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Harry Kazianis: Trump wise to avoid a devastating war with Iran after an attack on Saudi Arabia



There is an old adage that wars are easy to manage but difficult to overcome. President Trump understands this because he wisely resisted the temptation to launch a military strike against Iran after this nation launched a rocket and drone attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities last week.

When Trump ran for president, he promised the American people not to end up in endless conflicts in the Middle East where thousands of US military personnel were killed and wounded in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The fighting began in 2001 in Afghanistan and in 2003 in Iraq and is still ongoing in both countries. The US armed forces have also fought to a lesser extent in Syria against terrorist targets.

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US. Taxpayers spent billions of dollars on these wars, but our commitment has done little or nothing to make our nation safer.

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And Trump is old enough to remember the Vietnam War. This began as a small conflict with US advisers and ended with more than 58,000 US military personnel killed and more than 1

50,000 injured. Trump does not want anything to that extent happening in a war with Iran.

The President announced Friday that he is imposing new sanctions on the Iranian National Bank in response to the attack on Saudi Arabia. And Pentagon officials have announced that they will send several hundred additional US troops and air defense supplies to Saudi Arabia to help the Saudis defend their nation against future attacks. He assumes that another step could trigger a war with Iran, which would have devastating consequences for the lives and treasures of the United States.

Trump would be entitled to strike Iran, which has recently become like a rogue race looking for a fight. Tehran has attacked oil tankers, shot down a US drone and continued to assist civil war terrorists in Syria, Yemen and on the borders of Israel. Iran remains the world's largest sponsor of terrorism.

Trump would be entitled to strike Iran, which has recently behaved like a rogue in search of a fight.

I suspect that Trump, despite all the reasons for that, if he beats Iran, he holds, unless his back is completely against the wall, because he understands that Iran could trigger a bloody war that would not easy to win.

"Getting into Iran would be a very simple decision," said Trump at the White House on Friday. "Most people thought I would get in within two seconds" after the attack on Saudi Arabia. "I think I am very reserved."

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warned on Friday that a US or Saudi Arabian military attack on his country would lead to a comprehensive war Seriously.

What would a war with Iran look like?

I have "fought" Iran several times against Iran during my national security work at the Washington Center for National Interest in Simulations In 2013, a nonpartisan expert group met twice a year to test out scenarios in the event of an outbreak of war.

In one scenario, Tehran is upset over a surge in US forces in the region to counter recent Iranian military advances in relation to new scenarios of submarines and missile platforms. Tehran decides to push back and test a mid-range missile salvo with an upcoming ICBM test in the coming months.

When Iran decides a few days later to test a second missile charge – with missiles flying near the US Missile Defense in the Persian Gulf – The US is destroying the Iranian missiles in the middle of the flight to teach Tehran a lesson.

Iran then declares a "marine exclusion zone" in which it allegedly does no exercises. The problem: The exclusion zone covers the Strait of Hormuz, through which millions of barrels of oil flow daily. Tehran explains that the strait will be closed during the exercise for the next month.

Global economic panic arises. Only in the first hours of closure did oil prices rise by 10 percent. In response, America calls the so-called end of exercise in 24 hours. If not, US forces will evacuate the territory of naval or military forces in that area.

How does Iran react? Tehran senses that America is bluffing and doubling, increasing the number of naval and missile forces in the region. In addition, Iran is testing several new ballistic missiles that could theoretically sink a US naval ship.

America then hits hard and makes sure that Washington uses such a missile to maximize its use of military force escalation. US forces in the region are attacking with a series of cruise missiles fired by offshore US nuclear submarines. The attacks are focused on clearing the straits of the Iranian fleet and damaging Tehran's nuclear and missile infrastructure.

At first glance, the step seems to be a resounding success. But then Iran decides that America will have to pay a price for its actions, with an attack on the symbol of the US military power, an aircraft carrier of the US Navy operating in the region.

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Then it gets worse. Iran knows that a massive US counterattack is imminent, and Tehran decides to take all-in action to prevent the US naval forces in the region from retreating to the negotiating table.

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What should America do now when US men and US women die in battle? Since the simulation had fixed time limits, we never found out. With only a five-day window in our war game and Iran's last train, time has passed.

Over the years, I have repeated this and other similar scenarios and all end in a similar way: No clear victory for the US without deploying more troops to destroy Tehran's military capabilities in a conflict lasting months or even years could.

Would a real war like the simulation take place? Nobody can say for sure, but it could be easy.

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Our simulations were to become a huge warning flag in front of President Trump and his military advisor. A military attack on Iran could quickly get out of hand and trigger a long and costly war.

My advice to President Trump: Think carefully about what you are doing. And if you decide to beat Iran, you strike with overwhelming force.

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