Trump carried all three states in 2016, with his closest win in one state coming from Michigan and only getting 10,704 votes. The poll results are among registered voters, but if you only consider those who say they are most likely to vote in the autumn elections, support for the two candidates remains roughly the same.
Almost all recent high-quality surveys in Florida and Michigan have shown that Biden has an advantage there, while in Arizona there was a mix of Biden leads and results within the error rate of each survey. The new CNN survey in Arizona shows that Biden is just outside the survey̵
However, it should be noted that recent Florida surveys regarding Biden’s support in the state were fairly consistent (Quinnipiac put it at 51%, just like the new CNN survey, while CBS News landed at 48% and Fox News at 49 %), with more support for the president (46% in the new CNN poll, 42% in CBS News, 40% in Fox News and 38% in the Quinnipiac poll).
Regarding coronavirus and racial inequality, two issues that have dominated the national conversation in recent months, Trump’s disapproval is around 60% in all three countries. The coronavirus outbreak disapproves of 60% in Arizona, 59% in Michigan and 57% in Florida. Regarding racial inequality in the United States, 59% disapprove of both Arizona and Michigan, 57% of Florida.
The results suggest that the president could be on better ground in all three states if the country’s focus shifts to the economy: Majorities in Arizona and Florida rate the president positively for his dealings with the economy (52% vote) in every state). Michiganders are roughly evenly distributed (47% agree, 49% disapprove).
However, there is little evidence that such a shift will occur in the near future. In Arizona and Florida, two areas where coronavirus infections have spread rapidly in recent weeks, the majority (57% in Arizona, 64% in Florida) believe that the worst outbreak is yet to come. In both states, more than 7 out of 10 voters who say the worst are ahead of Biden as president. In Michigan, a slim majority say the worst is behind it (51%).
Michigan’s democratic governor Gretchen Whitmer, who has publicly clashed with Trump for responding to the corona virus, receives high marks from her state’s residents for handling the virus. 69% say that they feel they are doing everything to fight it. Republican Arizona and Florida governors are not seen by their voters this way: 66% say Arizona governor Doug Ducey could do more to fight the outbreak, and 63% say the same thing about Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
Both Biden and Trump have argued that they are the better choice for American security, with Trump’s campaign focusing on a message of law and order, and Biden’s campaign arguing that Trump dropped the ball on the corona virus and life the American tasted. When asked which candidate would “protect the Americans from harm,” voters in Michigan voted Biden, 52% to 43%. In Arizona they are evenly distributed, 47% each. And in Florida, they choose Trump, 51% to 46%.
In all three states, Biden is more often considered honest and trustworthy than Trump, but just under one in ten states states that the description does not apply to any of the candidates.
Biden’s advantage in all three countries is largely due to his lead in women. He deserves the support of 61% of women in Michigan, 56% in Arizona and 53% in Florida. The differences in the way women choose between states are largely due to differences in support among white women. In Michigan, Biden holds 57% of white women versus Trumps 36%. In Arizona, they split more evenly, 50% for Biden and 46% for Trump. And in Florida, Trump leads 55% of Bidens to 42% of white women. Biden has a broad lead among colored women in all three states.
This difference between white women in Michigan and those in Arizona and Florida is also very evident in the question of which candidate would ensure the safety of the Americans. While white women are more likely than white men in all three states to say that Biden would protect them, 18 points are more likely in Michigan, compared to five points in Florida and six points in Arizona.
Given the pandemic, voters’ views on how they would prefer to vote in the fall are divided by party, with Democrats voting more by post or early and Republicans more likely to vote on election day.
This means that the preferences for voting via email and not for personal voting among Biden’s supporters are stronger than among Trump’s supporters. In Arizona, 78% of Biden supporters say they prefer to vote by mail, compared to 43% of Trump supporters. In Florida, 59% of Biden supporters would prefer postal ballot papers than 19% of Trump supporters. And in Michigan, 67% of Biden supporters say they’d rather vote in the mail than 22% of Trump supporters.
While most votes in Arizona and Florida were cast early or absent in the recent election, the poll suggests that in Michigan, where about a quarter of the votes were typically cast absent in the past few years, postal votes could increase significantly . Almost half of Michigan voters, 47%, say they would prefer postal voting, and another 6% want the opportunity to vote in person early.
According to the polls, Democratic candidates are leading the Senate races in Arizona and Michigan. In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters leads the Republican John James with 54% to 38%. In Arizona, Democratic challenger Mark Kelly leads Republican Senator Martha McSally by 50% to 43%.
These CNN surveys were conducted by SSRS by phone on July 18-24, randomly sampling adults living in Arizona, Florida, Michigan. In each state, the results for the sample of adults have an error rate of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, for the subgroups of registered voters in each state, 3.8 points. The interviews were conducted with 1,002 adults, including 873 registered voters, in Arizona, 1,005 adults, including 880 registered voters in Florida, and 1,003 adults, including 927 registered voters, in Michigan.