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Home / World / Hurricane Dorian Forecast: The Florida threat is not so bad, but concerns about the Southeast US are growing

Hurricane Dorian Forecast: The Florida threat is not so bad, but concerns about the Southeast US are growing




(NOAA)

With peak wind speeds of 200 km / h, Hurricane Dorian is as imposing and threatening as it has ever been, moving in the direction of Florida and the Southeastern United States. However, shifting the model predictions to the east may allow Florida to miss the rage of this severe hurricane, while areas further north in the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are at increasing risk.

Nevertheless, the National Hurricane The center urges the Floridians not to disappoint and to continue to prepare for an "extremely dangerous" hurricane. As of Saturday, 11.00, the storm was at a distance of 665 km east of West Palm Beach at a speed of 13 km / h in a westerly direction.

"Life-threatening storm surges and devastating winds with hurricanes are still possible along parts of Florida's east coast from early to mid-next week," the center wrote in its 5 o'clock bulletin as a key message. "Residents should have their hurricane plan, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to the advice of local emergency officials."

The Hurricane Center shifted its official forecast eastward, just off the coast of Florida, but still within striking distance of the state. "It should be noted that the new forecast route does not exclude the landing of Dorian on the Florida coast, as much of the coast remains in the track of uncertainty," he wrote. "Even if the center is not on land, significant impacts can occur."

If the storm passes close to Florida, tropical storm winds can arrive on Sunday or Sunday. Given that the storm is slow to progress, the effects of wind, rain and storm tides – that is, the surge in water over normally dry coastal land – could continue until the middle of next week. [19659008] Hurricanes are more likely to hit Florida's northeast than Florida's southeast.

Although the risk of a hurricane disaster in Florida has partially declined, it has become more likely that the coast from Georgia to the Carolinas will face severe repercussions from Dorian by the middle of next week.

"The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surges is rising along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina," wrote the Hurricane Center. But even here there is great uncertainty in the storm lane.

Regardless of the final course of the storm near the east coast of Florida to the outskirts of North Carolina – or even inland – is a significant coastal flooding due to the force of Dorian's winds and probably astronomical tide or royal flood.

Despite the uncertainty in Dorian's trail and its specific impact along the southeastern US coast, confidence is high that the northwestern Bahamas will be punished by the storm. A hurricane warning is pending for this region, and the Hurricane Center predicts "devastating hurricane winds", at least 10 to 15 inches of rain (with isolated 25-inch sums) and a "life-threatening" tidal surge of 10 to 15 feet in onshore areas. winds. The storm can move near or directly over the islands of Abacos and Grand Bahama as it moves slowly forward.

Due to the proximity to the country, minor variations in storm severity are predicted until Sunday, before a slower slowdown trend sets in to Labor Day and increasing wind shear. Even so, the Hurricane Center still forecasts high winds of 110 mph as the storm approaches the Karolina on Wednesday night.

Dorian experienced an astonishing strength on Friday night when his central pressure dropped 24 millibars in six hours – from 970 to 946 millibars. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm.

Discussing Discussion and Consequences

The risk of a direct strike in Florida has diminished, as the predicted intensity of the high-pressure zone should push the Doric West into the state has weakened some. As a result, most of the models show that the control currents collapse when Dorian approaches Florida before being picked up by a jetstream break in the direction of the east coast and turning north.

However, this collapse of the tax flows is so close to Florida that some models continue to keep the storm close enough to cause adverse effects in parts of the state.

In its early morning discussion, the Hurricane Center wrote that models that "normally use it" shifted the storm lane far enough to the east that "none" predicted that Dorian would land in Florida. "However, several other models warned against bringing Dorian across Florida. Significantly, one of these models is the UKMet, which is one of the most accurate and is a reason for Floridians to stay ready.

Further north in the coastal area of ​​Georgia and the Carolinas, the forecast is also a nibble. Only small differences, where the storm begins to turn north and eventually to the northeast, and the shape of the turn determine where and whether Dorian lands.

Because Dorian Will not Take His Next Step in Four to Seven Days In this zone north of Florida, it is not possible to determine if and where the storm will land and how close it will be to the coast. Scenarios with a direct hit, a raid, and a near miss appear equally likely based on the available predictions. As the Hurricane Center writes, "Residents in these areas should continue to monitor Dorian's progress."

The shape of the coast of North Florida through the Carolinas means that there is a risk of a significant storm surge, even if the center of the storm remains just off the coast.

Andrew Freedman and Matthew Cappucci of Capital Weather Gang contributed to this article.


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