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If the situation in Syria intensifies, will Iran again aim at Israel?



Israel's covert war with Iran became apparent when Iran sent an armed drone to Israeli territory in February, which can only be interpreted as a clear escalation. While Israel destroyed most of the Syrian air defense after an Israeli Air Force fighter plane was shot down, now that Israel has allegedly hit the T-4 base in Syria and killed several Iranian soldiers, Iran is threatening to retaliate.

The question is, when, where and how.

According to David Makovsky, director of the project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Middle East Policy, "there is no doubt that a possible war between the two countries is even more uncertain Israel and Iran or its deputies existed in the past "he told JNS.

Israel would prefer that the international community play a greater role in preventing Iran from further establishing itself in Syria, but this is unlikely, he said, "American strategy in Syria is largely focused on ISIS."

Makowski acknowledged that "all this is no great comfort to Israel, who would like to see America launch its own military strikes." Since this is currently unlikely, it is believed that the United States would provide political support to Israel if it decides to take further military action against Iran in Syria.

"It does not seem to me that the president, in the face of his public opinion, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran analyst at the foundation For defense of democracies, JNS said that "the most important strategy for Israel at present is to manage Israel's escalation dynamics in Israel's favor because Iran will try to re-test Israel. The armed drone was a qualitatively different threat to Israel ̵

1; it poses a threat to the entire population rather than just a message to Israel's political or military establishment. "

Like Makovsky, Ben Taleblu also sees no expanded US role in Syria, and currently US foreign policy is still mixed up there." At the moment, "he said," there is an unknown "unknown" in terms of American analysts trying to define the US defense strategy in Syria. The first is the anti-ISIS campaign. The second is more normative, and that is upright the non-use of chemical weapons. And the third is that military commanders rhetorically blame Iran for what is going on in Syria.

Netanyahu: "Aggression Against Aggression"

Anticipating Iran's intention to retaliate, Israeli security and defense planners are making every effort to demonstrate to Iran that Israel is superior and that it is not worth the consequences for Iran to attack Israel.

As such, Israel announced that it had canceled its plans to deploy its fighter jets to a joint military exercise with the United States in Alaska over concerns about Iran's construction. [19659] 19659002] At the same time, Israeli leaders have made it clear to Iran that they will not tolerate its threats.

"Our policy can be summed up in three words: aggression against aggression," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, Iranian officials have responded to Israel's actions and rhetoric.

"Israeli aggression against Syrians and Muslims in the region continues, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said, adding that Tehran would respond" sooner or later. "

Similarly said Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Al-Mayass, pan-Arab satellite television broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, said that Iran would reciprocate against Israel 19659002] "We must expect something from Iran," he said. "Hezbollah and Iran will not allow Israel "Restricting their movement in Syria."

"End Last Resistance Nest"

Assaf Orion, a senior scientist at the Institute for National Security Studies, told JNS "What we're seeing in Syria now is a buildup of several problems. One is the last phase of the civil war, which means that the regime feels very encouraged to close the last seats of resistance. There are measures in the north between Turkey. "And the Kurds.Southward, Russia has concentrated on Damascus and its suburbs.

" This conjunction, "he continued," means that Syria is confident in using chemical weapons , The regime has re-created the skills and the determination to use it. The chemical attack was part of the regime's usual style of ending last resistance nests. "

In 2013, Syria joined the Chemical Weapons Convention," but it's obvious that the two northernmost places that were hit by the coalition forces were after 2013, "said Orion. In fact, the Assad regime has been shifting its assets, keeping some if they can, and then, backed by Russia, using smoke and mirrors to deny their existence. The coalition strike should tell Syria that the international community knows that it uses chemical weapons. But everything points to a failure of this mechanism to determine what is going on and to expose violations. "

There are voices calling for the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad – or even the assassination – that Assad must recognize Orion, that the crimes of tyrants like Adolph Eichmann, Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Miloševi have finally caught up with them. [19659002] "Alongside the chemical weapons issue, there is the Iran-Israel axis," continued Orion. "Iran is militarily established in Syria. Now Iran seems to feel that it is time to turn its investment into real profits and dig into Syria. Iran is Hizbollah on steroids.

What Iran will do now, according to Orion, is not immediately obvious, though he says he is certain that "the Israeli military has made preparations to counter Iran's every attempt" Israel

The question which still exists, Ben Taleblu emphasizes, "Will Iran actually try to retest Israel or will it try to save face?"


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