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Home / Business / Liam Dann: The outlook for the IMF becomes gloomier as global risks increase

Liam Dann: The outlook for the IMF becomes gloomier as global risks increase



COMMENTARY:

As global leaders, including Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, move to the World Economic Forum in Davos, global economic prospects begin to darken again.

On the eve of the Swiss Talkfest The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has again lowered its forecasts for global economic growth – the second downgrade in three months.

Against the background of slowing Chinese GDP growth, US government stagnation, trade wars and continued Brexit uncertainty, this is the case It looks like a less optimistic start to the year than last year.

Also from Davos, PWC has published its annual survey of CEOs, whose results are showing increasingly pessimistic outlook.

Nearly 30 percent of the 1

300 PWC's surveyed business leaders expect global economic growth to decline over the next 12 months.

This time, just five percent was bleak last year – something PWC calls a record leap in pessimism.

At Davos 2018 There was a great deal of excitement about the emergence of synchronized global growth – that is, the economy of all the big nations that were shooting at once.

Things were all very optimistic. But if you blink, you may have missed it.

Global markets collapsed about a week later (February 6) and have been volatile ever since.

Oil prices have risen and plunged. Economic growth in Europe also seems to slow down.

The US Treasury's yield curve – the great harbinger of economic corruption – threatens to reverse, and there is much talk about when (and not if) the US will enter the next recession. 19659003] But despite all the headlines about uncertainty and renewed risk, it's important to see that the outlook is still largely positive – even if sentiment has cooled.

We should still see synchronized global growth this year and if it's not quite right It's still going down a financial crisis as soon as predicted.

The IMF now forecasts that the global economy will grow by 3.5% in 2019 and by 3.6% in 2020. This is a decline of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, in October and significantly less than the 3.9% predicted for 2019 at this time last year.

"After two years of solid expansion, the global economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising," said IMF Mana Ing. Director Christine Lagarde.

"Does this mean that a global recession is around the corner but the risk of a stronger downturn in global growth has certainly increased."

This is hardly catastrophic for the stability of the local economy – more of a precaution.

New Zealand is in its second decade of sustained economic growth It still enjoys one of the longest recession-free epochs.

The end may be near, it could be imminent or overdue, but until it arrives, it would be a shame to surrender to darkness. [19659022]
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