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Impeachment Takeaways: Another week full of great developments



What was the biggest development of a crazy week for you?

Natasha Bertrand, national security reporter: Definitely two Rudy Giuliani employees, who in many ways have fallen into the thick of this Ukraine scandal. Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman – were charged for campaign funding. The prosecution, together with Giuliani, could shed more light on the couple's campaign to discredit former Vice President Joe Biden and remove US ambassador to Ukraine, Masha Yovanovitch. This is also an indication of the intensification of the crackdown on illegal campaigning at a moment when criminal investigations are being launched against Trump's Founding Committee for possibly receiving donations from illegal foreign sources. Parnas and Fruman, who were born outside the United States, reportedly spent up to $ 1

million in foreign money on political action committees and campaigns, including Trumps.

Darren Samuelsohn, senior White House reporter: The news about the Giuliani staff was definitely big. But I throw a curveball here and go with someone we have not thought much about lately: Robert Mueller. US Federal District Court chief Beryl Howell's questions and comments during a hearing on Tuesday indicated that she was anxious to get the Special Counsel's Grand Jury documents published. In that case, she would provide the House Democrats with a wealth of new information in her impeachment investigation-things that would turn into ammunition in an expanding probe outside Ukraine. The Department of Justice would also appeal against a decision directed against Howell, triggering a much larger fight that appears to be taking place before the Supreme Court.

Andrew Desiderio, Congress Reporter: The biggest development of the week took place in my book at the end, when the DC House Democrats Court of Appeals for eight years confirmed the summons of Trump's financial records from his accounting firm, Mazars. It is a huge loss for the President after he has lost an offer to lift the summons before a lower court. Trump has done everything possible to prevent his financial records and tax returns from falling into the hands of his political enemies – and he may not have any further recourse this time around. But even beyond this specific struggle, the decision of a panel of three judges on Friday will give the Congressional regulator a big boost. "Contrary to the arguments of the President, the Committee has the power to issue the summons under both the House Rules and the Constitution," wrote one of the judges.

Kyle Cheney, Congressional Reporter: In a week of great developments, the decision by former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, to defy the State Department to testify in Parliament's impeachment investigation is, in my opinion, the biggest consequence be. With her decision she made a template for other witnesses, even if they were not asked to – and already a second Foreign Ministry ambassador, Gordon Sondland, is preparing to follow suit. The testimony of Yovanovitch himself was also significant. She dismissed some of the conspiracy theories that led Trump to oust her and revealed that she had received a word of support from John Sullivan, Deputy Secretary of State, when Trump withdrew her from her post in Ukraine.

Josh Gerstein, Legal Reporter: I'm going to step down from the board (is that legal?) And say the week's most significant impeachment move was Trump's decision to set aside US forces as Turkey invades Syria. Of course, this has nothing directly to do with the current democratization claims made by Democrats, but the move profoundly shook many of Trump's most important followers.

People like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who defended Trump in their sole discretion, were quite surprised by the President's decision to give up the long-time US ally Kurds. Other supporters of Trump even appeared in unexpected places like MSNBC to announce the move. Why someone would upset his closest friends in the political struggle of his life is hard to fathom. The impulsive, widely criticized move and effort to cleanse it also undermines Trump's arguments that his unorthodox telephone diplomacy is "perfect" as he claims.

Democrats do not yet give an official timetable for their plans. Is there really a clock here to worry about?

Natasha: I think some Democrats are worried that the investigation is going too deep into an election year and is pushing for impeachment in the middle of the presidential conference contests. There is also the danger that Trump will be sympathetic if it takes too long. On the other hand, an impeachment investigation and an election year have never coincided, so the consequences are difficult to predict.

Darren: It seems that the unofficial timetable that has been circulated – the vote on the annulment of Thanksgiving and the Senate trial against Christmas – is a bit unrealistic. This would suggest that the House will do all the research, ask questions and collect documents in the next five weeks before the turkey break. Sure, that's possible. But Trump and his company are also putting up many roadblocks to slow things down. Although their stubbornness might be just another impeachment article, Democrats may seem to be more careful to make sure they get what they need. This is particularly the case if they believe that there is a realistic chance of convincing the Republicans of the House to join in impeachment, let alone find the 20 Republicans for conviction. German: www.mjfriendship.de/de/index.php?op…80&Itemid=58 I would also say that the Democrats are all in all against the impeachment at this point and they probably expect that if Iowa, New Hampshire and other states vote for the primaries and Meetings will be next year.

Andrew: Before the Ukraine scandal exploded, high-ranking Democrats said they wanted to make a decision by the end of the calendar year on whether impeachment should be recommended. Given that Ukraine is now at the center of its investigation – and the almost certainty that Democrats will write articles – that timeline is very much in flux. Moderate Democrats and swing district Democrats have indicated that they do not want to speed up the process, in part to obtain as much evidence as possible to convince both the Republicans and . They are very cautious in the perception that this is a party political process. and the more evidence they have, the more likely they are to persuade holdouts to support them. These legislators will have in mind the whole way through 2020, even if they do not say it publicly.

Kyle: There is currently no plan. House democrats are operating with the wind behind for the first time – polls show that their impeachment investigation finds public support, and they actually generate new information for the first time in a year and testify to witnesses who report on key episodes that could feed the government's articles They finally make the impeachment. Although some Democrats say they want to turn this momentum into articles as soon as possible – maybe even until the beginning of November – there are more cautious lawmakers who want to make sure they've tightened their arguments against Trump to the extent that public support goes up the process is preserved at the end.

Josh: The White House's bombastic Tuesday letter announcing plans to block the house's impeachment probe and the unexpected arrests of Giuliani's two employees add to the house's growing impeachment momentum.

The timing of the impeachment and the confrontation with the White House will eventually change. Even as the Speaker of Parliament Nancy Pelosi and other parliamentary leaders celebrated important legal successes this week, they seemed to regard Trump's ongoing resistance as a guilty plea that leaves the door open to vote on the impeachment without a final decision by the courts. More information could be useful to Democrats in the context of the impeachment process, but at this point it does not appear to be necessary for a procedure that seems to be coming to an unstoppable conclusion, at least in Parliament.

Are we getting closer to a Trump conviction in the Senate?

Natasha: The Republicans still expect the impeachment process to be exclusively partisan. But as my colleagues Darren Samuelsohn and Burgess Everett wrote on Friday the political landscape could change rapidly, depending on what emerges during the course of the investigation. Several Republican governors have already voted in favor of impeachment investigations, and although they can not directly participate in the process, this is at least a sign that Trump's GOP support may not be impenetrable.

Darren: Maybe a little bit. Someone I've always seen – Mitt Romney – is currently criticizing the president for urging both Ukraine and China to support his re-election bid for 2020. Pretty much everyone else keeps his powder dry except for occasional comments from people like Ben Sasse or Susan Collins. This is only to be expected as we still do not know what the house will ever impose on impeachment. You have no incentive to change that – for now. And yes, as Natasha said, I would definitely recommend our story this Friday, which reinforces the idea that Trump World feels a bit nervous, though the president is doing his best to be confident that the Senate will save him.

Andrew: Ever since the Democrats thought about further impeachment, I've thought that Republicans would only break with the President on one condition: if the public turns so energetically and overwhelmingly against Trump, that's no more Politically, it is tough for the Republicans to stay with him. Will we reach this moment? Probably not; The president will always have his base voter block staying with him, no matter what. However, as public support for the impeachment has increased steadily in recent weeks, I would not close the door to a Senate conviction. That being said, I would not put any money on it.

Kyle: Conviction is still a dream in the current political climate. A handful of Senate republicans are openly critical of Trump, but far from 20 – and even the small number that Trump's actions are worth examining has gone far beyond the demand for impeachment and litigation. Politics can change quickly, and Trump has chosen a strange time to anger his allies by lifting support for Kurds in Syria. However, several seismic, unpredictable events will be required to change the dynamics.

Josh: I still do not see any obvious signs of collapse in support of Trump's Senate, but it's worth noting that these things usually happen quickly. Everything looks fine until it does not. There is little incentive for a GOP senator to become shaky at the moment. But the list of prominent GOP officials who advocate impeachment investigation has grown slightly this week, as Maryland Governor Larry Hogan said he considers Trump's investigation of Ukrainian diplomacy necessary . Any Republican who makes such a comment makes it easier for the next to follow what the White House has to worry about.

Can Rudy continue as Trump's lawyer?

Natasha: He will probably try – but there is a good chance Trump will try to distance himself from the charge of Parnas and Fruman. Giuliani also does not have many allies among the congressional Republicans who have insulted him recently .

Giuliani can also be a legal threat. For example, its dealings with Ukraine may constitute a violation of the Logan Law, which seeks to prevent individuals from engaging in foreign diplomacy on behalf of the US. He could also be vulnerable if he teamed up with the president to blackmail the Ukrainians. Mimi Rocah, a former federal attorney from the Southern District of New York, argued in a recent article (19459007) that the DOJ "now has more than enough ground to initiate a criminal investigation by the former New York mayor. "

Darren: Rudy's lawyer Jon Sale told me on Friday that Giuliani is still actually representing the president, and I think the relationship may be tense at the moment, and it's possible we'll have in the coming weeks Less could be seen by Giuliani on cable television – you could think so, or – how the federal government is circling him about the charges against his co-workers.But Trump and Giuliani go far, far, far back – "My Rudy" is the nickname of the President for his lawyer – and it is hard to imagine that they would no longer talk privately to act privately strategically.

Andrew: Republicans on Capitol Hill have become privately over Giulianis commitment and annoyed his inclination to worsen the situation for the President, and in recent weeks has also been reported that even members of the inner circle of Trump in the administration g. Giuliani are disappointed. I will somewhat contradict my colleagues here and say that if these people convince the President that Giuliani is doing him more harm than good, he could do Giuliani very well.

Kyle: Trump might need him. Rudy knows everything about everything and is interwoven with the whole Trump world. Although I would not expect Giuliani to appear on television as often as the president's envoy, it will be difficult to remove him completely from the inner circle, even if his comment has alienated other Republicans and makes the president more legal every time he speaks.

Josh: I think Giuliani will be more or less silenced within a few days. According to several reports, no one wants a lawyer against whom he will be prosecuted. And somebody facing such an investigation suddenly has all sorts of conflicts in all its cases because it is very difficult to negotiate with prosecutors about your own potential liability while your clients are doing their best.

Another prediction: His talk of testimony before the Senate will turn into a judicial dispute over this testimony. I can not imagine Giuliani's lawyers wanting him to be publicly insulted by the Democrats and open to possible charges of these answers, if he has the right to take over the Fifth, or simply claiming everything he knows be protected by a lawyer privilege. These arguments become more difficult when you are on TV all the time. This is another reason why we will see less of it.

What can we expect next week?

Natasha: I'll be looking for new information that comes out of the Fiona Hill Congressional on Monday. Hill was the Special Assistant to the President and Executive Director for European and Russian Affairs in the National Security Council until shortly before the infamous Trump-Zelensky call – alias Trump's best Russia / Europe adviser. Hill traded with Ukraine, Russia and Europe, while Giuliani, Sondland and Volker launched a shadowy foreign policy campaign against Ukraine, and she and her team noted this. They seemed to be irritated, sources told me, so Hill could probably fill some gaps for Democrats, which was happening at the time in the NSC – including the practice of concealing Trump's calls with foreign leaders in the NSC's top secret code word system.

Andrew: Deposits, deposits and other deposits. Democrats are rapidly gathering evidence in the form of documents, communications and testimonies to find Trump abusing his office by asking for foreign interference in the 2020 elections. And next week, they are talking to a few more key witnesses who could contextualize the full extent of Trump's and Giuliani's efforts to trick Ukraine into polluting Biden.

In addition, Parliament is back in session after two weeks on Tuesday, so we should have a better idea of ​​how the political landscape has changed since Pelosi declared the impeachment process formal. Pelosi could also be under new pressure to hold a formal vote approving an impeachment investigation, something she was reluctant to face in response to Republican grievances. For the most part, Democrats believe that such a vote is unnecessary, but some of the court decisions we expect in the coming days could put a strain on Pelosi – the case of the big Müller jury, where a federal judge hears arguments about the issue whether the house is traded is involved in a formal impeachment investigation and can therefore access the secrets of the grand jury of Müller.

Kyle: Legislators return from recess for the first time since the beginning of their impeachment push, and since then the polls reflect the country's changing mood in their favor. I would expect a hectic atmosphere on Capitol Hill as legislators set a timetable to turn their investigation into actual impeachment. It will be chaotic, especially with a series of court hearings that could lead teams with new information to land on Capitol Hill, which is related to Parliament's impeachment efforts.

Darren: It's hard to figure out that technically there will only be four working days in the next week, considering how much stuff actually is on the calendar. There are too many secondment and subpoena deadlines to be counted, and if many of them are ignored as expected, Democrats will have more impeachment food available. Only having members of Congress back in Washington will also make matters worse. They've been scattered all over the country since Nancy Pelosi added propellant to the impeachment fire. Now they are followed by reporters at every turn, looking for a comment on the current state of affairs. Rest this weekend, everybody.

Josh: I assume that there is more talk among returning Democratic lawmakers that a vote should be held to expressly authorize impeachment. Do not think that next week will actually happen, but there could be a consensus among the Dems. He also continued to focus on Giuliani's role in the Ukraine affair. His clients may file charges next week, leading to a New York media hype. And the press will be up to date, the Ukrainian official is said to have bankrolled and directed his alleged plan to make straw donations to gain influence over DC and Trump.


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