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Global warming is not cosmic




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" I've heard that sunspots are the main cause of temperature fluctuations. "What about the Grand Solar minimum? "We are entering a new ice age based on orbital parameters. "" Cosmic radiation heats up the earth! "

In the online community, there is no shortage of people who are passionate about cosmic declarations to take into account the observed change in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Why is this? Is there a kernel of truth to their arguments? Let us separate the facts from the fiction.

The earth is a celestial body whose temperature is due to the remaining heat left over from the formation of the planet, the radioactive decay, the energy input from the sun and from greenhouse gases in the atmosphere heat released from inside the planet and its radioactive decay essentially unchanged. The remaining heat is therefore a function of the solar energy (and the extra values) olar) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Sun photo from Wikipedia. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#/media/File:Neapolitan_Sunset.jpg[19659004(Wikipedia-User:JessieEastland

Sunspots: Solar energy grows and worsens due to internal changes in solar energy over multiple time scales. The best known is the 11-year sunspot cycle. At the end of the cycle (we are currently at the end of the cycle) solar energy at the surface of the earth drops by ~ 0.1%. In one study, a warming of the oceans by 0.1 ° C per 1 Wm -2 change in solar energy was found. The difference between the maximum and the minimum of a solar cycle is 1-2 Wm -2 . This difference is not nothing, but it is far from explaining the observed temperature rise in the last century. Over longer periods of time, the solar power changes at intervals of more than 100 years. These changes represent important inputs to the climate prior to industrialization.

Magnified photograph of sunspots.

Alan Friedman (NASA Goddard)

Orbital Variations: Within science, there is little doubt that orbital variations are the key variable that has forced the earth into and out of the ice ages in the last 2 million years. Changes in the eccentricity of the earth's orbit, the inclination angle of the axis and the orientation of the axis lead to significant changes in the solar energy that is received at the earth's surface. Milutin Milankovitch discovered this relationship over 100 years ago. The cycles of orbital and axial changes take place on time scales of tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand years – much longer than human or civilizational timescales.

What about cosmic rays? Speculation about the effects of cosmic rays on cloud formation attracted much attention a decade ago. Since then, more studies have filled the idea with cold water.

What about magnetic reversals? This is the case when the north and south magnetic poles reverse polarity on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years. Apart from the fact that there is no theoretical connection with the climate, the repetition interval is much too long to explain an observed variation.

LOL.

Most of the warming is due to greenhouse gases emitted by human activities. Period. There is an overwhelming consensus in the scientific community on this point.

There is an appeal to associate our warming climate with forces that are completely out of our control. A) releases us from any responsibility to cause the observed warming, and b) gives some assurance that we will eventually fall back into a state of equilibrium. For a few hundred years there has been a philosophical debate about whether science and religion are compatible or mutually exclusive – or somewhere in between. Ironically, those who place global warming attribution outside Earth's borders use the same arguments used by creationists and other religion-based predictors. Because the causes are in the sky and we are at the mercy of forces beyond our control.

"I've heard that sunspots are the main cause of temperature fluctuations." "What about the Grand Solar minimum? "We are on the way to a new ice age based on orbital parameters." "Cosmic radiation heats up the earth!"

There is no shortage of people in the online community who are passionate about cosmic explanations for the observed change in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution: why is that? Is there a core of truth in their arguments? Let us separate the facts from the fiction.

The earth is a celestial body whose temperature is due to the residual heat. Due to the formation of the planet, the radioactive decay, the energy input of the sun and the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the heat released inside the planet and the radioactive decay in the atmosphere Substantially unchanged Residual heat is therefore a function of sun inputs (and extra solar energy) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Sun photo from Wikipedia. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#/media/File:Neapolitan_Sunset.jpg[19659004UsersofJessieEastland

Sunspots: Solar energy is growing and fluctuating due to internal changes in the sun's energy output. The best known is the 11-year sunspot cycle. At the end of the cycle (we are currently at the end of the cycle) solar energy at the surface of the earth drops by ~ 0.1%. In one study, a warming of the oceans by 0.1 ° C per 1 Wm -2 change in solar energy was found. The difference between the maximum and the minimum of a solar cycle is 1-2 Wm -2 . This difference is not nothing, but it is far from explaining the observed temperature rise in the last century. Over longer periods of time, the solar power changes at intervals of more than 100 years. These changes represent important inputs to the pre-industrial climate.

Magnified photograph of sunspots.

Alan Friedman

Orbital Variations: Within science, there is little doubt that orbital variations are the key variable that has forced the Earth into and out of the ice during the last 2 million years. Changes in the eccentricity of the earth's orbit, the inclination angle of the axis and the orientation of the axis lead to significant changes in the solar energy that is received at the earth's surface. Milutin Milankovitch discovered this relationship over 100 years ago. The cycles of orbital and axial changes take place on time scales of tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand years – much longer than human or civilizational timescales.

What about cosmic rays? Speculation about the effects of cosmic rays on cloud formation attracted much attention a decade ago. Since then, more studies have filled the idea with cold water.

What about magnetic reversals? This is the case when the north and south magnetic poles reverse polarity on time scales of hundreds of thousands of years. Apart from the fact that there is no theoretical connection with the climate, the repetition interval is much too long to explain an observed variation.

What about Supernovae? LOL.

Most of the warming is due to greenhouse gases emitted by human activities. Period. There is an overwhelming consensus in the scientific community on this point.

There is an appeal to associate our warming climate with forces that are completely out of our control. A) releases us from any responsibility to cause the observed warming, and b) gives some assurance that we will eventually fall back into a state of equilibrium. For a few hundred years there has been a philosophical debate about whether science and religion are compatible or mutually exclusive – or somewhere in between. Ironically, those who place global warming attribution outside Earth's borders use the same arguments used by creationists and other religion-based predictors. Because the causes are in the sky and we are at the mercy of forces beyond our control.


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