After 105 years of age, the risk of death slows for people, plateaus, and even decreases in some cases, according to a new study.
The research, published Friday in the journal Science, suggests that a maximum fixed life still needs to be achieved – and that human longevity is actually increasing.
"The increasing numbers of exceptionally long-lived people and the fact that their mortality rates in cohorts are declining – the mortality plateau or the delaying of age, if it appears – strongly suggest that longevity will continue over time and that a limit, if any, has not been reached, "the researchers wrote in the study. Credible theories about the limits of human life require solid data on mortality in extreme age, according to the study. But given the few centenarians, good data are not known to the researchers, said Joop de Beer, an aging and longevity researcher at the Dutch Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in The Hague, who was not involved in the study.
The question of whether the limits of human mortality are rising remains controversial.
"There is a big discussion about the human lifespan, and some experts say the likelihood of dying increases with age, even in old age," said de Beer. "And other researchers say that the likelihood of dying in old age wanes in old age and would mean that people can live into old age, that there is no hard limit."
This research "provides convincing evidence that the latter hypothesis is the true one, and it is consistent with what I found, "said de Beer.
The new study has shown that the risk of death increases with age – at age 50, your mortality rate is three times higher than ours 30 – Once we reach the age of 105, this risk is 50%, which means that you have a 50% chance to live another year.
"At this moment, the oldest person in the world, a Japanese woman, is 117 years old She has a 50% chance of living until she is 118. And once she is 118, she has a 50-odd chance %, 119, "de Beer said.
The study examined 3,836 Italians aged 105 years and over in 2015. Inaccuracies resulting from poor data have hindered earlier research. However, the quality of the data in this study, according to the research team, allowed a close examination of extreme mortality.
Before the 19th century, average life expectancy ranged between 30 and 40 years. However, tremendous advances in technology and medicine have prolonged life expectancy. Global life expectancy was 72 in 2016.
Jeanne Calment, a French woman, still holds the record for the oldest person: she was 122 when she died in 1997.
The new research shows a plateau in the risk of Englisch: bio-pro.de/en/region/stern/magazin/…1/index.html 105 – a trend that suggests that human longevity could increase over time.
More research with a larger sample is needed to attract some of the scientific community to de Beer. This could take a long time
"The only thing we can do is wait until the number of centenarians increases, especially in Japan," said de Beer. "You would expect more people to reach the age of 110, but it will take some time, so I'm afraid the discussion will not be decided in the next few years."