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Iran takes its stance directly from Trump's game book for North Korea



The Trump administration uses their game book for Iran in North Korea: use a campaign of "maximum pressure" – the same nomenclature was used for Tehran and Pyongyang – to push the opponent into a corner and then try to negotiate. Respond to a threat by escalating your own threat. Then negotiate to relieve tension and win.

In North Korea's case, it was the now-infamous US President Donald Trump's ultimatum that caused the greatest tension: "North Korea is in the throes of being threatened by the United States, and will be confronted with fire and rage as the world is never saw … it was very threatening beyond a normal state. "
The threat to Iran came in the form of a tweet on Sunday:" If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran Never again the United States! "

Van Jackson, a former Defense Department official under the Obama administration and author of" On the Brink: Trump, Kim and the Danger of a Nuclear War, "told CNN that Trump" gambled with the He has not yet paid a price for this goal, to address major threats to North Korea, and now he thinks he is a good player. "

" Trump has no idea that the North Korean Ignorance has caused him to repeat many of the same impulsive flaws that nearly led to catastrophe in 2017, "Jackson added.

Rhetorical Whiplash

In front of the camera, Trump gave a much less combative sound in an interview with Fox News that aired Sunday.

"I just do not want them to have nuclear weapons, and they can not threaten us," Trump said of Iran.

"In everything that's going on, and I'm not one who believes – you know, I'm not someone who wants to go to war because war is hurting economies, killing people most – by going far Most important. "

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly denied that Iran is building a bomb, saying that weapons of mass destruction are banned under Islam.

Trump answered the same question and also pointed to North Korea as a diplomatic victory.

"When I went to North Korea, there were nuclear tests all the time, rockets were going up all the time, we had a very hard time, and then we got along, we'll see what happens now," Trump said.

He continued, "At the moment, I do not believe I told them when I left Vietnam where we had the summit. I said to Chairman Kim, and I think very important, I said, look, you are not ready for a deal because he wanted to get rid of one or two locations, but he has five locations .I said, what about the other? This is not good, (if) we make a deal, we make a real deal have not had any tests in the last two years. "

The problem is that the jury is still open as to whether Trump's North Korea strategy will ultimately bear fruit. At the moment it does not look good.

"It seems very clear that the President's strategy is to increase the temperature and pressure on Iran to renegotiate the JCPOA (the Comprehensive Comprehensive Action Plan) German: emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/art … = 120 & lang = DE (commonly known as the "Iran – Nuclear Agreement"), which in its view was flawed because it left Iran with a (clearly regionally aggressive) foreign policy and some remnants of defense capability (ie Rockets) and expiration clauses via enrichment caps, "said the MIT professor and Vipin Narang, an expert on nuclear proliferation.

Trump officially abandoned the Iranian nuclear deal in May 2018, to the dismay of Iran and its European signatories.

"It's dangerous to run the same game against Iran with the Iranians" I believe it worked with North Korea when the evidence is undoubtedly mixed or even completely contradictory, "Narang added.

The North Korean Heads of State and Government Kim Jong Un and Trump clearly left their February summit in Hanoi without an agreement and with regard to the parameters needed to obtain such an agreement.

Trump has openly agreed to an agreement with Kim , in which both sides work together -in: North Korea is completely dismantling its nuclear weapons and missile programs in exchange for a full sanction relief.

Kim made it clear that he is dissatisfied with the progress of the negotiations, since he and Trump in Hanoi no agreement In a speech to the ruling Labor Party last month, Kim said he wanted to finish the yes See if the United States make a bold decision or not.

"To win a victory against North Korea when the outcome is anything but dangerous in two ways: North Korea, because Kim is likely to escalate the behavior that the US finds provocative, and with Iran, because Trump does seems to have internalized his own fact-free narrative about the magic he has worked with in North Korea, "Jackson said.

To the chagrin of many in Washington, Pyongyang resumed the test-fire short-range missiles that could possibly carry nuclear warheads. Kim only agreed to stop testing long-range missiles that threaten the US mainland, but in theory, short-range missiles threaten North Korea's neighbors and US troops stationed there. After the test, Trump said he did not believe that North Korea was "ready to negotiate".

Pyongyang has indicated that a gradual process is being sought to strengthen trust between the two sides. Washington fears that this approach could be easily exploited by North Korea.

The catch is that North Korea is likely to abolish its nuclear weapons program if it maintains a trusting and stable relationship with the United States. And the US will probably only build a normal relationship with North Korea if they give up their nuclear weapons program.

Trump may not have the time to build this confidence, and the destruction of the Iranian nuclear agreement has put him in a tougher bargaining position, although it has been established that Tehran is in compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency's pact.

Trump advocates argued that a break in the Iran deal would send a clear signal to Kim Jong Un about the nature of the deal for which the Trump administration would be willing to bargain.

But his critics say that Pyongyang, Tehran or any other party willing to negotiate with the United States has proved that an agreement may only be valid as long as the president who signed it President who denounces the power of personal relationships in reaching agreements and even says he "fell in love" with Kim.

Love may not have a term limit, but Trump does.


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