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Get ready for a new North Korean missile test



N North Korea is impatient that US and international sanctions will remain in place. In the coming months we should expect at least one new North Korean missile test.

In an aggressive statement on Thursday, North Korea warned, "The United States must now … recognize the exact meaning of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula … means the elimination of all nuclear threats, not only from there to the south and north, but also from adjacent areas of the Korean Peninsula. "

The North Koreans here complain of US Guam nuclear strike forces and naval ballistic missile submarines in Western Pacific waters. The key point, however, is that North Korea knows that the US will never remove its submarine troops from the Pacific. They know that their nuclear threat to America and the threat posed by China and Russia require the idea of ​​an effective deterrent. So why, when North Korea knows that its demands are absurd, does it make them?

Well, to get the attention of the US. Kim Jong Un and his hardliner head Kim Yong Chol are exacerbated by the Trump government's unwillingness to dance to the traditional Pyongyang diplomatic waltz. That is, Trump's reluctance to reduce sanctions and invest money in North Korea, against his slight concessions. Kim had hoped that Trump's active praise of him in recent months would meet with functional concessions from the US.

However, Trump Pyongyang (something) has been disappointed by the reluctance of the US to impose new sanctions on North Korea. Instead, the president has taken a cautious course between building confidence and demanding North Korea's move toward denuclearization and the dismantling of its intercontinental ballistic missile program.

The problem for Kim, then, is that the North Korean economy will continue to operate in crisis mode without the kind of sanction relief that will allow foreign capital inflows and easier world trade. It is only a real salvation that violations of the sanctions embargo are increasingly common in China and Russia. In one way or another Kim has to change that status. But with the Trump administration rightly unwilling to copy South Korea and openly appease Kim's regime, Kim has only two options left. Either he can demonstrably dismantle his missile and nuclear sites and receive US concessions. Or he can return to the 201

7 Brinkmans and fire new missile tests to persuade the US to make new concessions.

Regrettably, I believe that Kim will choose the second option as it can improve his ICBM beating ability. Remember, Kim's scientists, despite having suspended the rocket tests, have been constantly working to improve the systems for the delivery, the target system, and the survivability of his reentry vehicles in the warhead. As an extension, these improvements need to be tested if they want to take on a new threat. That brings us to my concern about the tests that will come early next year.

Trump should overcome this threat. The president should be clear to Kim and his patrons Xi and Putin, what happens when North Korea conducts a new missile test. This means that any new test may irrevocably break the diplomatic process. In addition to cyber attacks, these new sanctions include Chinese banks supporting Kim's regime. And if North Korea continues to choose games, the B-2s are ready.

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