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Is the corona virus really losing effectiveness in Italy? What you need to know

There is a claim by a doctor in Italy that the Covid-1

9 coronavirus could lose effectiveness in Italy. But, like most horror movies you’ve probably taught you, only assume that a threat has subsided when you are really, positively, and absolutely certain that it is.

These Reuters The video covers this claim from Dr. Alberto Zangrillo, head of the San Raffaele hospital in Milan, Italy:

As a Reuters According to reports, Zangrillo said that “the virus no longer exists clinically in Italy” and that “the smears taken in the past 10 days showed a quantitative viral load that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the one performed a month or two ago.” Hmm, “Clinically no longer exists” is a rather bold statement. Did he check everyone in Italy for symptoms or the virus to confirm this statement? That would have required a lot of swabs.

The answers of the WHO experts to Zangrillo’s comments were comparable to the statement “What?” Listen to what Mike Ryan, MD, MPH, Executive Director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Health Emergency Program, said at a press conference today:

As you can see, Ryan warned, “We have to be extremely careful so that we don’t feel that the virus is suddenly less pathogenic. That is not the case at all. “He emphasized that the Covid-19 corona virus is still a“ killer virus ”.

As Kate Kelland and Emilio Parodi reported ReutersThe technical director of the WHO and epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove referred to Coroonavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) with severe acute respiratory syndrome: “In terms of portability, this has not changed in terms of severity, it has not changed. “

Viruses like the Covid-19 corona virus are not like Viagra. They do not automatically lose strength over time. Yes, there is a possibility that less dangerous versions of the virus may appear and may occur more frequently than the original version. There is also a possibility that more dangerous versions may appear. However, both options do not occur overnight.

Could an approach to summer lead to reduced virus activity? Certainly if the transmission of the Covid-19 coronavirus shows the same type of seasonal fluctuation as the flu virus. I’ve covered this option for before Forbes. It is still not clear if this will be the case. However, before you make bold statements that the virus is losing effectiveness, as science and whiskey say, you need to have enough evidence.

This type of evidence is only provided after extensive testing and monitoring over time and in many places. Tests in a hospital or even in several hospitals over a period of ten days will not tell you the whole story. It would be like going to a pizza hut and using your visit there to draw conclusions about pizza in general. Remember that not every pizza has cheese in its crust. Similarly, the amount of virus testing swabs in a hospital or even a group of hospitals does not necessarily represent what is happening across the country, especially when other respected non-hospital scientists have not had a chance to check The data.

Instead, you need to have a sufficiently large sample over a long period of time to really understand what’s going on across the country and to make sure it’s not just a temporary slump. A longer period means more than 10 days, which is still less than the incubation period for the virus. For example, what if the virus spreads to disadvantaged or socially isolated people who may not have direct access to health care and therefore do not necessarily need to be seen by doctors?

Also keep in mind that Italy has closed things for a while with aggressive social distancing measures. All of these efforts have likely reduced the transmission of the virus at least a little. Will the reopening of society in Italy lead to a bad continuation of a bad first episode, like in the film? Adults 2 after the first Adults Movie? Could the sequel come in the fall? It is too early to say.

The situation in Italy can be observed. More concrete, expert-verified scientific evidence is required before anything new can be discovered about the effectiveness of the virus. Even if some changes were made in Italy, it would not necessarily mean that this will ultimately also apply elsewhere. What happens in Italy could just stay in Italy.

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