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Hurricane Dorian Forecast: Increasing storm can hit Florida or the southeast coast

Hurricane Dorian is a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph, but not satisfied with staying so long. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Dorian will become a "major" category 3 or higher hurricane by Friday morning, headed for a potential landing in Florida or elsewhere along the east coast by Monday, possibly as category 4.

Dodging Dorian, who is tethering Saint Thomas as he travels through the Virgin Islands in Puerto Rico, marches further northwest (at 21 km / h), approximately 370 miles east of the southeastern Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center predicts that Dorian will do so Enter soon a region that is most conducive to intensification, with very warm water and favorable winds at higher elevations. This area is an atmospheric tinder box that could assist in rapid intensification.

"All intensity models predict that Dorian will soon become stronger again, and it could lead to a rapid intensification," warned the National Hurricane Center in its Thursday morning bulletin. Experimental weather models indicate that Dorian's likelihood of rapid intensification is more than twice that of a typical storm. The most likely time for this is Thursday through Friday afternoon overnight. So do not be surprised if a strong hurricane lurks in the Atlantic until Friday evening.

While Dorian approaches the Florida coast over the Labor According to the Hurricane Center's official forecast for the weekend, it is predicted that the top winds will reach 130 miles per hour. This is a Category 4 storm that may cause "catastrophic" damage.

"The risk of devastating winds with hurricanes along the East Coast and Florida peninsula too late This weekend and early next week, precipitation continues to rise, though it is too early to determine where the strongest winds will occur.

In addition to the wind, heavy rains from parts of the storm are expected to develop from the Bahamas and Florida by the end of this weekend until early next week.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) declared Wednesday afternoon a state of emergency "to ensure local governments and emergency management agencies have plenty of time, resources and flexibility to prepare. He published an article on Twitter .

What We Are Convinced

This storm is likely to intensify, as there is not much that keeps Dorian from fast to a top-tier hurricane. All of the areas it impacts are likely to be subject to destructive winds in excess of 100 miles per hour, storm surges and the risk of heavy rainfall flooding.

We also know that Dorian will need a few days before there is a potential turnaround country, so that the forecasters have time to refine the prospects, and people have time to prepare. Since Dorian is a small hurricane, minor path shifts – only on the order of 80 km or less – can mean the difference between strong winds and a light breeze. Brian McNoldy, Capital Weather Gang's tropical weather expert, said the average track error of the National Hurricane Center was three times that high – 150 miles. There is a lot at stake here.

We are also confident that if the scenarios shown by some models trigger a major Florida hurricane from east to east In the west, the tidal wave, which is the storm-induced rise of seawater over normally dry land, would be punctuated by astronomical floods known as the "King Tides", even on sunny days.

The unknowns

But will it reach the land? That's the menacing question, and the uncertainty remains unusually high. While it is very likely that the mainland of the United States will experience a Dorian-associated hurricane this is not certain. There is still considerable dissemination in the modeling of Dorian's later trail.

It boils down to the strength of the Bermuda high north and east of Dorian. This blocking weather system serves as a guardrail and steers Dorian around his western flank. A weaker Bermuda high could allow Dorian to turn north before she lands in Florida, which affects Georgia and the Carolinas, but may only line the coast. There are a number of weather models that point to this potential.

However, a stronger high would, if still possible, pose a far more serious threat to Florida and / or the Carolina.

The official national hurricane forecast predicts Dorian to reach category 4 strength as we approach the east coast of Florida from Monday night to Tuesday. This is a slightly slower time than forecast on Wednesday as the residents have more time to prepare, but also more time for a New England weather system and the high pressure area to possibly lure the storm further north or into the sea.

Another possible scenario is that Dorian is slowing or slowing down, When it approaches Florida embraces the coast or meanders over several flood cycles just offshore. "One of the most worrying parts of the # Dorian track is how slow it will be near Florida," Rick Knabb tweeted to the Weather Channel hurricane expert. "Storm surges and wind are likely to be life threatening, but we are also preparing for a flood disaster inland somewhere in the southeastern United States, which has cost the most lives in recent years."

The main messages

There is still considerable uncertainty with this storm gauge forecast.

We are still not within the timeframe to tell exactly where Dorian is going to hit – if there's a US landslide at all. We will have a clearer picture from Friday to Saturday as we approach the actual event. Several models suggest that Dorian could indeed cross the Florida Peninsula and reappear in the Gulf of Mexico and then regain strength. This would be a disturbing scenario and model trend to watch.

Anyone coming from South Florida through the Carolinas should closely watch Dorian's progress and prepare for a potentially destructive storm.

As the National Weather Service in Melbourne. Fla. Wrote: "There is no better time than now to review your plan to prepare for hurricanes." You should also call inland residents and talk about visiting Labor Day Weekend if they are forced or encouraged to evacuate. This is especially true for those along the Atlantic coast of Florida as well as the coast of Carolina.

Cyclones are physically as well as emotionally exhausting, especially if you have small children. With power outages and unavoidable fears in mind, it's a smart move to have distractions or activities like board games, craft projects, or books when you're in Dorian's crosshair to weather the storm. Check into your supermarket on Thursday or Friday to include these or other personal items in your Storm Gear.

Use this "calm before the storm" to prepare for all, regardless of whether or not you stay, which ultimately depends on the prognosis for possible outcomes and prepare yourself for anything that happens in the end.

Dorian in historical perspective

When Dorian lands in Florida, this is the fourth hurricane since 2016, according to Hermione (2016), Irma (2017) and Michael (2018).

"Suppose #HurricaneDorian In Florida this is Fourth year in a row, when a hurricane lands in Florida. This is the highest year in a row that a hurricane has landed in Florida since hurricanes hit it for a whopping 7 consecutive years from 1944 to 1950. " Phil Klotzbach tweeted a hurricane researcher affiliated with Colorado State University.

Klotzbach added that Dorian, when landing in Florida as a Category 4 with 130 mph of sustained wind, would be the strongest Florida east coast since Andrew hit in 1992 (the winds of 165 miles per Hour had). Only 8 hurricanes of category 4 or 5 have landed in Florida since 1900.

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