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How to Argue About Whether Democrats wants to win back the house




House minority leader Nancy Pelosi campaigns in Florida in October. (Wilfredo Lee / AP)

With Election Day less than two weeks away, the battle for control of the House of Representatives is suddenly tightening. Washington insiders were saying as early as July that Democrats appeared more likely than not to pick up the majority.

Democratic operatives are aware that they are tightening, but say they are still confident that their chances to win the house are over first time in eight years is as good as ever. They have the biggest battlefield in a decade, making them competitive in traditionally republican seats from Maine to New Mexico. Brett M. Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.

"Our prospects are much better than they were a month ago." said one Republican working to help keep GOP control of the house. [Gbp's way down the home stretch.]

So it wants?

HELPING REPUBLICANS, polls are tightening in the most competitive races: A new Washington Post-Shar School survey shows 48 House districts President Trump won in 2016 that could decide the fate of the house majority, the candidates are polling about evenly. That means Republicans are just as likely to win as democrats in these races.

But: Democratic operatives say that's actually a good thing. It also means that their candidates are competitive in traditionally conservative districts such as Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and Utah.

Put another way, Democrats need to 23 Hillary Clinton won.

HELPING DEMOCRATS, overall, voters prefer them: By 10 percentage points, according to a post analysis of recent polls, they may prefer voters a Democrat to represent them in Congress or a Republican. Democrats flip the House.

But: A recent NBC / Wall Street journal poll finds Democrats' popularity is being driven by voters who are likely to vote in midterm elections, specifically Latinos and younger people.

A Gallup poll from late September, 19659012]

And a Post analysis of The lowest-voting counties in the United States finds that they are majority non-residents and include a significant Hispanic population.


(Washington Post)

Democrats' House campaign committee is investing $ 30 million, an unprecedented amount

HELPING REPUBLICANS, voter enthusiasm is now on both sides: All election cycle, Democrats have enjoyed a palpable, remarkable level of voter enthusiasm.

During the primaries Democrats across the country had record turnout and put up a record numbers of candidates running. In Texas, Rep. Pete Sessions, in Texas, has put one of the most powerful Republicans in the risk of losing his seat to a well-funded Democratic challenger who has never held office.

But: There's evidence that the Kavanaugh drama is a Republican voters. The NBC-WSJ poll finds that Democrats and Republicans are both highly enthusiastic about voting.

The Post-School Survey found that 6 out of 10 likely to vote for each party the court. That sounds like a wash between both sides, but it's a boost in voter enthusiasm for Republicans nonetheless.

A republican involved in the midterms described it this way: "Republicans who have not been voting for Republicans this time Democrats' behavior was absurd and ridiculous and thought, 'That's not what I want.' "

This is why the president's party typically sits in Congress in the very next election. This year, Republicans' problems could be exacerbated because they control all of Washington.


But: Trump is.

But: Trump is relatively popular, for him. His most recent rating rating is 44 percent, according to a weekly Gallup survey, which is about as high as ever. The economy is also chugging along, with September marking the lowest rate of unemployment in decades, and there are no major international disasters.

Trump does not seem popular enough to help Republicans with all the other electoral struggles facing his party right now. Aaron Blake has recently calculated, presidents with Trump's approval rating


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