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IEA sees $ 90 before the decline of oil



Global oil demand will plateau around 2030, according to a key new report, but demand is far too slow to cushion the worsening effects of climate change.

Oil demand begins to flatten in the 2030s. "Under the pressure of increasing fuel efficiency and electrification of mobility," said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its highly anticipated annual World Energy Outlook.

However, the Agency itself does not see any peak in CO2 emissions by 2040 in a scenario that contains some intended policy objectives. The IEA says that an expanding economy and a growing world population outweigh the emission reduction efforts. The reduction of emissions requires a "much more ambitious policy".

"The discrepancy between the rising CO2 bias and the desire of countries to reach an emission ceiling early on was particularly conspicuous to climate change, given the recent scientific work of the Intergovernmental Panel," the IEA said, referring to the rather serious conclusions the IPCC report of 201

8, which found that the world has run out of time to make far-reaching and far-reaching emission reductions.

As Reuters reports, some groups criticize the IEA for consistently forecasting strong growth in oil demand. "The IEA effectively creates its own reality by forecasting a steady increase in demand for fossil fuels, which in turn justifies increased investment in supply and makes it difficult to change the energy system," said Andrew Logan, senior director of oil and gas at Ceres, Reuters ,

Renewable energies are growing rapidly and make up an increasing share of all new investments. According to the IEA, solar will be the largest single source of installed electricity capacity by 2040, outperforming coal in the 2030s. See also: A Bull Guide to Oil Markets

However, impressive growth for renewable energy and failed climate goals are two things that can apply at the same time. The clock is ticking and the world needs sun and wind to grow much faster.

The IEA notes that the world adds around 100 GW of solar energy every year, enough solar energy to cover 200,000 football fields. At this rate, however, it would take 200 years to meet the world's energy needs at the 2018 level. Worse still, demand is not stagnating but growing. With 100 GW of new solar power per year, solar would in the future cover only 20 percent of the annual growth in electricity demand.

In other words, solar energy "slows" the growth of consumption from other sources as it grows rapidly. [19659002] The IEA Sustainable Development Scenario, which calls for deep emission reductions to meet climate targets, requires solar energy to grow at a rate of 300 GW per year. Of course, this requires some important policy changes.

The IEA estimates that demand for oil will increase by one million barrels per day (mb / d) by 2025 before flattening out by 2030. Exhaustion of existing sources of supply will cause prices to fall despite steady slowdown, according to the IEA demand will rise to around $ 90 per barrel by 2030.

US accounts for 85 percent of total global oil supply growth over the next few years The Agency sees the current slowdown in shale production as temporary.

"The shale revolution has fueled more than $ 1 trillion in new investment over the last ten years – nearly $ 900 billion upriver and the rest for new pipelines and other infrastructures, including LNG export terminals." the IEA. "For many of the companies involved, this was not a profitable business for the time being: As of 2018, the upstream slate industry has not yet achieved a positive free cash flow." Related: Aramcos Breakeven Costs Are The World's Lowest [19659002] This is a noteworthy conclusion, as the IEA has itself repeatedly forecasted the upcoming profitability of slate in recent years, even though the agency is not alone in doing something wrong.

While the US slate burned cash, he actually produced a lot of oil. Slate production is slowing down now as investors lose interest, but the IEA says, "The slate race is not yet underway. Many of the most profound implications of the Slate Revolution lie ahead of us. "The IEA expects slate to continue to grow in the coming years, although some analysts are calling this optimism into the limelight. Against the background of the IPCC warnings, the prospects are bleak. "The world needs a grand coalition of governments, businesses, investors, and anyone committed to tackling the climate challenge. Otherwise, the chances of achieving the climate goals are very low, "said Fatih Birol from the IEA. "The world urgently needs a laser-like focus on lowering global emissions."

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

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