However, a look at the early signals in the endorsement part of the Invisible Primary indicates Harris as a force to be expected in 2020.
As in public opinion polls, the endorsement primary points to a contest that still exists wide open. That's not a big surprise. We are still more than a year away from the Iowa factions. Nevertheless, it will be important to observe the endorsement primarily. Candidates who receive a large number of supporters from party actors (politicians, activists, etc.) tend to do well. Even six months before Iowa, the candidate who stands before the endorsement primaries has won 9 of the last 14 presidential primaries without an incumbent.
Without counting many actual commitments, it's hard to predict where things might end. There's no real way to do the kind of scientific survey that we do for the general public. We are stuck reading tea leaves. However, these tea leaves suggest that democratic activists are apparently the most open-minded for someone like Harris.
The Iowa Democratic County leaders, for example, want a young person who has not yet run for president. This was the opinion of 43 out of 76 Iowa district chairpersons asked by the Wall Street Journal. Harris, who is only 54 years old, received strong ratings compared to opinion leaders like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
A separate measure from the advocacy primate of political scientist Seth Masket finds this similar. Masket has interviewed activists who traditionally worked in primary politics. Masket notes that the vast majority of them are not bound in Iowa and nationally with whom he has spoken. Of course, interviews of this kind are not necessarily representative of the pool of the larger activists.
More Iowa Democratic activists say they are open to Harris than any other candidate. In accordance with the Wall Street Journal's interviews, Masket's respondents ranked the young nominees Sen. Cory Booker second and Rep. Beto O & Rourke in third place.
Masket's interviews show nationally the potential support of Harris. A majority of activists said they had considered supporting them in the combined findings from Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Washington, DC. No other candidate (of more than a dozen) is being considered by a majority of activists at this time.
Masket is not the only one who finds a broad potential appeal for Harris in endorsement primary areas. Interviews of progressive women of the color group We The People point in the same direction. In a poll of colored women (from elected officials to staff working in political organizations), Harris was the only candidate listed by a majority of respondents when asked to make the top three decisions for 2020. O & Rourke posted a distant second for the support of the first three.
It's hard to find a more important primary group than colored women. They are by far the most democratically oriented, demographic group. Women powered by Color Hillary Clinton's Sweep of the Southeast in Primary 2016. Only last year, they were the basis for the shocking victory of Democrat Doug Jones in the special elections of the Alabama Senate.
Will the early positive signals for Harris in the primary endorsement end be successful if it becomes the primary primary primary next year? That's impossible to say. Even if Harris eventually earns the advocates from a variety of activists, this does not guarantee that voters will follow the leaders of the activists.
However, a Harris nomination makes perfect sense. The Democratic Party will become more and more non-white and nominated women in 2018 with record numbers. Since Harris is the only colored woman near the top class of the 2020 Democratic nomination, it should come as no surprise if she wins in the end.