interest rates for the upcoming session Although recent economic data signaled a strong economy.

"We expect the FOMC to lower its benchmark interest rates by 25bp at the July meeting, lowering the benchmark rate to 2.00-2.25%," Nomura wrote in a note Thursday. "Strengthening recent data and comments from FOMC participants generally supports a cut of 25 basis points in the next week, as opposed to 50 basis points. We do not believe that the economy is on the verge of recession. "

Although most economists expect a cut of 25bps, some have not ruled out the possibility of a 50bp cut next week. "We continue to demand a communication speed reduction of 50 basis points, not the data rate. The June FOMC has changed our view of the Fed, UBS wrote Wednesday in a note. "Chair Powell wants to cut interest rates significantly. In public comments, he and the core of the FOMC have ignored or downplayed heavy data and highlighted weak data.

Although GDP data released on Friday were stronger than expected, this has probably compounded the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. "What does all this mean for the Fed? Support for the cut, "said Merrill Lynch on Friday in a note. "Recent data and revisions have shown that growth momentum is weaker, especially the investments they are most concerned about, and that PCE core inflation is somewhat weaker."

Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, speaking at a dinner following the conference "Bretton Woods: 75 Years Later – Thinking About the Next 75 Years" at the Banque de France headquarters in Paris on July 16, 2019. (ERIC PIERMONT / AFP / Getty Images)

According to GDP data, market watchers will get an impetus on the US labor market when the July job report is released on Friday. Economists interviewed by Bloomberg estimate that the US economy closed down 170,000 non-agricultural workers during the month, after 224,000 new jobs were added in June. The unemployment rate is likely to have remained constant at 3.7%.

"Both our official forecast and private payroll indicate a certain slowdown in recruitment in July compared to June, when the number of non-agricultural workers increased by 224,000 in recent months," said the Bank of America. "Should our forecast prove correct, the 3-month moving average of employment growth among non-farm workers would slow from 171,000 in June to 155,000 in July." This year may see an additional interest rate cut.

In the meantime, the winning season continues. Just over 40% of S & P 500 companies have published results so far. This week, another third of S & P companies will publish the results. So far, the earnings season has been better than expected, which is why the major reports planned for this week will add weight.

Investors will focus on reports from Beyond Meat, Apple, Procter & Gamble, Under Armor, AMD, GE, Dunkin, Qualcomm, Square, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

In addition, this week's trade will once again be in the limelight, with representatives from the US and China meeting for the first time in two months.

Result calendar

<p class = "Canvas Atomic Canvas Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Monday: Sanofi (SNY) before market opening, AK Steel (AKS), Beyond Meat (BYND), Del Taco (TACO), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) after market close "data-reactid =" 39 "> Monday: Sanofi (SNY) before market opening; AK Steel (AKS), Beyond Meat (BYND), Del Taco (TACO), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) after market close

<p class = "Canvas Atom Canvas Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – -sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Tuesday: Altria (MO), ConocoPhillips (COP), Dr. Horton (DHI), Eli Lilly (LLY), Grubhub (GRUB), Incyte (INCY), MasterCard (MA), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Ralph Lauren (RL), Under Armor (UAA) before the market opens, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Apple (AAPL), Electronic Arts (EA), Gilead (GILD), Mondelez (MDLZ) after market close "data-reactid =" 40 "> Tuesday: Altria ( MO), ConocoPhillips (COP), DR Horton (DHI), Eli Lilly (LLY), Grubhub (GRUB), Incyte (INCY), MasterCard (MA), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Procter & Gamble (PG ), Ralph Lauren (RL), Under Armor (UAA) before market opening; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Apple (AAPL), Electronic Arts (EA), Gilead (GILD) and Mondelez (MDLZ) after Market Closing

<p class = "canvas – atom canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Wednesday: Credit Suisse (CS), Dine Brands (DIN , Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), General Electric (GE), Humana (HUM), Molson Coors (TAP), Spotify (SPOT) ahead of market opening, Qualcomm (QCOM), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Twilio (TWLO) after market close "data-reactid =" 45 "> Wednesday: Credit Suisse (CS), Dine Brands (DIN), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), General Electric (GE), Humana (HUM), Molson Coors ( TAP), Spotify (SPOT) before market opening; Qualcomm (QCOM), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Twilio (TWLO) after market close

<p class = "Canvas Atom Canvas Text Mb (1.0em) Mb ( 0) – sm Mt (0.8em) –sm "type =" text "content =" Thursday: Cigna (CI), Clorox (CLX), Crocs (CROX), Dunkin Brands (DNKN), General Motors (GM), Kellogg (K), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Shopify (SHOP), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Verizon (VZ), Wayfair (W), Wingstop (WING), Yeti (YETI), YUM Brands (YUM) before the market opens; Aphria (APHA), Pinterest (PINS), Square (SQ), US Steel (X) after market close "data-reactid =" 46 "> Thursday: Cigna (CI), Clorox (CLX), Crocs (CROX), Dunkin Brands (DNKN), General Motors (GM), Kellogg (K), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Shopify (SHOP), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Verizon (VZ), Wayfair (W), Wingstop (WING), Yeti (YETI), YUM Brands (YUM) before market opening; Aphria (APHA), Pinterest (PINS), Square (SQ), US Steel (X) after market close

<p class = "Canvas Atom Canvas Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Friday: Arconic (ARNC), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobile (XOM), Ferrari (RACE), Honda (HMC), Restaurant Brands (QSR) before market opening "data-reactid =" 47 "> Friday: Arconic (ARNC), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Ferrari (RACE), Honda (HMC), Restaurant Brands (QSR) before Market Opening

Economic Calendar

<p class = "Canvas Atom Canvas Text M b (1,0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, July (-5.0 expected, – 12.1 earlier) "data-reactid =" 49 "> Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, July (-5.0 expected, -12.1 earlier)

<p class =" Canvas Atomic Canvas Text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Tuesday: Personal Income, June (0.4% expected d, before 0, 5%); Personal expenses, June (0.3% expected, 0.4% before); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (125.0 expected, 121.5 ahead) "data-reactid =" 50 "> Tuesday: Personal Income, June (0.4% expected, 0.5% before Personal expenditure, June (0.3% expected, 0.4% earlier), Conference Board Consumer Confidence, July (125.0 expected, 121.5 earlier)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas- text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8 em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Application, Week of July 26 (- 1.9% earlier); ADP Employment Change, July (150,000 expected, 102,000 ahead); Employment cost index, 2nd quarter (0.7% expected, 0.7% before); MNI Chicago PMI, July (51.0 expected, 49.7 earlier) "data-reactid =" 51 "> Wednesday: MBA mortgage application, week ending July 26 (-1.9% earlier); ADP Employment Change, Employment Change expected to be 150,000, 102,000 earlier), employment cost index, Q2 (0.7% expected, 0.7% earlier), MNI Chicago PMI, July (51.0 expected, 49.7 earlier)

< p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week by July 27 (212,000 expected, 206,000 earlier); Continuing Claims, week to July 20 (1.676 million ago); Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Week of July 28 (before 63.7); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, July (before 50.0); ISM Manufacturing, July (52.0 expected, 51.7 ahead); ISM prices paid, July (49.0 expected, 47.9 before); Construction investment compared to June (0.4% expected, -0.8% earlier) "data-reactid =" 52 "> Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week to July 27 (212,000 expected, 206,000 earlier)); Continuing Claims, week-end July 20 (1.676 million ahead); Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week-end July 28 (63.7 ahead); Markit US Manufacturing PMI, July (50.0 pre); ISM Manufacturing , July (52.0 expected, 51.7 pre), Paid ISM prices, July (49.0 expected, 47.9 before), construction spending month-on-month, June (0.4% expected, -0.8% before)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1,0 em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0,8em) – sm" type = "text" content = " Friday : change in payroll for non-farmers in July (170,000 expected, 224,000 earlier); Change in payroll in manufacturing, July (3,000 expected, 17,000 earlier); Unemployment rate in July (3.7% expected, 3.7% before); Trade balance, June (- $ 54.6 billion expected, – $ 55.5 billion previously); Factory orders, June (0.7% expected, -0.7% before); Durable goods orders, June (before 2.0%); University of Michigan sentiment, July (98.5 expected, 98.4 earlier) "data-reactid =" 53 "> Friday: Change in payrolls outside agriculture, July (170,000 expected, 224,000 earlier), changes in payroll in manufacturing, July (3,000 expected, 17,000 earlier), unemployment rate in July (3.7% expected, 3.7% earlier), trade balance in June (- 54.6 billion USD expected – $ 55.5 billion earlier), factory orders in June (0.7% expected, -0.7% ahead), durable goods orders, June (down 2.0%), mood at the University of Michigan , July (expected 98.5%, before 98.4%)

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" Heidi Chung is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung . "data-reactid =" 55 "> Heidi Chung is a reporter at Yahoo Finance Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung ].

<p class =" Canvas Atom Canvas text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm "type =" text "content =" More by Heidi: "data-reactid =" 56 "> More by Heidi:

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