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For President Trump it's 2016 again



If you have not looked up recently, President Trump is everywhere. He fights at a hectic pace throughout the country. His White House has limited himself to news briefings, but he gives interviews with the bushel. He seems to be gaggling non-stop with reporters. He can not stop talking.

These days have started to feel like those in the final weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign, when Trump showed more energy and endurance competing with Hillary Clinton, showing that he was willing to take risks with his plans and even fake in a head or two. He knew the electorate and the states he needed to win and relentlessly followed them. He does the same today.

No president in modern memory has done what Trump is doing. Despite a submission that has been under water since the beginning of his presidency, he has decided to decide on him in the coming interim elections. Not that they have not already been, but few Presidents have so willingly personified as this one has. It is another example of Trump as a rule breaker.

He has also gone back to basics with his message, one that has been developed to both ignite and stimulate. He meets all the cultural hot-buttons that have split this country even more than before his election. He talks about crime and law and order, immigration caravans that threaten borders, judges and of course the economy. He denigrates the Democrats at every turn with speeches about mobs and violent protests.

He ventures into a dangerous territory without remorse or apology. On Thursday evening in Montana he repeated performances of some of his rallies in 2016, where he encouraged followers to be physically fit with protesters in the audience. This time, he praised Republican Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.), Who was convicted on the eve of special elections in 2017 for attacking Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs. "Anyone who can do a body slam is my kind of …" Trump said, breaking off his verdict while the audience agreed.


President Trump speaks at a campaign meeting in Missoula, Mont. Thursday (Lido Vizzutti / AP)

At the time of his conviction (which included a suspended sentence), Gianforte said he was not proud of what he had done had, but "was ready to go on." Trump obviously is not ready. "He's my type," Trump exclaimed on Thursday evening, completing everything by imitating someone and slamming someone else on the floor.

Trump's praise for someone who had attacked a reporter came at a time of international outrage over the assassination of journalists and Washington Post contributing columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. After Khashoggi's disappearance, Trump even hesitated to criticize the Saudis, as Turkish officials claimed they had evidence of a cruel death at the hands of a Saudi hit squad.

Since then he has been warned of serious consequences for the Saudis. This warning still needs to be executed. In the meantime, Trump's praise for Gianforte reveals his contempt for the news media and that in a campaign he is ready to say anything he thinks to win, which in this case means firing Republicans to ensure so many (19659012) When White House officials pointed out at the end of the summer that Trump almost always wanted to move out of Washington in the fall, there was skepticism. He finally has a country to lead. But the appeal of being the center of attention is intoxicating, and no president was more eager to put himself at the center of attention. Trump also knows instinctively that in a polarized country he can do more than anyone in his party to oppose an agitated Democratic Party.

In all midterm elections, especially in the first term of a new president, it is about the inhabitants of the Oval Office. But this was destined to be more than others because of Trump. Gary Jacobson, an Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of California at San Diego, has observed that this will be "the most far-reaching and divisive national referendum on any government, at least since the Great Depression."

In a Newspaper Jeff Jacobson prepared for the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association on the weekend of Labor Day and outlined the extent to which the trends in party loyalty and the relationship between the president's approval and the Elective behavior help to make this happen. In his analysis of polls in late summer, he noted that the Democrats showed degrees of loyalty consistent with a Democratic poll, "but Republicans are almost as loyal in general opinion polls as they were in 2010 and 2014 [they] than in earlier Democratic ones "Wave Years". "

Jacobson also noted that the president's approval had had a long-lasting effect on voting in the midterm elections, adding that Trump's ratings had" so far had a greater impact than those of all predecessors. "Republicans do not vote he agrees with the president on most issues, "he writes." They also represent virtually every important question about their performance and character, accepting even the most dubious proposals. "

There are some signs of this during the last month The environment has improved for the Republicans, Democrats remain favorites to take control Over the house, but some strategists say that profit margins in individual races have tightened compared to a month ago, so that many close races in the last two weeks before election day are imminent. Meanwhile, the hopes of the Democrats to take control of the Senate have declined; The Republicans are talking about getting a seat or even a few more.

The ultimate problem for the Republicans in the struggle for the House is that they play in so many places defense, with nine or ten times as many GOPs risky seats compared to the seats of the Democratic Party. In addition, democratic challengers prove to be good candidates. And they are extremely well financed. This puts the Democrats in a position to win a majority in parliament, although it is not clear how much more than the 23 they need. There is no irrational exuberance among many democratic strategists today.

A combination of factors seems to have changed the climate. One of them is a consolidation of the Republican vote, which was foreseeable on the basis of the Jacobson analysis and the patterns of the past elections. Another reason is the stoppage time of the Supreme Court's confirmation battle Brett M. Kavanaugh, which gave the republican base an energy boost and possibly had a special effect on boosting white men with no university degrees who remain the Trump's hard core

Another factor but could be the president himself, his ability to shape the conversation and the electorate. What worries some Democrats is that in typical elections the enthusiasm is on one side and on the other. This year, the enthusiasm among the Democrats and some groups has increased significantly. But the corresponding decline in enthusiasm among the Republicans does not take place. If GOP voters are not as concentrated as the Democrats, they are not as strong as some Democrats had hoped.

The President says again and again, he is on the ballot this year, which is figuratively correct. He also says he will not take responsibility if Republicans lose the house. Apparently, if there's bad news on election day, the money will be stopped in whatever it does to bear the burden of the election.


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